Kyiv 2017

Salvador Sobral’s victory sees Portugal surge in betting

It’s only been a few good hours since Portugal chose their entry, but we can already see a clear effect. Not only is Portugal receiving praise galore for its entry, bookmakers have also picked up on it. All because of Salvador Sobral’s Amar Pelos Dois.

Portugal on the rise with bookmakers

Ever since Salvador’s song was revealed, we’ve seen a clear surge with bookmakers receiving bets for a Portuguese victory in Kyiv. Or rather: Ever since the first semifinal of Festival da Canção. Many expected it to be because of Amar Pelos Dois and it now becomes clear that this was indeed the case. Starting out at the bottom of the board weeks ago, Portugal have now arrived in the top ten. Eighth place is where they are right now, but odds are shortening across the board.

Portugal’s odds currently (Oddschecker)
Let’s get a little clearer than that, though. If you only take countries who have chosen their songs into account, Portugal is now third. Only Italy (first overall) and Romania (sixth overall) are ahead of the Portuguese. If you still want to place a bet on a Portuguese victory, you’d best go to Bet365, who still have Salvador’s entry at 20/1. Betfair on the other hand have already shortened the odds to 10/1.

Not the brightest history

Portugal have not had the biggest luck in the history of the Eurovision Song Contest. Despite being the favourite for the victory a couple of times, they never managed to do better than in 1996. Lúcia Moniz then finished in sixth place. That is to date also their last top ten result in a Eurovision final. Many fans seem to be expecting Portugal to come close to that result in 2017, if not do better than that.
Many seem to have thought Portugal’s bad luck in Eurovision was mostly due to them holding on to their own language, even after the free language rule was introduced. Portugal is, together with the English speaking nations and Italy, the only country who have never had an entry without their national language. That however doesn’t seem to bother many this year, judging by the fan and bookie reaction.

In short

So, to conclude: Portugal seem to be in a good place for the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest. Salvador Sobral might even get ready to do really well in Kyiv if we judge by fans and bookmakers, but the song’s character will surely divide the viewers and it might also divide juries. Is qualification certain? Nowhere near it, no, but it seems this will be Portugal’s best chance in years to make it through to Saturday’s show and to maybe even make it to the top ten.
What do you think? Will Salvador Sobral do as well or even better as the bookmakers and many fans currently think? Or is the song just a little too different to do well?

Nick van Lith

I'm one of the founding members of Eleven years after the start, I'm proud to say that I am now the Editor-in-Chief of this wonderful website. When I'm not doing Eurovision stuff, you should be able to find me teaching German to kids... And cheering on everything and everyone Greek, pretty much. Pame Ellada!

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