Kyiv 2017

Do the Charts Predict This Year’s Winner?

The winner of the Eurovision Song Contest, of course, tends to do very well across Europe in the music charts. We thought we’d take a look at the iTunes, Spotify, and YouTube charts to see who is already doing well; it’s likely that one of these songs could win the whole contest, as it did in 2014 and 2015!
We’ll start with the four big favourites to win the final on Saturday: Belgium, Bulgaria, Italy, and Portugal.


iTunes Spotify YouTube
#1 Belgium #4 Belgium None
#6 Sweden #11 Iceland
#9 Netherlands #12 Lithuania
#14 Portugal #16 Estonia
#16 Lithuania #37 Latvia
#17 Poland #89 Sweden
#30 Estonia #113 Poland
#32 Finland #165 Finland
#33 Denmark #194 Portugal
#43 Switzerland
#56 Austria
#78 Norway
#131 Germany
#166 Spain

Out of the four favourites, Belgium is charting in the most countries that are able to vote for it (15). It is doing extremely well in both the iTunes and Spotify charts, the best out of all the entries. However, it is yet to chart on YouTube for any country. Is this pointing at Belgium being our winner?


iTunes Spotify YouTube
#14 Sweden None None
#25 Norway
#28 Netherlands
#30 Poland
#53 Denmark
#58 Austria
#85 Switzerland
#97 Spain
#112 Ireland
#122 Russia
#125 Belgium

Bulgaria is also doing fairly well, despite only charting on iTunes. It has charted in 11 countries which are able to vote for it on Saturday.


iTunes Spotify YouTube
#14 Finland #20 Italy #2 Italy
#19 Italy #67 Iceland
#44 Switzerland
#72 Spain
#83 Sweden
#92 Italy
#121 Belgium
#187 Austria
#195 Norway

Italy is not doing as well as well as expected across Europe, despite being the runaway favourite for several months. Of the four fan favourites, it has charted in the fewest countries that are able to vote for it (8). According to the charts, Italy could shock Eurovision fans, and flop in the final!


iTunes Spotify YouTube
#1 Portugal #2 Portugal #10 Portugal
#17 Sweden #32 Lithuania
#20 Netherlands #40 Iceland
#28 Belarus
#34 Finland
#36 Lithuania
#40 Portugal
#43 Spain
#50 Norway
#64 Denmark
#70 Belgium
#77 Switzerland
#90 Austria
#176 Netherlands

Portugal is doing very well in the charts. It has charted in 12 countries which are able to vote for it in the final, better than both Bulgaria and Italy. Could this indicate a victory for Portugal, who have previously been given a very favourable position in the running order?

Honourable Mentions

Despite not being fan favourites, some countries have done surprisingly well in the charts.
Romania has charted in 8 countries that can vote for it, the same number as big fan favourite Italy. This could mean that Romania could surprise us, and do better than expected in the final!
Next, three countries, Australia, Israel, and The Netherlands have all charted in 5 voting countries, suggesting that these countries could also do well on Saturday.
As mentioned in a previous article, the United Kingdom and Croatia are likely to massively benefit from the running order. However, the United Kingdom is yet to chart in any country other than itself (where it is currently only at #82 on iTunes), whereas Croatia have only charted in 2 voting countries (on iTunes, #121 in Switzerland, #128 in Austria). The lifeline given to the United Kingdom and Croatia with the running order may not be enough for them to do well!
How is your favourite entry doing in the charts? Do you think Italy could do surprisingly bad on Saturday? Tell us in the comments!

Luke Malam

I've watched Eurovision for as long as I can remember, but my interest really built in 2008, after I decided to watch the semifinals online, out of boredom, before the final...I was blown away by the quality of the show and have been hooked ever since! I'm a competitive trampolinist and I love baking. I've also just completed a master's degree in Research Methods in Psychology at University College London.

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