This is an updated version of an article published in April 2017
Every year, many Eurovision fans eagerly await the results of the annual OGAE poll. OGAE is made up of over 40 fan clubs from around the world. For the poll, they cast votes in Eurovision’s classic 12 to 1 points system. With the OGAE voting historically taking place across April, it is the first time for fans to discover how a significant number of real people are reacting to this year’s entries.
OGAE voting hand-in-hand with betting odds?
Therefore, this can also have a knock-on effect in shaping the rankings at various betting agencies. Last month, we re-analysed how accurate betting odds from a month before the last eleven contests were in predicting the eventual finishing positions. There will be various references to this throughout the article below so it may be worth giving that a read first!
As in the betting odds analysis article, we have taken statistics from all 11 OGAE polls that have taken place. The poll was introduced in 2007 and has taken place every year since. Let’s have a look exactly how good an indicator the OGAE poll is for predicting the eventual results!
HELSINKI 2007
Between 2007 and 2010, the only figures we have been able to find is the top 5 placings via Wikipedia which we presume to be reliable as they cite OGAE International as their source. Therefore, you can see this below.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 184 | ๐ท๐ธย Serbia | Marija ล erifoviฤ โ Molitva | 1st |
| 2 | 159 | ๐ง๐พย Belarus | Koldun โ Work Your Magic | 6th |
| 3 | 155 | ๐จ๐ญย Switzerland | DJ Bobo โ Vampires Are Alive | SF (20th) |
| 4 | 142 | ๐จ๐พย Cyprus | Evridiki โ Comme ci, Comme รงa | SF (15th) |
| 5 | 107 | ๐ฌ๐ทย Greece | Sarbel โ Yassou Maria | 7th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placedย 1stย in the OGAE poll.
- 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 60% of the top 5 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
2007 was a strong start for the OGAE poll! OGAE members agreed with Eurovision televoters thatย Marija ล erifoviฤ fromย Serbia strongest entry in the contest. Notably, the eventual runner-up, Verka Serduchka fromย Ukraine, did not appear in the top 5 of the OGAE poll. This is just the first example of a coupleย where novelty acts are often underscored by OGAE members in comparison to Eurovision voters.
It is also worth noting thatย Belarus,ย Serbia andย Switzerland were all in the top 5 of the betting odds prior to the contest. Similarly to the underscoring of novelty acts, this is just the first example of several where OGAE rankings and betting odds rankings are strikingly similar.
BELGRADE 2008
Next, here are the top five finishers from the 2008 OGAE poll.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 308 | ๐ธ๐ชย Sweden | Charlotte Perrelli โ Hero | 18th |
| 2 | 216 | ๐จ๐ญย Switzerland | Paolo Meneguzzi โ Era Stupendo | SF (13th) |
| 3 | 178 | ๐ท๐ธย Serbia | Jelena Tomaลกeviฤ feat. Bora Dugiฤ โ Oro | 6th |
| 4 | 145 | ๐ฎ๐ธย Iceland | Euroband โ This Is My Life | 14th |
| 5 | 145 | ๐ณ๐ดย Norway | Maria โ Hold On Be Strong | 5th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placedย outside the top 5ย in the OGAE poll.
- 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 20% of the top 5 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
In complete contrast to the previous year, the OGAE results and betting odds showed little resemblance in 2008.ย Whileย Serbia was the only country to appear in the top 5 of the OGAE poll and the betting odds, onlyย Norway appeared in the top 5 of the OGAE poll and the Eurovision final results.
Russia‘s Dima Bilan was nowhere to be seen amongst the top of the OGAE poll. More surprisingly in hindsight was the absence ofย Ukraine‘s Ani Lorak,ย Greece‘s Kalomira andย Armenia‘s Sirusho. These three female ethnic dance-pop entries are often looked back on fondly by Eurovision fans of today.
MOSCOW 2009
Up next is the 2009 OGAE poll! The top five finishers were as follows.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 304 | ๐ณ๐ดย Norway | Alexander Rybak โ Fairytale | 1st |
| 2 | 176 | ๐ซ๐ทย France | Patricia Kaas โ Et Sโil Fallait Le Faire | 8th |
| 3 | 159 | ๐ธ๐ชย Sweden | Malena Ernman โ La Voix | 21st |
| 4 | 142 | ๐ง๐ฆย Bosnia & Herzegovina | Regina โ Bistra Voda | 9th |
| 5 | 123 | ๐ช๐ธย Spain | Soraya โ La Noche Es Para Mรญ (The Night Is For Me) | 24th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placedย 1stย in the OGAE poll.
- 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 20% of the top 5 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
2009 was all aboutย Norway. Alexander topped the OGAE poll, the betting odds and the Eurovision final scoreboard. Nothing else quite matched up though. The pre-contest betting odds were much more on the ball, predicting 60% of the top 5 correctly. Nevertheless, neither the betting odds or OGAE sawย Iceland coming. Yohanna was nowhere to be seen in the OGAE poll and barely scraped into the top 15 of the betting odds.
Once again we see OGAE resist voting for popular ethno-pop tracks. Neitherย AySel and Arash from Azerbaijanย or Hadise fromย Turkey were as popular with OGAE as they were with Eurovision voters.
OSLO 2010
Now it’s time for the last of our top 5s! The top 5 from the 2010 OGAE pollย were as follows.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 220 | ๐ฉ๐ฐย Denmark | Chanรฉe & Nโevergreen โ In A Moment Like This | 4th |
| 2 | 177 | ๐ฎ๐ฑย Israel | Harel Skaat โ Milim | 14th |
| 3 | 172 | ๐ฉ๐ชย Germany | Lena โ Satellite | 1st |
| 4 | 146 | ๐ณ๐ดย Norway | Didrik Solli-Tangen โ My Heart Is Yours | 20th |
| 5 | 130 | ๐ฎ๐ธย Iceland | Hera Bjรถrk โ Je Ne Sais Quoi | 19th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placedย 3rd in the OGAE poll.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 60% of the top 5 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
After two anomalous years, OGAE were back in sync with the betting odds to a significant degree here.ย Germany,ย Denmark andย Israel were found in the top 5 of both rankings andย Norway weren’t a million miles away in the odds either. Interestingly,ย Denmark took the OGAE victory here whereas the more modern and contemporary Lena was cast aside.
As was the case in the betting odds, the OGAE found limited appeal inย Romania andย Turkey who completed the top 3 in Oslo. Nevertheless, OGAE did go against the grain by not voting in droves forย Azerbaijan. Indeed, Safura was joint-favourite to win the contest as the OGAE poll was being carried out.
DรSSELDORFย 2011
In 2011, 33 fan clubs voted for their favourite entries of that year. The top 15 finishers were as follows.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 277 | ๐ญ๐บย Hungary | Kati Wolf โ What About My Dreams? | 22nd |
| 2 | 270 | ๐ซ๐ทย France | Amaury Vassili โ Sognu | 15th |
| 3 | 253 | ๐ฌ๐งย United Kingdom | Blue โ I Can | 11th |
| 4 | 238 | ๐ธ๐ชย Sweden | Eric Saade โ Popular | 3rd |
| 5 | 183 | ๐ช๐ชย Estonia | Getter Jaani โ Rockefeller Street | 24th |
| 6 | 119 | ๐ง๐ฆย Bosnia & Herzegovina | Dino Merlin โ Love In Rewind | 6th |
| 7 | 117 | ๐ฆ๐ฟย Azerbaijan | Ell & Nikki โ Running Scared | 1st |
| 8 | 56 | ๐ฉ๐ฐย Denmark | A Friend In London โ New Tomorrow | 5th |
| 9 | 50 | ๐ฉ๐ชย Germany | Lena โ Taken By A Stranger | 10th |
| 10 | 43 | ๐ณ๐ดย Norway | Stella Mwangi โ Haba Haba | SF (17th) |
| 11 | 34 | ๐ต๐ฑย Poland | Magdalena Tul โ Jestem | SF (19th) |
| 12 | 28 | ๐ฎ๐นย Italy | Raphael Gualazzi โ Madness Of Love | 2nd |
| 13 | 27 | ๐ท๐ดย Romania | Hotel FM โ Change | 17th |
| 14 | 27 | ๐ฎ๐ฑย Israel | Dana International โ Ding Dong | SF (15th) |
| 15 | 26 | ๐ฆ๐นย Austria | Nadine Beilerย โ The Secret Is Love | 18th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placedย 7thย in the OGAE poll.
- 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 87% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
2011 is considered one of the most unpredictable contests in recent years with onlyย Sweden managing to live up to expectations amongst the front-runners. Eventual winnersย Azerbaijan placed 7th in the OGAE poll proving that this seemingly unpopular winner did have a number of fans amongst the Eurovision community. Interestingly enough, Azerbaijan was also placed 7th in the betting odds prior to the contest which is just the start of a more striking similarity than ever before.
Remarkably, 13 of the top 15 countries in the betting odds were also in the top 15 in the OGAE poll. The only disagreements were that OGAE placedย Austria andย Israel inside their top 15 while the odds favouredย Ireland andย Russia. Indeed, the top 7 countries in the OGAE poll were the exact same 7 found at the top of the betting odds, in a slightly shuffled order. For such an unpredictable contest it is strange to find such harmony between two different variables.
BAKU 2012
The OGAE poll continued to increase in popularity asย 35 fan clubs voted for their favourite entries ahead of the 2012 contest. Here are the top 15!
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 375 | ๐ธ๐ชย Sweden | Loreen โ Euphoria | 1st |
| 2 | 212 | ๐ฎ๐นย Italy | Nina Zilli โ Lโamore รจ femmina (Out Of Love) | 9th |
| 3 | 211 | ๐ฎ๐ธย Iceland | Greta Salรณme and Jรณnsi โ Never Forget | 20th |
| 4 | 199 | ๐ท๐ธย Serbia | ลฝeljko Joksimoviฤ โ Nije Ljubav Stvar | 3rd |
| 5 | 164 | ๐ณ๐ดย Norway | Tooji โ Stay | 26th |
| 6 | 150 | ๐ช๐ธย Spain | Pastora Soler โ Quรฉdate Conmigo (Stay With Me) | 10th |
| 7 | 104 | ๐จ๐พย Cyprus | Ivi Adamou โ La La Love | 16th |
| 8 | 81 | ๐ช๐ชย Estonia | Ott Lepland โ Kuula | 6th |
| 9 | 78 | ๐ฉ๐ชย Germany | Roman Lob โ Standing Still | 8th |
| 10 | 62 | ๐ซ๐ทย France | Anggun – Echo (You And I) | 22nd |
| 11 | 52 | ๐ท๐ดย Romania | Mandinga โ Zaleilah | 12th |
| 12 | 43 | ๐ณ๐ฑย The Netherlands | Joan Franka – You And Me | SF (15th) |
| 13 | 42 | ๐ท๐บย Russia | Buranovskiye Babushki โ Party For Everybody | 2nd |
| 14 | 41 | ๐ฌ๐งย United Kingdom | Engelbert Humperdinck โ Love Will Set You Free | 25th |
| 15 | 33 | ๐ฌ๐ทย Greece | Eleftheria Eleftheriou โ Aphrodisiac | 17th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1stย in the OGAE poll.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
In a repeat of 2009, Sweden‘sย Loreen was the dominant force in the Eurovision results, OGAE poll and betting odds alike.ย Serbia was also found in the top 5 of each variable. Nevertheless, as we saw with Verka Serduchka in 2007, OGAE voters tend to underscore high profile novelty acts in comparison to their ultimate Eurovision success. While 3rd in the betting odds and 2nd in the contest, Buranovskiye Babushki only just scraped into the OGAE top 15.
The OGAE poll once again showed a remarkable similarity to the betting odds, with 12 countries appearing in the top 15 of both sets of rankings. However, both of them completely overlookedย Azerbaijan andย Albania who sailed into the top 5. Nevertheless, OGAE members can pat themselves on the back for recognising the quality ofย Estonia‘s entry which betting agencies hadn’t seen coming at all.
MALMร 2013
39 fan clubs cast their votes for their favourite entries of 2013. In this instance, the top 15 finishers were as follows.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 374 | ๐ฉ๐ฐย Denmark | Emmelie de Forest โ Only Teardrops | 1st |
| 2 | 282 | ๐ธ๐ฒย San Marino | Valentina Monetta โ Crisalide (Vola) | SF (11th) |
| 3 | 269 | ๐ณ๐ดย Norway | Margaret Berger โ I Feed You My Love | 4th |
| 4 | 195 | ๐ฉ๐ชย Germany | Cascada โ Glorious | 21st |
| 5 | 177 | ๐ฎ๐นย Italy | Marco Mengoni โ LโEssenziale | 7th |
| 6 | 147 | ๐ณ๐ฑย The Netherlands | Anouk โ Birds | 9th |
| 7 | 119 | ๐บ๐ฆย Ukraine | Zlata Ognevich โ Gravity | 3rd |
| 8 | 119 | ๐ฌ๐งย United Kingdom | Bonnie Tyler โ Believe In Me | 19th |
| 9 | 103 | ๐ธ๐ชย Sweden | Robin Stjernberg โ You | 14th |
| 10 | 83 | ๐ท๐บย Russia | Dina Garipova โ What If | 5th |
| 11 | 61 | ๐ฆ๐ฟย Azerbaijan | Farid Mammadov โ Hold Me | 2nd |
| 12 | 41 | ๐ฎ๐ธย Iceland | Eythor Ingi โ รg ร Lรญf | 17th |
| 13 | 37 | ๐ฌ๐ชย Georgia | Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani โ Waterfall | 15th |
| 14 | 32 | ๐ฎ๐ฑย Israel | Moran Mazor โ Rak Bishvilo | SF (14th) |
| 15 | 30 | ๐จ๐ญย Switzerland | Takasa โ You And Me | SF (13th) |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1stย in the OGAE poll.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
It was a repeat of 2012 in 2013 withย Denmark easily winning the OGAE poll, the betting odds and the Eurovision final. Once again the OGAE poll and betting odds proved similar with 12 of their top 15s consisting of the same countries. OGAE voters didn’t find the same appeal inย Azerbaijan‘s entry as Eurovision voters did, perhaps proving the success ofย Hold Me was as much down to the fantastic staging as it was the song.
Notably, OGAE ranked Valentina Monetta’s second attempt forย San Marino as the second best song in the contest. Whileย Crisalide (Vola) became the country’s best result at the contest, it still failed to make the grand final.ย Germany and theย United Kingdom were two entries that appealed to OGAE much more than Eurovision voters. Perhaps the well-known names of Cascada and Bonnie Tyler created extra attention for those songs. The betting odds similarly overrated them.
COPENHAGEN 2014
The OGAE poll continues to get bigger as 40 fan clubs decided who would win the 2014 edition of the vote. The top 15 were as follows.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 354 | ๐ธ๐ชย Sweden | Sanna Nielsen โ Undo | 3rd |
| 2 | 262 | ๐ญ๐บย Hungary | Andrรกs Kรกllay-Saunders โ Running | 5th |
| 3 | 233 | ๐ฎ๐ฑย Israel | Mei Finegold โ Same Heart | SF (14th) |
| 4 | 221 | ๐ฆ๐นย Austria | Conchita Wurst โย Rise Like A Phoenix | 1st |
| 5 | 162 | ๐ฌ๐งย United Kingdom | Molly โ Children Of The Universe | 17th |
| 6 | 157 | ๐ฆ๐ฒย Armenia | Aram MP3 โ Not Alone | 4th |
| 7 | 132 | ๐ณ๐ดย Norway | Carl Espen โ Silent Storm | 8th |
| 8 | 111 | ๐ช๐ธย Spain | Ruth Lorenzoย โย Dancing In The Rain | 10th |
| 9 | 104 | ๐ฌ๐ทย Greece | Freaky Fortune feat. RiskyKidd โ Rise Up | 20th |
| 10 | 79 | ๐ฒ๐ชย Montenegro | Sergej ฤetkoviฤ โ Moj Svijet | 19th |
| 11 | 76 | ๐ฎ๐นย Italy | Emma Marrone โ La Mia Cittร | 21st |
| 12 | 73 | ๐ฉ๐ฐย Denmark | Basim โ Clichรฉ Love Song | 9th |
| 13 | 35 | ๐ซ๐ทย France | TWIN TWINย โย Moustache | 26th |
| 14 | 33 | ๐ฎ๐ชย Ireland | Can-Linn feat. Kasey Smith โ Heartbeat | SF (12th) |
| 15 | 31 | ๐ณ๐ฑย The Netherlands | The Common Linnets โย Calm After The Storm | 2nd |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 4thย in the OGAE poll.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 67% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
Oh 2014, the year no-one could’ve predicted. Or could they? Well not quite, but the OGAE poll placed both of the year’s big surprise packages in its top 15. In contrast, neitherย Austria‘s Conchita Wurst or The Common Linnets fromย The Netherlands were considered amongst the top 15 favourite to win at the betting agencies. Both entries were praised for lifting the bar of staging at Eurovision. However, OGAE members wouldn’t have known what was to appear on the Copenhagen stage so all credit to them for spotting the quality ahead of time!
However, the OGAE favourite to fall at the first hurdle in Copenhagen wasย Israel. Mei Finegold’s uptempo dance-pop entry with a key change satisfied all the traditional Eurovision tick boxes and its appeal to long-term fans of the contest was obvious. Nevertheless, the appeal wasn’t there for the casual Eurovision voters as it finished next to last in its semi-final.
VIENNA 2015
Ahead of the 2015 contest in Vienna, 41 fan clubs chose their favourite entries. The results were as follows.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 367 | ๐ฎ๐นย Italy | Il Volo โ Grande Amore | 3rd |
| 2 | 338 | ๐ธ๐ชย Sweden | Mรฅns Zelmerlรถw โ Heroes | 1st |
| 3 | 274 | ๐ช๐ชย Estonia | Elina Born & Stig Rรคsta โ Goodbye To Yesterday | 7th |
| 4 | 243 | ๐ณ๐ดย Norway | Mรธrland & Debrah Scarlett โ A Monster Like Me | 8th |
| 5 | 228 | ๐ธ๐ฎย Slovenia | Maraaya โ Here For You | 14th |
| 6 | 174 | ๐ฆ๐บย Australia | Guy Sebastian โ Tonight Again | 5th |
| 7 | 150 | ๐ฎ๐ฑย Israel | Nadav Guedjย โ Golden Boy | 9th |
| 8 | 136 | ๐ช๐ธย Spain | Edurne โ Amanecer | 21st |
| 9 | 97 | ๐ฆ๐ฟย Azerbaijan | Elnur Huseynov โ Hour Of The Wolf | 12th |
| 10 | 77 | ๐ง๐ชย Belgium | Loรฏc Nottet โ Rhythm Inside | 4th |
| 11 | 74 | ๐ท๐บย Russia | Polina Gagarina โ A Million Voices | 2nd |
| 12 | 37 | ๐ฆ๐ฑย Albania | Elhaida Dani โ Iโm Alive | 17th |
| 13 | 27 | ๐ซ๐ทย France | Lisa Angellย โ N’oubliez Pas | 25th |
| 14 | 26 | ๐ฒ๐ชย Montenegro | Knezย โ Adio | 13th |
| 15 | 20 | ๐ฌ๐งย United Kingdom | Electro Velvetย โ Still In Love With You | 24th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 2ndย in the OGAE poll.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
The OGAE poll did a pretty good job of predicting the qualifiers in Vienna. All of the top 15 qualified, the first and only time they have done so. Perhaps the biggest surprise here was the absence ofย Latviaย inside the OGAE top 15. Aminata wasn’t inside the top 15 of the odds either, although considering Latvia’s track record at the contest and the alternative vibe to the entry it was understandable. However, looking back Aminata is considered a fan favourite from the contest. Therefore it is remarkable that Latvia didn’t only fail toย make the top 15 of the poll, but actually scoredย nil points!
Nevertheless, OGAE voters did match the tastes of Eurovision voters regardingย Finland. While betting agencies ranked them inside the top 5 to win, perhaps due to the media attention Pertti Kurikan Nimipรคivรคt were receiving, the OGAE poll showed that the appeal to the public may not translate. While it is worth noting that Finland would’ve qualified in 10th place if televoting alone was in place, the Finnish band were never in contention for victory.
STOCKHOLM 2016
Ahead of the 2016 contest, 43 fan clubs submitted their top 10s in order to find out the winner of the 2016 OGAE poll. The top 15 finishers are listed below.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 425 | ๐ซ๐ทย France | Amir โ Jโai cherchรฉ | 6th |
| 2 | 392 | ๐ท๐บย Russia | Sergey Lazarev โ You Are The Only One | 3rd |
| 3 | 280 | ๐ฆ๐บย Australia | Dami Im โ Sound Of Silence | 2nd |
| 4 | 175 | ๐ง๐ฌย Bulgaria | Poli Genova โ If Love Was A Crime | 4th |
| 5 | 170 | ๐ฎ๐นย Italy | Francesca Michielin โ No Degree Of Separation | 16th |
| 6 | 155 | ๐ช๐ธย Spain | Bareiย โ Say Yay! | 22nd |
| 7 | 128 | ๐ฆ๐นย Austria | ZOร โย Loin d’ici | 13th |
| 8 | 110 | ๐ฑ๐ปย Latvia | Justs โ Heartbeat | 15th |
| 9 | 88 | ๐บ๐ฆย Ukraine | Jamala โ 1944 | 1st |
| 10 | 80 | ๐ญ๐บย Hungary | Freddieย โย Pioneer | 19th |
| 11 | 79 | ๐ธ๐ชย Sweden | Frans โ If I Were Sorry | 5th |
| 12 | 63 | ๐ญ๐ทย Croatia | Nina Kraljiฤ โย Lighthouse | 23rd |
| 13 | 59 | ๐จ๐พย Cyprus | Minus Oneย โย Alter Ego | 21st |
| 14 | 44 | ๐ฎ๐ธย Iceland | Greta Salรณmeย โ Hear Them Calling | SF (14th) |
| 15 | 42 | ๐ท๐ธย Serbia | Sanja Vuฤiฤ ZAA โ Goodbye (Shelter) | 18th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 9thย in the OGAE poll.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 73% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
2016 was perhaps the most impressive display from OGAE voters in matching their taste with the ultimate Eurovision voter favourites. 3 of the top 5 at Eurovision were in the top 5 of the OGAE poll andย France was one place away from making it a record-breaking four.ย Amongst the highest finishers in Stockholm,ย Armeniaย is anย entry completely overlooked by OGAE voters.ย LoveWaveย is a very alternative entry that many fans agree didn’t reach its potential until the live performance at the contest. Therefore, Iveta Mukuchyan’s poor showing in the OGAE poll perhaps isn’t unexpected.
However, one entry that OGAE voters did see the appeal of wasย Austria.ย ZOร was never fancied by the betting agencies to finish highly. Nevertheless, the OGAE poll signified thatย Loin d’ici did have an appeal and that appeal translated to the casual Eurovision viewer, perhaps unexpectedly for some (including me, although it was a very pleasing surprise!).
KYIV 2017
Last year, a record-breaking 44 fan clubs voted for their favourite 2017 Eurovision entry. The top 15 finishers are listed below.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 497 | ๐ฎ๐นย Italy | Francesco Gabbani – Occidentali’s Karma | 6th |
| 2 | 335 | ๐ง๐ชย Belgium | Blanche – City Lights | 4th |
| 3 | 308 | ๐ธ๐ชย Sweden | Robin Bengtsson – I Can’t Go On | 5th |
| 4 | 277 | ๐ซ๐ทย France | Alma – Requiem | 12th |
| 5 | 242 | ๐ช๐ชย Estonia | Koit Toome & Laura – Verona | SF (14th) |
| 6 | 122 | ๐ต๐นย Portugal | Salvador Sobral – Amar Pelos Dois | 1st |
| 7 | 120 | ๐ง๐ฌย Bulgaria | Kristian Kostov – Beautiful Mess | 2nd |
| 8 | 107 | ๐ฒ๐ฐย F.Y.R. Macedonia | Jana Burฤeska – Dance Alone | SF (15th) |
| 9 | 102 | ๐ฎ๐ฑย Israel | IMRI – I Feel Alive | 23rd |
| 10 | 64 | ๐ซ๐ฎย Finland | Norma John – Blackbird | SF (12th) |
| 11 | 43 | ๐ฉ๐ฐย Denmark | Anja – Where I Am | 20th |
| 12 | 41 | ๐จ๐ญย Switzerland | Timebelle – Apollo | SF (12th) |
| 13 | 40 | ๐ญ๐บย Hungary | Joci Pรกpai – Origo | 8th |
| 14 | 36 | ๐ฆ๐บย Australia | Isaiah – Don’t Come Easy | 9th |
| 15 | 34 | ๐ฆ๐ฟย Azerbaijan | Dihaj – Skeletons | 14th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 6thย in the OGAE poll.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 73% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
2017 was very hit or miss for our OGAE voters with a record-breaking four of the OGAE top 15 failing to qualify for the final. The betting odds didn’t fall into the same trap, with only Estonia of the four sneaking in of the top 15 of the pre-rehearsal odds. Nevertheless, the OGAE voters and betting odds largely agreed once again with only Israel, as well as 3 of the 4 non-qualifers, being favoured by the OGAE voters.
Italy was strongly favoured by both with eventual winners Portugal in contention, but never really considered obvious challengers by both variables. One top 10 finisher that was inside the top 15 of the odds, but not inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll was Romania‘s Yodel It!. Once again, this is further evidence that hardcore Eurovision fans tend to undermark entries with a novelty aspect in comparison to Eurovision votes on the night.
Key findings
The mathematical stuff
As with the previous article about betting odds, it is nice just to reminisce and look back at past statistics… at least it is for me! Although once again I have attempted to make a couple of conclusions about what we’ve discovered. I’m not going to pretend to be a mathematical genius. Yet, I have plotted the percentages that were written under each contest’s leaderboard throughout this article into a little graph.
Theย orange line showsย what percentage of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE votingย that year.ย Theย greyย line showsย what percentage of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE voting that year. Theย dashed orangeย line shows an overall trend over the past 11 years regarding how accurate the top 5 in the OGAE poll have been in predicting the top 5 finishers in any order. Finally, theย yellow line shows the percentage of countries that were found in both the top 5 (2007-10) or top 15 (2011-17) of the OGAE poll and the betting odds.
OGAE polls are becoming increasingly accurate
Due to only having OGAE top 15s from 2011 onwards, we had to compare the top 5s from the past eleven years to create a worthwhile trend. Of course, such a small sample is prone to random fluctuations. Nevertheless, you can see a significant trend on the graph. As the years have progressed, the OGAE top 5 has becomeย increasingly similar to the eventual Eurovision top 5.
In the first five years we’ve analysed, onlyย once did the OGAE poll have more than one country that finished in the Eurovision top 5 in its own top 5. In contrast, in the most recent six years, the OGAE poll had more than one country that finished in the Eurovision top 5 in its own top 5 on every single occasion. Therefore, in recent years the OGAE has become increasingly accurate at predicting the make-up of the Eurovision top 5.
Betting odds and OGAE polls: strikingly similar
Perhaps an even more noticeable trend from the graph is just how similar the countries that make up the OGAE top 15s and the betting odds top 15s are. Let’s take the statistics from 2011 onwards in which top 15s rather than top 5s were available. On every single occasion at least ten countries were found in both the top 15 of the OGAE poll and the betting odds. Furthermore, in the majority of cases (4 out of 7),ย at least twelve countries were found in both top 15s.
Is this a case of which came first, the chicken or the egg? Why are betting odds and the OGAE poll often so similar in regards to which countries rank the highest? Why are they more similar to each other than either of them are to the actual Eurovision results? Do the betting odds influence OGAE voters? Do OGAE voters influence betting odds? Perhaps it is a bit of both?
Who is copying who?
Betting odds don’t tend to change massively throughout the end of March and into April when the OGAE votes are taking place. Of course, OGAE members are hardcore Eurovision fans. Theyย will have watched many national finals. They will have listened to entries many times.ย Also, they will have been paying close attention to which entries are the favourites.ย These are all thingsย the casual Eurovision viewer and voter would not do.
Therefore, it is possibly understandable that OGAE voters are subconsciously influenced by betting odds. “So many people should like this song judging by its betting popularity so why don’t I? Let me listen to it a few more times”. Or on the other hand: “if this song has a chance of winning I need to let it grow on me so I’m not upset if it does win!”. Okay, that second statement may just be what I do when I’m watching endless national selections. Yet, you never know!
Other observations
There are also other themes that can be found throughout the analysis of each OGAE poll. Hardcore Eurovision fans tend to undermark novelty entries. Perhaps it’s a subconscious (or conscious!) protest against a song cheapening the contest’s reputation? In addition, there are occasions where a song that appeals to OGAE voters goes on to appeal to Eurovision voters. This is despite betting odds completely overlookingย the entry. Key examples here include Ott Lepland from Estonia, Nadav Guedj from Israel, ZOร from Austria and, of course, Conchita Wurst!
In conclusion, the OGAE poll is often just as good an indicator as betting odds are. This is shown by the striking similarity between the two for the majority of years. However, the OGAE poll is more susceptible to overrating certain fan favourites even more than betting odds do. For example, Mei Finegold’s Same Heart,ย Valentina Monetta’sย Crisalide (Vola), Kati Wolf’sย What About My Dreams?, Charlotte Perrelli’sย Hero or Jana Burฤeska’sย Dance Alone. Many people would agree that these were obviously overrated fan favourites. Nevertheless, lying underneath the fan favourite bias is another worthwhile, yet imperfectย indicator of results.
Stay tuned to ESCXTRA for the final outcome of the 2018 OGAE poll, scheduled to conclude later this month. If you have any theories regarding any of the points mentioned throughout this article then don’t hesitate to leave them in the comments section below or via our social media pages @ESCXTRA – I’m sure they will be just as valid if not more valid than my very own!
