When rehearsals kick off at the Eurovision Song Contest location, we’re all waiting to see who’s hot and who’s… not. We saw the first nine rehearsals today and it seems we haven’t yet found the big mover…
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Switzerland are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 5/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €5 if Luca Hänni does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Analysis: 4 May
Our last article about the odds was only yesterday. Our main focus for today is the nine countries that have done their first rehearsals in Tel Aviv today. Who gained, who lost?
Serbia (#26), Belarus (#33) and Poland (#28) look like today’s winners. All three countries climb three spots each on the total ranking. It however needs to be said that neither of them were anywhere near the top positions. The shortening of their odds isn’t likely to bring them the ‘Fuego effect’ of climbing enormously after a rehearsal either. Finland (#31) are not looking good at all. They’ve dropped out of the top thirty and become today’s biggest losers. The staging ideas for Darude and Sebastian Rejman seemingly haven’t gone down well. Cyprus are the most remarkable one in the pack. Tamta is still at #7, where she has been for a while. Her odds however haven’t changed much at all since her rehearsal, despite being rather out there with her performance and outfit. Slovenia (#14) and Czech Republic (#17) book small victories. They each climb one spot on the total ranking. It will be interesting to keep an eye on them, as these odds may indicate that they are outsiders.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
|Country||Position change||Entry||20 March||13 April||3 May|
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1||1||1|
|2. Russia||0||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||2||2||2|
|3. Switzerland||0||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4||3||3|
|4. Italy||0||Mahmood – Soldi||5||4||4|
|5. Sweden||0||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||3||5||5|
|6. Iceland||0||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||7||6||6|
|7. Cyprus||0||Tamta – Replay||6||7||7|
|8. Malta||0||Michela – Chameleon||9||8||8|
|9. Greece||0||Katerine Duska – Better Love||10||9||9|
|10. Norway||0||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||8||10||10|
|11. France||0||Bilal Hassani – Roi||13||12||11|
|12. Azerbaijan||+1||Chingiz – Truth||15||14||13|
|13. Portugal||-1||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||11||11||12|
|14. Slovenia||+1||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||14||13||15|
|15. Spain||-1||Miki – La Venda||21||21||14|
|16. Australia||0||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||17||16||16|
|17. North Macedonia||0||Tamara Todevska – Proud||20||20||17|
|18. Czech Republic||+1||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||22||18||19|
|19. Armenia||-1||Srbuk – Walking Out||12||15||18|
|20. Belgium||0||Eliot – Wake Up||18||19||20|
|21. Denmark||0||Leonora – Love Is Forever||16||17||21|
|22. United Kingdom||0||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||23||23||22|
|23. Albania||0||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||36||27||23|
|24. Estonia||0||Victor Crone – Storm||24||24||24|
|25. Israel||0||Kobi Marimi – Home||19||25||25|
|26. Serbia||+3||Nevena Božović – Kruna||37||32||29|
|27. Germany||-1||S!sters – Sister||25||22||26|
|28. Poland||+3||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||31||29||31|
|29. Hungary||+1||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||30||30||30|
|30. Ireland||-2||Sarah McTernan – 22||26||28||28|
|31. Finland||-4||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||27||26||27|
|32. Croatia||0||Roko – The Dream||35||35||32|
|33. Belarus||+3||ZENA – Like It||32||36||36|
|34. Romania||-1||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||29||31||33|
|35. Lithuania||0||Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions||33||33||35|
|36. Austria||-2||Paenda – Limits||28||34||34|
|37. Moldova||0||Anna Odobescu – Stay||34||38||37|
|38. San Marino||0||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||39||37||38|
|39. Latvia||0||Carousel – That Night||40||39||39|
|40. Georgia||0||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||38||40||40|
|41. Montenegro||0||D Mol – Heaven||41||41||41|