XTRA Odds: Favourites remain stable after third day of rehearsals

The third day of rehearsals at the Eurovision Song Contest has concluded. Acts taking part in the first half of the second semifinal rehearsed for the first time in Tel Aviv today. The list today included hot favourites for victory Luca Hänni and John Lundvik. What happened to their odds after they performed?

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Switzerland are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 5/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €5 if Luca Hänni does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld. 

Analysis: 6 May

It’s the third day of rehearsals. By now, we’d normally have seen a lot of movement with the bookmakers. What changed after yesterday?

• 🇨🇭🇸🇪 Today’s favourites are stable. Both Switzerland and Sweden maintain their positions. Both performances have seemingly gone down quite well, with the odds for both Luca Hänni and John Lundvik shortening slightly. Neither is close to overtaking #2 Russia yet, though. With Russia and The Netherlands yet to rehearse, you might expect some movement tomorrow when both will take the stage for the first time in Tel Aviv.
• 🇮🇪 The biggest gainer in today’s bookmaker update is Ireland. Sarah McTernan’s 50s vibe has seen her climb two spots, from #30 to #28. It’s still a battle back in the pack, but nevertheless, it’s good to see some reaction for the Irish entry. Only six spots left before she hits that magical #22…
• 🇧🇪 On the losing side of things, we don’t see one of today’s acts. In fact, it’s Belgium. Eliot loses three spots and drops to #23. Yesterday, we saw no immediate reaction to his rehearsal, but that has followed today, indicating that bookmaker responses may not be as immediate as in previous years. It also explains why Leonora from Denmark climbs a spot: She benefits from Eliot’s drifting. The other act going down more than one spot is Joci Pápai from Hungary, who switches spots with Ireland and is now #30.
• 🇵🇹🇦🇲 In terms of those who are looking to see a different (read: lower) spot by the end of tomorrow, we have to mention Armenia and Portugal. Both countries had a first rehearsal which was criticised by several media. It has led to them drifting across the board, however only Portugal lose a spot so far. Armenia is now drifting to odds of 100/1 in some places after Srbuk’s first rehearsal today.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.