Analysis: Fusedmarc are heading for an unexpected victory in Lithuania

For those of us that follow Lithuania’s marathon Eurovision selection process, the complicated voting system can take a bit of getting used to. However, once we’ve got to grips with it we should be able to use the many previous heats to create a good prediction for the remaining two shows.

Our methodology

To do this, we’ve taken the Lithuanian jury results from the semi-final. The semi-final was recording this evening, and the national jury results have already been revealed. We’ve then looked back at the last two weeks of shows to analyse how the international jury and televoters are likely to vote for the remainder of the competition.
We must emphasise that the members of the national and international juries tend to vary from show to show, therefore it is difficult to make a bulletproof prediction and is the reason why results can vary so much even with the same songs competing over ten weeks. Nevertheless, patterns do form. We’ve put our analysis through the Lithuanian scoring system and the results of the semi-final and final are as follows.

Semi-final

While Fusedmarc scored the most televotes in the last round of heats, it is generally considered they were in the easier heat. On the other hand, Aistė has shown herself to have significant televoting support throughout the competition and we don’t expect this to come to a sudden end. On the other hand, Fusedmarc had struggled in the televote until finding sudden success with the public last week. It remains to be seen whether this was just an anomaly, but we’ve assumed it’s a genuine wave of momentum.
As mentioned above, those Lithuanian jury votes above are completely real and were revealed in the recording of the semi-final tonight. Therefore, if everything goes as expected, we will lose Kotryna and Ieva in Saturday’s semi-final. It is important to note that when there is a tie within the jury vote, LRT award the same points to each act and do not miss out the following set of points as a result.

Final

For the final we’ve used exactly the same votes we predicted in the semi-final, but removing Kotryna and Ieva from the equation. The removal of these two acts brings Fusedmarc closer to Aistė in the international jury vote and ultimately becomes the decisive factor. This allows the band to pull ahead in the overall jury vote, receiving two more points than Aistė in the process. Even if Aistė wins the televote ahead of Fusedmarc, the jury vote takes precedence in Lithuania. Overall, this would hand Fusedmarc a surprise win with Aistė losing out after winning every single show she’s participated in up until this moment.
Once again, Fusedmarc’s televote score is the potential prediction-breaker here. In their first two show appearances, they failed to make the top 3 in the televoting. Only last week they surprised everyone by dominating the televote. Whether their televoting momentum continues will likely be the decisive factor as to whether they can stop Aistė from winning at the final moment!

Voting format for the final still unclear

It’s important to note that last year, the international jury members and national jury combined to make one single jury vote. If this happens again this year, rather than keeping them separate, then that could throw a significant spanner in the works.
Do you agree with our predictions? Indeed, perhaps you have some predictions of your own? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below and via our social media platforms @escXtra!