Betting Odds

XTRA Odds: Minor changes after the first day of Eurovision rehearsals

When rehearsals kick off at the Eurovision Song Contest location, we’re all waiting to see who’s hot and who’s… not. We saw the first nine rehearsals today and it seems we haven’t yet found the big mover…

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Switzerland are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 5/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €5 if Luca Hänni does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld

Analysis: 4 May

Our last article about the odds was only yesterday. Our main focus for today is the nine countries that have done their first rehearsals in Tel Aviv today. Who gained, who lost?

  • 🇷🇸🇧🇾🇵🇱 Serbia (#26), Belarus (#33) and Poland (#28) look like today’s winners. All three countries climb three spots each on the total ranking. It however needs to be said that neither of them were anywhere near the top positions. The shortening of their odds isn’t likely to bring them the ‘Fuego effect’ of climbing enormously after a rehearsal either.
  • 🇫🇮 Finland (#31) are not looking good at all. They’ve dropped out of the top thirty and become today’s biggest losers. The staging ideas for Darude and Sebastian Rejman seemingly haven’t gone down well.
  • 🇨🇾 Cyprus are the most remarkable one in the pack. Tamta is still at #7, where she has been for a while. Her odds however haven’t changed much at all since her rehearsal, despite being rather out there with her performance and outfit.
  • 🇸🇮🇨🇿 Slovenia (#14) and Czech Republic (#17) book small victories. They each climb one spot on the total ranking. It will be interesting to keep an eye on them, as these odds may indicate that they are outsiders.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

CountryPosition changeEntry20 March13 April3 May
1. The Netherlands0Duncan Laurence – Arcade111
2. Russia0Sergey Lazarev – Scream222
3. Switzerland0Luca Hänni – She Got Me433
4. Italy0Mahmood – Soldi544
5. Sweden0John Lundvik – Too Late For Love355
6. Iceland0Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra766
7. Cyprus0Tamta – Replay677
8. Malta0Michela – Chameleon988
9. Greece0Katerine Duska – Better Love1099
10. Norway0KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky81010
11. France0Bilal Hassani – Roi131211
12. Azerbaijan+1Chingiz – Truth151413
13. Portugal-1Conan Osíris – Telemóveis111112
14. Slovenia+1Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi141315
15. Spain-1Miki – La Venda212114
16. Australia0Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity171616
17. North Macedonia0Tamara Todevska – Proud202017
18. Czech Republic+1Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend221819
19. Armenia-1Srbuk – Walking Out121518
20. Belgium0Eliot – Wake Up181920
21. Denmark0Leonora – Love Is Forever161721
22. United Kingdom0Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us232322
23. Albania0Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës362723
24. Estonia0Victor Crone – Storm242424
25. Israel0Kobi Marimi – Home192525
26. Serbia+3Nevena Božović – Kruna373229
27. Germany-1S!sters – Sister252226
28. Poland+3Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)312931
29. Hungary+1Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám303030
30. Ireland-2Sarah McTernan – 22262828
31. Finland-4Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away272627
32. Croatia0Roko – The Dream353532
33. Belarus+3ZENA – Like It323636
34. Romania-1Ester Peony – On A Sunday293133
35. Lithuania0Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions333335
36. Austria-2Paenda – Limits283434
37. Moldova0Anna Odobescu – Stay343837
38. San Marino0Serhat – Say Na Na Na393738
39. Latvia0Carousel – That Night403939
40. Georgia0Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going384040
41. Montenegro0D Mol – Heaven414141
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Nick van Lith

I'm one of the founding members of ESCXTRA.com. Seven years after the start, I'm proud that I am now the Deputy Editor-in-Chief of this wonderful website. When I'm not doing Eurovision stuff, you should be able to find me teaching German to kids...
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