Analysing eleven years of OGAE voting: “Strikingly similar” to betting odds

This is an updated version of an article published in April 2017

Every year, many Eurovision fans eagerly await the results of the annual OGAE poll. OGAE is made up of over 40 fan clubs from around the world. For the poll, they cast votes in Eurovision’s classic 12 to 1 points system. With the OGAE voting historically taking place across April, it is the first time for fans to discover how a significant number of real people are reacting to this year’s entries.

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OGAE voting hand-in-hand with betting odds?

Therefore, this can also have a knock-on effect in shaping the rankings at various betting agencies. Last month, we re-analysed how accurate betting odds from a month before the last eleven contests were in predicting the eventual finishing positions. There will be various references to this throughout the article below so it may be worth giving that a read first!
As in the betting odds analysis article, we have taken statistics from all 11 OGAE polls that have taken place. The poll was introduced in 2007 and has taken place every year since. Let’s have a look exactly how good an indicator the OGAE poll is for predicting the eventual results!

HELSINKI 2007

Between 2007 and 2010, the only figures we have been able to find is the top 5 placings via Wikipedia which we presume to be reliable as they cite OGAE International as their source. Therefore, you can see this below.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	184	🇷🇸 Serbia	Marija Šerifović – Molitva	1st
2	159	🇧🇾 Belarus	Koldun – Work Your Magic	6th
3	155	🇨🇭 Switzerland	DJ Bobo – Vampires Are Alive	SF (20th)
4	142	🇨🇾 Cyprus	Evridiki – Comme ci, Comme ça	SF (15th)
5	107	🇬🇷 Greece	Sarbel – Yassou Maria	7th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 1st in the OGAE poll.
• 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 60% of the top 5 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 5 of the OGAE poll.

2007 was a strong start for the OGAE poll! OGAE members agreed with Eurovision televoters that Marija Šerifović from Serbia strongest entry in the contest. Notably, the eventual runner-up, Verka Serduchka from Ukraine, did not appear in the top 5 of the OGAE poll. This is just the first example of a couple where novelty acts are often underscored by OGAE members in comparison to Eurovision voters.
It is also worth noting that Belarus, Serbia and Switzerland were all in the top 5 of the betting odds prior to the contest. Similarly to the underscoring of novelty acts, this is just the first example of several where OGAE rankings and betting odds rankings are strikingly similar.

BELGRADE 2008

Next, here are the top five finishers from the 2008 OGAE poll.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	308	🇸🇪 Sweden	Charlotte Perrelli – Hero	18th
2	216	🇨🇭 Switzerland	Paolo Meneguzzi – Era Stupendo	SF (13th)
3	178	🇷🇸 Serbia	Jelena Tomašević feat. Bora Dugić – Oro	6th
4	145	🇮🇸 Iceland	Euroband – This Is My Life	14th
5	145	🇳🇴 Norway	Maria – Hold On Be Strong	5th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed outside the top 5 in the OGAE poll.
• 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 20% of the top 5 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 5 of the OGAE poll.

In complete contrast to the previous year, the OGAE results and betting odds showed little resemblance in 2008. While Serbia was the only country to appear in the top 5 of the OGAE poll and the betting odds, only Norway appeared in the top 5 of the OGAE poll and the Eurovision final results.
Russia‘s Dima Bilan was nowhere to be seen amongst the top of the OGAE poll. More surprisingly in hindsight was the absence of Ukraine‘s Ani Lorak, Greece‘s Kalomira and Armenia‘s Sirusho. These three female ethnic dance-pop entries are often looked back on fondly by Eurovision fans of today.

MOSCOW 2009

Up next is the 2009 OGAE poll! The top five finishers were as follows.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	304	🇳🇴 Norway	Alexander Rybak – Fairytale	1st
2	176	🇫🇷 France	Patricia Kaas – Et S’il Fallait Le Faire	8th
3	159	🇸🇪 Sweden	Malena Ernman – La Voix	21st
4	142	🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina	Regina – Bistra Voda	9th
5	123	🇪🇸 Spain	Soraya – La Noche Es Para Mí (The Night Is For Me)	24th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 1st in the OGAE poll.
• 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 20% of the top 5 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 5 of the OGAE poll.

2009 was all about Norway. Alexander topped the OGAE poll, the betting odds and the Eurovision final scoreboard. Nothing else quite matched up though. The pre-contest betting odds were much more on the ball, predicting 60% of the top 5 correctly. Nevertheless, neither the betting odds or OGAE saw Iceland coming. Yohanna was nowhere to be seen in the OGAE poll and barely scraped into the top 15 of the betting odds.
Once again we see OGAE resist voting for popular ethno-pop tracks. Neither AySel and Arash from Azerbaijan or Hadise from Turkey were as popular with OGAE as they were with Eurovision voters.

OSLO 2010

Now it’s time for the last of our top 5s! The top 5 from the 2010 OGAE poll were as follows.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	220	🇩🇰 Denmark	Chanée & N’evergreen – In A Moment Like This	4th
2	177	🇮🇱 Israel	Harel Skaat – Milim	14th
3	172	🇩🇪 Germany	Lena – Satellite	1st
4	146	🇳🇴 Norway	Didrik Solli-Tangen – My Heart Is Yours	20th
5	130	🇮🇸 Iceland	Hera Björk – Je Ne Sais Quoi	19th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 3rd in the OGAE poll.
• 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 60% of the top 5 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 5 of the OGAE poll.

After two anomalous years, OGAE were back in sync with the betting odds to a significant degree here. Germany, Denmark and Israel were found in the top 5 of both rankings and Norway weren’t a million miles away in the odds either. Interestingly, Denmark took the OGAE victory here whereas the more modern and contemporary Lena was cast aside.
As was the case in the betting odds, the OGAE found limited appeal in Romania and Turkey who completed the top 3 in Oslo. Nevertheless, OGAE did go against the grain by not voting in droves for Azerbaijan. Indeed, Safura was joint-favourite to win the contest as the OGAE poll was being carried out.

DÜSSELDORF 2011

In 2011, 33 fan clubs voted for their favourite entries of that year. The top 15 finishers were as follows.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	277	🇭🇺 Hungary	Kati Wolf – What About My Dreams?	22nd
2	270	🇫🇷 France	Amaury Vassili – Sognu	15th
3	253	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	Blue – I Can	11th
4	238	🇸🇪 Sweden	Eric Saade – Popular	3rd
5	183	🇪🇪 Estonia	Getter Jaani – Rockefeller Street	24th
6	119	🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina	Dino Merlin – Love In Rewind	6th
7	117	🇦🇿 Azerbaijan	Ell & Nikki – Running Scared	1st
8	56	🇩🇰 Denmark	A Friend In London – New Tomorrow	5th
9	50	🇩🇪 Germany	Lena – Taken By A Stranger	10th
10	43	🇳🇴 Norway	Stella Mwangi – Haba Haba	SF (17th)
11	34	🇵🇱 Poland	Magdalena Tul – Jestem	SF (19th)
12	28	🇮🇹 Italy	Raphael Gualazzi – Madness Of Love	2nd
13	27	🇷🇴 Romania	Hotel FM – Change	17th
14	27	🇮🇱 Israel	Dana International – Ding Dong	SF (15th)
15	26	🇦🇹 Austria	Nadine Beiler – The Secret Is Love	18th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 7th in the OGAE poll.
• 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
• 87% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

2011 is considered one of the most unpredictable contests in recent years with only Sweden managing to live up to expectations amongst the front-runners. Eventual winners Azerbaijan placed 7th in the OGAE poll proving that this seemingly unpopular winner did have a number of fans amongst the Eurovision community. Interestingly enough, Azerbaijan was also placed 7th in the betting odds prior to the contest which is just the start of a more striking similarity than ever before.
Remarkably, 13 of the top 15 countries in the betting odds were also in the top 15 in the OGAE poll. The only disagreements were that OGAE placed Austria and Israel inside their top 15 while the odds favoured Ireland and Russia. Indeed, the top 7 countries in the OGAE poll were the exact same 7 found at the top of the betting odds, in a slightly shuffled order. For such an unpredictable contest it is strange to find such harmony between two different variables.

BAKU 2012

The OGAE poll continued to increase in popularity as 35 fan clubs voted for their favourite entries ahead of the 2012 contest. Here are the top 15!

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	375	🇸🇪 Sweden	Loreen – Euphoria	1st
2	212	🇮🇹 Italy	Nina Zilli – L’amore è femmina (Out Of Love)	9th
3	211	🇮🇸 Iceland	Greta Salóme and Jónsi – Never Forget	20th
4	199	🇷🇸 Serbia	Željko Joksimović – Nije Ljubav Stvar	3rd
5	164	🇳🇴 Norway	Tooji – Stay	26th
6	150	🇪🇸 Spain	Pastora Soler – Quédate Conmigo (Stay With Me)	10th
7	104	🇨🇾 Cyprus	Ivi Adamou – La La Love	16th
8	81	🇪🇪 Estonia	Ott Lepland – Kuula	6th
9	78	🇩🇪 Germany	Roman Lob – Standing Still	8th
10	62	🇫🇷 France	Anggun – Echo (You And I)	22nd
11	52	🇷🇴 Romania	Mandinga – Zaleilah	12th
12	43	🇳🇱 The Netherlands	Joan Franka – You And Me	SF (15th)
13	42	🇷🇺 Russia	Buranovskiye Babushki – Party For Everybody	2nd
14	41	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	Engelbert Humperdinck – Love Will Set You Free	25th
15	33	🇬🇷 Greece	Eleftheria Eleftheriou – Aphrodisiac	17th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 1st in the OGAE poll.
• 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
• 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

In a repeat of 2009, Sweden‘s Loreen was the dominant force in the Eurovision results, OGAE poll and betting odds alike. Serbia was also found in the top 5 of each variable. Nevertheless, as we saw with Verka Serduchka in 2007, OGAE voters tend to underscore high profile novelty acts in comparison to their ultimate Eurovision success. While 3rd in the betting odds and 2nd in the contest, Buranovskiye Babushki only just scraped into the OGAE top 15.
The OGAE poll once again showed a remarkable similarity to the betting odds, with 12 countries appearing in the top 15 of both sets of rankings. However, both of them completely overlooked Azerbaijan and Albania who sailed into the top 5. Nevertheless, OGAE members can pat themselves on the back for recognising the quality of Estonia‘s entry which betting agencies hadn’t seen coming at all.

MALMÖ 2013

39 fan clubs cast their votes for their favourite entries of 2013. In this instance, the top 15 finishers were as follows.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	374	🇩🇰 Denmark	Emmelie de Forest – Only Teardrops	1st
2	282	🇸🇲 San Marino	Valentina Monetta – Crisalide (Vola)	SF (11th)
3	269	🇳🇴 Norway	Margaret Berger – I Feed You My Love	4th
4	195	🇩🇪 Germany	Cascada – Glorious	21st
5	177	🇮🇹 Italy	Marco Mengoni – L’Essenziale	7th
6	147	🇳🇱 The Netherlands	Anouk – Birds	9th
7	119	🇺🇦 Ukraine	Zlata Ognevich – Gravity	3rd
8	119	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	Bonnie Tyler – Believe In Me	19th
9	103	🇸🇪 Sweden	Robin Stjernberg – You	14th
10	83	🇷🇺 Russia	Dina Garipova – What If	5th
11	61	🇦🇿 Azerbaijan	Farid Mammadov – Hold Me	2nd
12	41	🇮🇸 Iceland	Eythor Ingi – Ég Á Líf	17th
13	37	🇬🇪 Georgia	Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani – Waterfall	15th
14	32	🇮🇱 Israel	Moran Mazor – Rak Bishvilo	SF (14th)
15	30	🇨🇭 Switzerland	Takasa – You And Me	SF (13th)

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 1st in the OGAE poll.
• 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
• 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

It was a repeat of 2012 in 2013 with Denmark easily winning the OGAE poll, the betting odds and the Eurovision final. Once again the OGAE poll and betting odds proved similar with 12 of their top 15s consisting of the same countries. OGAE voters didn’t find the same appeal in Azerbaijan‘s entry as Eurovision voters did, perhaps proving the success of Hold Me was as much down to the fantastic staging as it was the song.
Notably, OGAE ranked Valentina Monetta’s second attempt for San Marino as the second best song in the contest. While Crisalide (Vola) became the country’s best result at the contest, it still failed to make the grand final. Germany and the United Kingdom were two entries that appealed to OGAE much more than Eurovision voters. Perhaps the well-known names of Cascada and Bonnie Tyler created extra attention for those songs. The betting odds similarly overrated them.

COPENHAGEN 2014

The OGAE poll continues to get bigger as 40 fan clubs decided who would win the 2014 edition of the vote. The top 15 were as follows.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	354	🇸🇪 Sweden	Sanna Nielsen – Undo	3rd
2	262	🇭🇺 Hungary	András Kállay-Saunders – Running	5th
3	233	🇮🇱 Israel	Mei Finegold – Same Heart	SF (14th)
4	221	🇦🇹 Austria	Conchita Wurst – Rise Like A Phoenix	1st
5	162	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	Molly – Children Of The Universe	17th
6	157	🇦🇲 Armenia	Aram MP3 – Not Alone	4th
7	132	🇳🇴 Norway	Carl Espen – Silent Storm	8th
8	111	🇪🇸 Spain	Ruth Lorenzo – Dancing In The Rain	10th
9	104	🇬🇷 Greece	Freaky Fortune feat. RiskyKidd – Rise Up	20th
10	79	🇲🇪 Montenegro	Sergej Ćetković – Moj Svijet	19th
11	76	🇮🇹 Italy	Emma Marrone – La Mia Città	21st
12	73	🇩🇰 Denmark	Basim – Cliché Love Song	9th
13	35	🇫🇷 France	TWIN TWIN – Moustache	26th
14	33	🇮🇪 Ireland	Can-Linn feat. Kasey Smith – Heartbeat	SF (12th)
15	31	🇳🇱 The Netherlands	The Common Linnets – Calm After The Storm	2nd

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 4th in the OGAE poll.
• 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
• 67% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

Oh 2014, the year no-one could’ve predicted. Or could they? Well not quite, but the OGAE poll placed both of the year’s big surprise packages in its top 15. In contrast, neither Austria‘s Conchita Wurst or The Common Linnets from The Netherlands were considered amongst the top 15 favourite to win at the betting agencies. Both entries were praised for lifting the bar of staging at Eurovision. However, OGAE members wouldn’t have known what was to appear on the Copenhagen stage so all credit to them for spotting the quality ahead of time!
However, the OGAE favourite to fall at the first hurdle in Copenhagen was Israel. Mei Finegold’s uptempo dance-pop entry with a key change satisfied all the traditional Eurovision tick boxes and its appeal to long-term fans of the contest was obvious. Nevertheless, the appeal wasn’t there for the casual Eurovision voters as it finished next to last in its semi-final.

VIENNA 2015

Ahead of the 2015 contest in Vienna, 41 fan clubs chose their favourite entries. The results were as follows.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	367	🇮🇹 Italy	Il Volo – Grande Amore	3rd
2	338	🇸🇪 Sweden	Måns Zelmerlöw – Heroes	1st
3	274	🇪🇪 Estonia	Elina Born & Stig Rästa – Goodbye To Yesterday	7th
4	243	🇳🇴 Norway	Mørland & Debrah Scarlett – A Monster Like Me	8th
5	228	🇸🇮 Slovenia	Maraaya – Here For You	14th
6	174	🇦🇺 Australia	Guy Sebastian – Tonight Again	5th
7	150	🇮🇱 Israel	Nadav Guedj – Golden Boy	9th
8	136	🇪🇸 Spain	Edurne – Amanecer	21st
9	97	🇦🇿 Azerbaijan	Elnur Huseynov – Hour Of The Wolf	12th
10	77	🇧🇪 Belgium	Loïc Nottet – Rhythm Inside	4th
11	74	🇷🇺 Russia	Polina Gagarina – A Million Voices	2nd
12	37	🇦🇱 Albania	Elhaida Dani – I’m Alive	17th
13	27	🇫🇷 France	Lisa Angell – N’oubliez Pas	25th
14	26	🇲🇪 Montenegro	Knez – Adio	13th
15	20	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	Electro Velvet – Still In Love With You	24th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 2nd in the OGAE poll.
• 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
• 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

The OGAE poll did a pretty good job of predicting the qualifiers in Vienna. All of the top 15 qualified, the first and only time they have done so. Perhaps the biggest surprise here was the absence of Latvia inside the OGAE top 15. Aminata wasn’t inside the top 15 of the odds either, although considering Latvia’s track record at the contest and the alternative vibe to the entry it was understandable. However, looking back Aminata is considered a fan favourite from the contest. Therefore it is remarkable that Latvia didn’t only fail to make the top 15 of the poll, but actually scored nil points!
Nevertheless, OGAE voters did match the tastes of Eurovision voters regarding Finland. While betting agencies ranked them inside the top 5 to win, perhaps due to the media attention Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät were receiving, the OGAE poll showed that the appeal to the public may not translate. While it is worth noting that Finland would’ve qualified in 10th place if televoting alone was in place, the Finnish band were never in contention for victory.

STOCKHOLM 2016

Ahead of the 2016 contest, 43 fan clubs submitted their top 10s in order to find out the winner of the 2016 OGAE poll. The top 15 finishers are listed below.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	425	🇫🇷 France	Amir – J’ai cherché	6th
2	392	🇷🇺 Russia	Sergey Lazarev – You Are The Only One	3rd
3	280	🇦🇺 Australia	Dami Im – Sound Of Silence	2nd
4	175	🇧🇬 Bulgaria	Poli Genova – If Love Was A Crime	4th
5	170	🇮🇹 Italy	Francesca Michielin – No Degree Of Separation	16th
6	155	🇪🇸 Spain	Barei – Say Yay!	22nd
7	128	🇦🇹 Austria	ZOË – Loin d’ici	13th
8	110	🇱🇻 Latvia	Justs – Heartbeat	15th
9	88	🇺🇦 Ukraine	Jamala – 1944	1st
10	80	🇭🇺 Hungary	Freddie – Pioneer	19th
11	79	🇸🇪 Sweden	Frans – If I Were Sorry	5th
12	63	🇭🇷 Croatia	Nina Kraljić – Lighthouse	23rd
13	59	🇨🇾 Cyprus	Minus One – Alter Ego	21st
14	44	🇮🇸 Iceland	Greta Salóme – Hear Them Calling	SF (14th)
15	42	🇷🇸 Serbia	Sanja Vučić ZAA – Goodbye (Shelter)	18th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 9th in the OGAE poll.
• 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
• 73% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

2016 was perhaps the most impressive display from OGAE voters in matching their taste with the ultimate Eurovision voter favourites. 3 of the top 5 at Eurovision were in the top 5 of the OGAE poll and France was one place away from making it a record-breaking four. Amongst the highest finishers in Stockholm, Armenia is an entry completely overlooked by OGAE voters. LoveWave is a very alternative entry that many fans agree didn’t reach its potential until the live performance at the contest. Therefore, Iveta Mukuchyan’s poor showing in the OGAE poll perhaps isn’t unexpected.
However, one entry that OGAE voters did see the appeal of was Austria. ZOË was never fancied by the betting agencies to finish highly. Nevertheless, the OGAE poll signified that Loin d’ici did have an appeal and that appeal translated to the casual Eurovision viewer, perhaps unexpectedly for some (including me, although it was a very pleasing surprise!).

KYIV 2017

Last year, a record-breaking 44 fan clubs voted for their favourite 2017 Eurovision entry. The top 15 finishers are listed below.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	497	🇮🇹 Italy	Francesco Gabbani – Occidentali’s Karma	6th
2	335	🇧🇪 Belgium	Blanche – City Lights	4th
3	308	🇸🇪 Sweden	Robin Bengtsson – I Can’t Go On	5th
4	277	🇫🇷 France	Alma – Requiem	12th
5	242	🇪🇪 Estonia	Koit Toome & Laura – Verona	SF (14th)
6	122	🇵🇹 Portugal	Salvador Sobral – Amar Pelos Dois	1st
7	120	🇧🇬 Bulgaria	Kristian Kostov – Beautiful Mess	2nd
8	107	🇲🇰 F.Y.R. Macedonia	Jana Burčeska – Dance Alone	SF (15th)
9	102	🇮🇱 Israel	IMRI – I Feel Alive	23rd
10	64	🇫🇮 Finland	Norma John – Blackbird	SF (12th)
11	43	🇩🇰 Denmark	Anja – Where I Am	20th
12	41	🇨🇭 Switzerland	Timebelle – Apollo	SF (12th)
13	40	🇭🇺 Hungary	Joci Pápai – Origo	8th
14	36	🇦🇺 Australia	Isaiah – Don’t Come Easy	9th
15	34	🇦🇿 Azerbaijan	Dihaj – Skeletons	14th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 6th in the OGAE poll.
• 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
• 73% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

2017 was very hit or miss for our OGAE voters with a record-breaking four of the OGAE top 15 failing to qualify for the final. The betting odds didn’t fall into the same trap, with only Estonia of the four sneaking in of the top 15 of the pre-rehearsal odds. Nevertheless, the OGAE voters and betting odds largely agreed once again with only Israel, as well as 3 of the 4 non-qualifers, being favoured by the OGAE voters.
Italy was strongly favoured by both with eventual winners Portugal in contention, but never really considered obvious challengers by both variables. One top 10 finisher that was inside the top 15 of the odds, but not inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll was Romania‘s Yodel It!. Once again, this is further evidence that hardcore Eurovision fans tend to undermark entries with a novelty aspect in comparison to Eurovision votes on the night.

Key findings

The mathematical stuff

As with the previous article about betting odds, it is nice just to reminisce and look back at past statistics… at least it is for me! Although once again I have attempted to make a couple of conclusions about what we’ve discovered. I’m not going to pretend to be a mathematical genius. Yet, I have plotted the percentages that were written under each contest’s leaderboard throughout this article into a little graph.
The orange line shows what percentage of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE voting that year. The grey line shows what percentage of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE voting that year. The dashed orange line shows an overall trend over the past 11 years regarding how accurate the top 5 in the OGAE poll have been in predicting the top 5 finishers in any order. Finally, the yellow line shows the percentage of countries that were found in both the top 5 (2007-10) or top 15 (2011-17) of the OGAE poll and the betting odds.

OGAE polls are becoming increasingly accurate

Due to only having OGAE top 15s from 2011 onwards, we had to compare the top 5s from the past eleven years to create a worthwhile trend. Of course, such a small sample is prone to random fluctuations. Nevertheless, you can see a significant trend on the graph. As the years have progressed, the OGAE top 5 has become increasingly similar to the eventual Eurovision top 5.
In the first five years we’ve analysed, only once did the OGAE poll have more than one country that finished in the Eurovision top 5 in its own top 5. In contrast, in the most recent six years, the OGAE poll had more than one country that finished in the Eurovision top 5 in its own top 5 on every single occasion. Therefore, in recent years the OGAE has become increasingly accurate at predicting the make-up of the Eurovision top 5.

Betting odds and OGAE polls: strikingly similar

Perhaps an even more noticeable trend from the graph is just how similar the countries that make up the OGAE top 15s and the betting odds top 15s are. Let’s take the statistics from 2011 onwards in which top 15s rather than top 5s were available. On every single occasion at least ten countries were found in both the top 15 of the OGAE poll and the betting odds. Furthermore, in the majority of cases (4 out of 7), at least twelve countries were found in both top 15s.
Is this a case of which came first, the chicken or the egg? Why are betting odds and the OGAE poll often so similar in regards to which countries rank the highest? Why are they more similar to each other than either of them are to the actual Eurovision results? Do the betting odds influence OGAE voters? Do OGAE voters influence betting odds? Perhaps it is a bit of both?

Who is copying who?

Betting odds don’t tend to change massively throughout the end of March and into April when the OGAE votes are taking place. Of course, OGAE members are hardcore Eurovision fans. They will have watched many national finals. They will have listened to entries many times. Also, they will have been paying close attention to which entries are the favourites. These are all things the casual Eurovision viewer and voter would not do.
Therefore, it is possibly understandable that OGAE voters are subconsciously influenced by betting odds. “So many people should like this song judging by its betting popularity so why don’t I? Let me listen to it a few more times”. Or on the other hand: “if this song has a chance of winning I need to let it grow on me so I’m not upset if it does win!”. Okay, that second statement may just be what I do when I’m watching endless national selections. Yet, you never know!

Other observations

There are also other themes that can be found throughout the analysis of each OGAE poll. Hardcore Eurovision fans tend to undermark novelty entries. Perhaps it’s a subconscious (or conscious!) protest against a song cheapening the contest’s reputation? In addition, there are occasions where a song that appeals to OGAE voters goes on to appeal to Eurovision voters. This is despite betting odds completely overlooking the entry. Key examples here include Ott Lepland from Estonia, Nadav Guedj from Israel, ZOË from Austria and, of course, Conchita Wurst!
In conclusion, the OGAE poll is often just as good an indicator as betting odds are. This is shown by the striking similarity between the two for the majority of years. However, the OGAE poll is more susceptible to overrating certain fan favourites even more than betting odds do. For example, Mei Finegold’s Same Heart, Valentina Monetta’s Crisalide (Vola), Kati Wolf’s What About My Dreams?, Charlotte Perrelli’s Hero or Jana Burčeska’s Dance Alone. Many people would agree that these were obviously overrated fan favourites. Nevertheless, lying underneath the fan favourite bias is another worthwhile, yet imperfect indicator of results.

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Stay tuned to ESCXTRA for the final outcome of the 2018 OGAE poll, scheduled to conclude later this month. If you have any theories regarding any of the points mentioned throughout this article then don’t hesitate to leave them in the comments section below or via our social media pages @ESCXTRA – I’m sure they will be just as valid if not more valid than my very own!