XTRA Odds: Australia surges after first rehearsal at Eurovision

The second day of rehearsals at the Eurovision Song Contest is done. Eight more countries performed on the EXPO Tel Aviv stage for the very first time. After today, it seems Australia is today’s big winner.

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Switzerland are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 5/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €5 if Luca Hänni does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld. 

Analysis: 5 May

Our last article about the odds was yesterday after the first rehearsals. Our main focus for today is the eight countries that have done their first rehearsals in Tel Aviv today, as well as on yesterday’s changes. Who gained, who lost?

• 🇦🇺 Kate Miller-Heidke from Australia is today’s winner. Not only did she win our Press Poll today, she is also climbing with the bookmakers. She is rapidly approaching the top ten, coming from #16 yesterday. It seems to be a matter of time before the odds for “Zero Gravity” drop to the levels of Greece and Cyprus. What’s the limit for Australia?
• 🇬🇷🇮🇸 Today’s top ten countries, Iceland and Greece, hardly see any reaction with the bookmakers at the moment. There is some shortening for Greece, but not enough to change their position just yet. Iceland sees a little drifting, but nothing to worry about for the fans of Hatari.
• 🇸🇮 Yesterday, Slovenia gained a position after their first rehearsal. Today, they dropped down two positions, falling behind Australia and Spain. Together with Serbia and Poland, they’re one of three countries to see yesterday’s effect being nullified. With two positions lost for “Sebi”, they are today’s biggest losers.
• 🇫🇮 In general, the lack of movement for most entries is remarkable. Many countries win a position here or there, but Australia (+5) and Finland (-4) are the only one with considerable changes. It will be interesting to see how things change once any of the top five contenders hit the stage tomorrow.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.