Tomorrow is the day. The first rehearsals will kick off at the Tel Aviv Expo, where the Eurovision Song Contest will be held in two weeks time. It’s time for us to once again look at the current odds with the bookmakers. Who’s doing well? And who’s slowly losing momentum?
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Switzerland are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 5/1. That means that for ever €1 you bet, you win an extra €5 if Luca Hänni does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld. We will use fractional statistics for the posts.
Analysis: 3 May
Since our last article on 13 April, we’ve seen a bit of movement inside the top ten. However, it now looks as if every country inside the top ten is back exactly where they were three weeks ago. With over fifteen bookmakers being used by EurovisionWorld, it is a most reliable source for these rankings.
- 🇦🇱🇲🇰 Albania are doing really well at the moment. After climbing a massive nine spots last time around, Jonida Maliqi wins another four places this time. “Ktheju Tokës” now is the 23rd most likely song to win the contest. A similar movement is visible for North Macedonia. Tamara Todevska has brought her “Proud” to #17, a climb of three spots.
- 🇪🇸 Spain are the biggest climbers this time around. Miki and his “La Venda” are clearly gaining momentum now. He has stormed into the top fifteen, coming from #21. If rehearsals go well for the Spanish, this could be one to keep an eye on in the next couple of weeks.
- 🇳🇱 The market seems slightly ‘satisfied’ when it comes to The Netherlands. Duncan Laurence’s odds are stable at most times, whilst at others he’s slightly drifting. This is probably down to the fact that odds have shortened to the point where it is no longer interesting to bet on “Arcade” winning, as not enough money can be made. This automatically leads to more money flowing towards Russia.
- 🇦🇲🇩🇪🇩🇰 Armenia aren’t doing well at the moment. Srbuk’s live performance in Madrid, where she suffered from technical issues, may have played a part in this. In similar fashion, the other ‘drifters’ this time are Denmark and Germany, who both lose four spots each.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|Country||Position change||Entry||Shortest odds||Longest odds|
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||3/2||7/4|
|2. Russia||0||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||7/2||4/1|
|3. Switzerland||0||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||6/1||12/1|
|4. Italy||0||Mahmood – Soldi||7/1||12/1|
|5. Sweden||0||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||8/1||13/1|
|6. Iceland||0||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||11/1||16/1|
|7. Cyprus||0||Tamta – Replay||13/1||18/1|
|8. Malta||0||Michela – Chameleon||17/1||30/1|
|9. Greece||0||Katerine Duska – Better Love||17/1||31/1|
|10. Norway||0||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||24/1||50/1|
|11. France||+1||Bilal Hassani – Roi||25/1||66/1|
|12. Portugal||-1||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||25/1||80/1|
|13. Azerbaijan||+1||Chingiz – Truth||40/1||66/1|
|14. Spain||+7||Miki – La Venda||49/1||89/1|
|15. Slovenia||-2||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||33/1||100/1|
|16. Australia||0||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||50/1||80/1|
|17. North Macedonia||+3||Tamara Todevska – Proud||49/1||80/1|
|18. Armenia||-3||Srbuk – Walking Out||33/1||100/1|
|19. Czech Republic||-1||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||50/1||125/1|
|20. Belgium||-1||Eliot – Wake Up||50/1||200/1|
|21. Denmark||-4||Leonora – Love Is Forever||33/1||200/1|
|22. United Kingdom||+1||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||50/1||200/1|
|23. Albania||+4||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||89/1||150/1|
|24. Estonia||0||Victor Crone – Storm||50/1||200/1|
|25. Israel||0||Kobi Marimi – Home||50/1||200/1|
|26. Germany||-4||S!sters – Sister||49/1||250/1|
|27. Finland||-1||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||99/1||250/1|
|28. Ireland||0||Sarah McTernan – 22||49/1||400/1|
|29. Serbia||+3||Nevena Božović – Kruna||99/1||250/1|
|30. Hungary||0||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||80/1||249/1|
|31. Poland||-2||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||100/1||250/1|
|32. Croatia||+3||Roko – The Dream||100/1||250/1|
|33. Romania||-2||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||99/1||300/1|
|34. Austria||0||Paenda – Limits||50/1||300/1|
|35. Lithuania||-2||Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions||50/1||350/1|
|36. Belarus||0||ZENA – Like It||100/1||300/1|
|37. Moldova||+1||Anna Odobescu – Stay||100/1||400/1|
|38. San Marino||-1||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||100/1||500/1|
|39. Latvia||0||Carousel – That Night||99/1||500/1|
|40. Georgia||0||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||100/1||750/1|
|41. Montenegro||0||D Mol – Heaven||200/1||750/1|
We will be back with an update of the bookmakers’ odds soon after the first rehearsals take place. Make sure you don’t miss the action tomorrow, as one of the favourites for victory, Cyprus, will be the first act to take to the stage. ESCXTRA.com will stream live from the press centre in Tel Aviv.