Eurovision in Concert took place last week and tomorrow it’s time for the London Eurovision Party. The biggest two preparties for the Eurovision Song Contest usually shake up the odds quite a bit, so it’s time for the second part of our series XTRA Odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Switzerland are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 5/1. That means that for ever €1 you bet, you win an extra €5 if Luca Hänni does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld. We will use fractional statistics for the posts.
Analysis: 13 April
Since our first article on 20 March, The Netherlands have stabilised their first place with the bookmakers. Their odds have continued to shorten, with the countries following Duncan Laurence jumping back and forth. With over fifteen bookmakers being used by EurovisionWorld, it is a most reliable source for these rankings.
- 🇸🇪 It is fair to say that Sweden are on a rollercoaster ride. From a stable third place after Melodifestivalen, John Lundvik slowly dropped down to seventh. However, the past few week has seen him win some ground again. “Too Late For Love” is now ranked fifth. Progress on the Swedish entry will be interesting to follow.
- Position #2 is highly contested. Russia‘s Sergey Lazarev is still holding on to it, but he’s got the chasers on his tail. Luca Hänni from Switzerland already passed him for a short while earlier this week. Italy have, after a period of drifting, now found their way back up and Mahmood may just aim for that second place. We can’t rule Sweden out yet either. None of them seem to affect The Netherlands at the moment.
- 🇦🇱🇨🇿 The Amsterdam preview party of Eurovision in Concert seems to be helping both Albania and the Czech Republic. There’s no surprise there for Jonida Maliqi, who also saw herself rise in the My Eurovision Scoreboard app. Many were surprised to see “Ktheju Tokës” ranked 36th in our first XTRA Odds article. It has now climbed to 27th. Lake Malawi have managed to climb into the bookies’ top twenty, with an 18th place at the moment.
- 🇮🇱 This year’s host country Israel is on its way down with the bookmakers. It was ranked in the top twenty, but it is the biggest loser at the moment, going down by nine places, into 25th.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|Country||Position change||Entry||Shortest odds||Longest odds|
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||3/2||9/5|
|2. Russia||0||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||5/1||7/1|
|3. Switzerland||1||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||19/4||8/1|
|4. Italy||1||Mahmood – Soldi||13/2||9/1|
|5. Sweden||-2||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||7/1||10/1|
|6. Iceland||1||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||12/1||20/1|
|7. Cyprus||-1||Tamta – Replay||20/1||13/1|
|8. Malta||1||Michela – Chameleon||28/1||17/1|
|9. Greece||1||Katerine Duska – Better Love||28/1||16/1|
|10. Norway||-2||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||25/1||50/1|
|11. Portugal||0||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||25/1||50/1|
|12. France||1||Bilal Hassani – Roi||33/1||60/1|
|13. Slovenia||1||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||33/1||90/1|
|14. Azerbaijan||1||Chingiz – Truth||49/1||80/1|
|15. Armenia||-3||Srbuk – Walking Out||33/1||90/1|
|16. Australia||1||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||50/1||80/1|
|17. Denmark||-1||Leonora – Love Is Forever||33/1||125/1|
|18. Czech Republic||4||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||50/1||125/1|
|19. Belgium||-1||Eliot – Wake Up||50/1||125/1|
|20. North Macedonia||0||Tamara Todevska – Proud||50/1||125/1|
|21. Spain||0||Miki – La Venda||50/1||150/1|
|22. Germany||3||S!sters – Sister||50/1||150/1|
|23. United Kingdom||0||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||50/1||200/1|
|24. Estonia||0||Victor Crone – Storm||50/1||200/1|
|25. Israel||-6||Kobi Marimi – Home||50/1||200/1|
|26. Finland||1||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||69/1||250/1|
|27. Albania||9||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||89/1||200/1|
|28. Ireland||-2||Sarah McTernan – 22||50/1||275/1|
|29. Poland||2||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||100/1||300/1|
|30. Hungary||0||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||80/1||250/1|
|31. Romania||-2||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||99/1||250/1|
|32. Serbia||5||Nevena Božović – Kruna||109/1||250/1|
|33. Lithuania||0||Jurijus – Run With The Lions||50/1||300/1|
|34. Austria||-6||Paenda – Limits||50/1||250/1|
|35. Croatia||0||Roko – The Dream||100/1||250/1|
|36. Belarus||-4||ZENA – Like It||100/1||250/1|
|37. San Marino||2||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||100/1||300/1|
|38. Moldova||-4||Anna Odobescu – Stay||100/1||300/1|
|39. Latvia||1||Carousel – That Night||100/1||400/1|
|40. Georgia||-2||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||100/1||500/1|
|41. Montenegro||0||D Mol – Heaven||200/1||400/1|
We will be back with an update of the bookmakers’ odds next week after the London Eurovision Party. Many wonderful acts will take to the stage tomorrow night at Café de Paris in Central London. Will the intimate setting there impact some of the acts taking part?