🇪🇺 XTRA Odds: The Black Mamba rise as Daði Freyr falls

All semifinalists at Eurovision 2021 have now had their first rehearsal. That means that we’ve now seen all the favourites on stage at least once, with the exception of France and Italy, who will have their first rehearsal tomorrow. Portugal are on the move upwards, but Iceland have sort of dropped back after yesterday’s buzz.

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 6/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €6 if Måneskin do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Spain. Blas Cantó finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 11 May

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not?

🇵🇹 Our biggest winner of yesterday’s rehearsals is Portugal. The reaction to The Black Mamba’s rehearsal was very good. They delivered the biggest surprise yet, with a black and white 4:3 cinematic feel at the start of their song and interesting use of the transparent LED screen on the catwalk. Love Is On My Side has gained five spots, climbing from #24 to #19 and still shortening.
🇦🇱 A good response also happened for Albania. Their rehearsal, full of red, black and dry ice went down well. For a long time, Anxhela Peristeri was in last place when it comes to the winning odds. Now, it has to be said: This says not much about her chances to qualify. We probably won’t be heading to Tirana next year, but there’s always been a decent shot at qualification. Yesterday, Karma finished in third in our press poll. She has managed to leave her last place behind and has climbed two spots, to #37. Spain is now in last place.
🇮🇸 For Iceland, the news is less good. On Monday, Daði Freyr impressed with his rehearsal in Rotterdam. He easily won the press poll and started climbing with the bookies. For a while, it looked like he was about to join the leading pack of France, Malta and Switzerland. However, a day later and we see Iceland back at #6, where they started the week. Bulgaria’s impressive rehearsal and a close market between Italy and Iceland will have contributed there.
🇺🇦 A final, but short note about Ukraine: Their rise is still continuing. Coming from #16 before the Eurovision Song Contest rehearsals, GO_A now reach #9. Today, they only surpassed Sweden, who continue to drift. GO_A won the press poll on their first rehearsal day with quite the margin thanks to the folklore influences in their staging.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

Country	Entry	21/03	05/04	18/04	03/05	09/05	10/05
1. France	Barbara Pravi – Voilà	3	3	2	2	1	1
2. Malta	Destiny – Je me casse	1	1	1	1	2	2
3. Switzerland	Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers	2	2	3	3	3	3
4. Italy	Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni	5	5	4	4	4	5
5. Bulgaria	VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old	4	4	5	6	5	6
6. Iceland	Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years	8	7	8	5	6	4
7. Cyprus	Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo	9	11	12	9	8	7
8. Lithuania	The Roop – Discoteque	7	8	7	8	7	8
9. Ukraine	Go_A – Shum	19	18	18	16	12	10
10. Sweden	Tusse – Voices	6	6	6	7	9	9
11. Greece	Stefania – Last Dance	15	13	10	14	14	11
12. Finland	Blind Channel – Dark Side	10	12	13	11	10	12
13. San Marino	Senhit – Adrenalina	12	10	11	12	13	13
14. Russia	Manizha – Russian Woman	13	14	15	15	15	14
15. Norway	TIX – Fallen Angel	11	9	9	10	11	15
16. Romania	ROXEN – Amnesia	16	15	14	13	16	16
17. Israel	Eden Alene – Set Me Free	24	19	17	17	17	17
18. Croatia	Albina – Tick-Tock	20	21	22	21	20	18
19. Portugal	The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side	27	26	27	24	25	24
20. Belgium	Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place	18	20	20	19	19	19
21. Azerbaijan	Efendi – Mata Hari	17	17	19	18	18	20
22. Moldova	Natalia Gordienko – Sugar	14	16	16	20	21	21
23. United Kingdom	James Newman – Embers	21	22	23	23	22	22
24. Ireland	Lesley Roy – Maps	30	28	30	26	23	23
25. Serbia	Hurricane – Loco Loco	33	29	21	22	24	25
26. Austria	Vincent Bueno – Amen	23	24	25	27	27	26
27. Germany	Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate	31	30	29	29	28	27
28. Denmark	Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden	28	27	28	28	29	29
29. Australia	Montaigne – Technicolour	22	23	24	25	26	28
30. Latvia	Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising	26	32	32	32	31	31
31. The Netherlands	Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age	29	31	31	30	30	30
32. North Macedonia	Vasil – Here I Stand	34	25	26	31	33	33
33. Czech Republic	Benny Cristo – Omaga	38	35	36	33	32	32
34. Poland	Rafał – The Ride	25	33	33	34	34	34
35. Slovenia	Ana Soklič – Amen	37	38	38	36	36	35
36. Estonia	Uku Suviste – The Lucky One	36	37	37	38	37	37
37. Albania	Anxhela Peristeri – Karma	40	39	39	37	39	39
38. Georgia	Tornike Kipiani – You	32	36	34	39	38	36
39. Spain	Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme	39	34	35	35	35	38