🇦🇿 Baku 2012
The OGAE poll continued to increase in popularity as 35 fan clubs voted for their favourite entries ahead of the 2012 contest. Here are the top 15!
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 375 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Loreen – Euphoria | 1st |
| 2 | 212 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Nina Zilli – L’amore è femmina (Out Of Love) | 9th |
| 3 | 211 | 🇮🇸 Iceland | Greta Salóme and Jónsi – Never Forget | 20th |
| 4 | 199 | 🇷🇸 Serbia | Željko Joksimović – Nije Ljubav Stvar | 3rd |
| 5 | 164 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Tooji – Stay | 26th |
| 6 | 150 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Pastora Soler – Quédate Conmigo (Stay With Me) | 10th |
| 7 | 104 | 🇨🇾 Cyprus | Ivi Adamou – La La Love | 16th |
| 8 | 81 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Ott Lepland – Kuula | 6th |
| 9 | 78 | 🇩🇪 Germany | Roman Lob – Standing Still | 8th |
| 10 | 62 | 🇫🇷 France | Anggun – Echo (You And I) | 22nd |
| 11 | 52 | 🇷🇴 Romania | Mandinga – Zaleilah | 12th |
| 12 | 43 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | Joan Franka – You And Me | SF (15th) |
| 13 | 42 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Buranovskiye Babushki – Party For Everybody | 2nd |
| 14 | 41 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Engelbert Humperdinck – Love Will Set You Free | 25th |
| 15 | 33 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Eleftheria Eleftheriou – Aphrodisiac | 17th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the OGAE poll.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
In a repeat of 2009, Sweden‘s Loreen was the dominant force in the Eurovision results, OGAE poll and betting odds alike. Serbia was also found in the top 5 of each variable. Nevertheless, as we saw with Verka Serduchka in 2007, OGAE voters tend to underscore high profile novelty acts in comparison to their ultimate Eurovision success. While 3rd in the betting odds and 2nd in the contest, Buranovskiye Babushki only just scraped into the OGAE top 15.
The OGAE poll once again showed a remarkable similarity to the betting odds, with 12 countries appearing in the top 15 of both sets of rankings. However, both of them completely overlooked Azerbaijan and Albania who sailed into the top 5. Nevertheless, OGAE members can pat themselves on the back for recognising the quality of Estonia‘s entry which betting agencies hadn’t seen coming at all.
🇸🇪 Malmö 2013
39 fan clubs cast their votes for their favourite entries of 2013. In this instance, the top 15 finishers were as follows.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 374 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Emmelie de Forest – Only Teardrops | 1st |
| 2 | 282 | 🇸🇲 San Marino | Valentina Monetta – Crisalide (Vola) | SF (11th) |
| 3 | 269 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Margaret Berger – I Feed You My Love | 4th |
| 4 | 195 | 🇩🇪 Germany | Cascada – Glorious | 21st |
| 5 | 177 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Marco Mengoni – L’Essenziale | 7th |
| 6 | 147 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | Anouk – Birds | 9th |
| 7 | 119 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Zlata Ognevich – Gravity | 3rd |
| 8 | 119 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Bonnie Tyler – Believe In Me | 19th |
| 9 | 103 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Robin Stjernberg – You | 14th |
| 10 | 83 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Dina Garipova – What If | 5th |
| 11 | 61 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | Farid Mammadov – Hold Me | 2nd |
| 12 | 41 | 🇮🇸 Iceland | Eythor Ingi – Ég Á Líf | 17th |
| 13 | 37 | 🇬🇪 Georgia | Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani – Waterfall | 15th |
| 14 | 32 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Moran Mazor – Rak Bishvilo | SF (14th) |
| 15 | 30 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Takasa – You And Me | SF (13th) |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the OGAE poll.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
It was a repeat of 2012 in 2013 with Denmark easily winning the OGAE poll, the betting odds and the Eurovision final. Once again the OGAE poll and betting odds proved similar with 12 of their top 15s consisting of the same countries. OGAE voters didn’t find the same appeal in Azerbaijan‘s entry as Eurovision voters did, perhaps proving the success of Hold Me was as much down to the fantastic staging as it was the song.
Notably, OGAE ranked Valentina Monetta’s second attempt for San Marino as the second best song in the contest. While Crisalide (Vola) became the country’s best result at the contest, it still failed to make the grand final. Germany and the United Kingdom were two entries that appealed to OGAE much more than Eurovision voters. Perhaps the well-known names of Cascada and Bonnie Tyler created extra attention for those songs. The betting odds similarly overrated them.
🇩🇰 Copenhagen 2014
The OGAE poll continues to get bigger as 40 fan clubs decided who would win the 2014 edition of the vote. The top 15 were as follows.
| Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 354 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Sanna Nielsen – Undo | 3rd |
| 2 | 262 | 🇭🇺 Hungary | András Kállay-Saunders – Running | 5th |
| 3 | 233 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Mei Finegold – Same Heart | SF (14th) |
| 4 | 221 | 🇦🇹 Austria | Conchita Wurst – Rise Like A Phoenix | 1st |
| 5 | 162 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Molly – Children Of The Universe | 17th |
| 6 | 157 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Aram MP3 – Not Alone | 4th |
| 7 | 132 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Carl Espen – Silent Storm | 8th |
| 8 | 111 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Ruth Lorenzo – Dancing In The Rain | 10th |
| 9 | 104 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Freaky Fortune feat. RiskyKidd – Rise Up | 20th |
| 10 | 79 | 🇲🇪 Montenegro | Sergej Ćetković – Moj Svijet | 19th |
| 11 | 76 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Emma Marrone – La Mia Città | 21st |
| 12 | 73 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Basim – Cliché Love Song | 9th |
| 13 | 35 | 🇫🇷 France | TWIN TWIN – Moustache | 26th |
| 14 | 33 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | Can-Linn feat. Kasey Smith – Heartbeat | SF (12th) |
| 15 | 31 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | The Common Linnets – Calm After The Storm | 2nd |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 4th in the OGAE poll.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 67% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
Oh 2014, the year no-one could’ve predicted. Or could they? Well not quite, but the OGAE poll placed both of the year’s big surprise packages in its top 15. In contrast, neither Austria‘s Conchita Wurst or The Common Linnets from The Netherlands were considered amongst the top 15 favourite to win at the betting agencies. Both entries were praised for lifting the bar of staging at Eurovision. However, OGAE members wouldn’t have known what was to appear on the Copenhagen stage so all credit to them for spotting the quality ahead of time!
However, the OGAE favourite to fall at the first hurdle in Copenhagen was Israel. Mei Finegold’s uptempo dance-pop entry with a key change satisfied all the traditional Eurovision tick boxes and its appeal to long-term fans of the contest was obvious. Nevertheless, the appeal wasn’t there for the casual Eurovision voters as it finished next to last in its semi-final.
Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…
