XTRA Odds: Azerbaijan’s Chingiz skyrockets into the top five

On a day like this, you know the bookmakers are going to react! The Eurovision odds have now really started to move. Our top two favourites, the Netherlands and Russia, had their first rehearsals. However, Azerbaijan are the story of the day.

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Italyare noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Mahmood does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld. 

Analysis: 7 May

With so many favourites hitting the stage for the first time, we’ll surely need to look at what changed after yesterday.

• 🇦🇿Azerbaijan are the story of the day. Chingiz was right outside the top ten (#13) when the proceedings kicked off in Tel Aviv today. Being the last semifinalist to rehearse and without ‘Foureira moment’ so far, it seems last was not least. Odds were at 66/1 earlier today and have now gone to as low as 8/1. “Truth” is now in fourth place with the bookmakers, right behind Mahmood from Italy. Can he storm through to fight Duncan Laurence and Sergey Lazarev?
• 🇳🇱 Now we’re at it, we should also discuss these two top favourites. Reaction to The Netherlands has been decent, but not overwhelming. Due to money flowing elsewhere (Azerbaijan and Malta, for example), Duncan Laurence now sees his “Arcade” drifting slightly, from 7/4 to 12/5.
• 🇷🇺 A similar, but slightly stronger effect is visible with Russia. Coming from odds as low as 7/2, Sergey Lazarev now sees odds of 6/1 in some places. This might not necessarily have to do with a ‘bad staging’, but moreso with a clearer flow of money towards other contestants, like with The Netherlands.
• 🇲🇰North Macedonia can definitely also look back on a good day in Israel. Tamara Todevska has already seen herself shorten a little over the past few weeks, coming from #20 up to #17 after the first day of rehearsals. Yesterday, she was at #18. However, the mirrors on stage have worked for her. North Macedonia are now #14 and are today’s second big winners, behind Azerbaijan.
• 🇨🇭🇵🇹 Sadly, we also see some entries clearly losing ground. Starting off with those who rehearsed before today, we see Switzerland have left the top three – and even the top five. Luca Hänni has dropped from third into sixth place. The same thing happened for Portugal, who have dropped from #11 to #18 in the past few days.
• 🇳🇴🇭🇷 Today’s losing countries are Norway and Croatia. Roko was already in the back of the pack, at #32, but now loses yet another two spots and finds himself in 34th place. KEiiNO from Norway have left the top ten and are now at #13.
• 🇭🇺🇮🇪 Hungary and Ireland swapped places yesterday, with Joci Pápai dropping to #30 and Sarah McTernan claiming #28. Interestingly, they have swapped back again today. Poland is still separating the two.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

Country	Position change	Entry	20 March	13 April	3 May	4 May	5 May	6 May
1. The Netherlands	0	Duncan Laurence – Arcade	1	1	1	1	1	1
2. Russia	0	Sergey Lazarev – Scream	2	2	2	2	2	2
3. Italy	+1	Mahmood – Soldi	5	4	4	4	4	4
4. Azerbaijan	+9	Chingiz – Truth	15	14	13	12	13	13
5. Sweden	0	John Lundvik – Too Late For Love	3	5	5	5	5	5
6. Switzerland	-3	Luca Hänni – She Got Me	4	3	3	3	3	3
7. Malta	+1	Michela – Chameleon	9	8	8	8	8	8
8. Iceland	-2	Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra	7	6	6	6	6	6
9. Cyprus	-2	Tamta – Replay	6	7	7	7	7	7
10. Greece	-1	Katerine Duska – Better Love	10	9	9	9	9	9
11. Australia	0	Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity	17	16	16	16	11	11
12. France	0	Bilal Hassani – Roi	13	12	11	11	12	12
13. Norway	-3	KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky	8	10	10	10	10	10
14. North Macedonia	+4	Tamara Todevska – Proud	20	20	17	17	18	18
15. Spain	-1	Miki – La Venda	21	21	14	15	15	14
16. Czech Republic	+1	Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend	22	18	19	18	17	17
17. Slovenia	-1	Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi	14	13	15	14	16	16
18. Portugal	-3	Conan Osíris – Telemóveis	11	11	12	13	14	15
19. Denmark	+1	Leonora – Love Is Forever	16	17	21	21	21	20
20. Armenia	-1	Srbuk – Walking Out	12	15	18	19	19	19
21. Albania	0	Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës	36	27	23	23	22	21
22. United Kingdom	0	Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us	23	23	22	22	23	22
23. Belgium	0	Eliot – Wake Up	18	19	20	20	20	23
24. Estonia	0	Victor Crone – Storm	24	24	24	24	24	24
25. Israel	0	Kobi Marimi – Home	19	25	25	25	25	25
26. Serbia	0	Nevena Božović – Kruna	37	32	29	26	27	26
27. Germany	0	S!sters – Sister	25	22	26	27	26	27
28. Hungary	+2	Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám	30	30	30	29	28	30
29. Poland	0	Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)	31	29	31	28	29	29
30. Ireland	-2	Sarah McTernan – 22	26	28	28	30	30	28
31. Finland	0	Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away	27	26	27	31	31	31
32. Romania	+1	Ester Peony – On A Sunday	29	31	33	34	33	33
33. Austria	+1	Paenda – Limits	28	34	34	36	35	34
34. Croatia	-2	Roko – The Dream	35	35	32	32	32	32
35. Belarus	0	ZENA – Like It	32	36	36	33	34	35
36. Moldova	0	Anna Odobescu – Stay	34	38	37	37	37	36
37. Lithuania	0	Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions	33	33	35	35	36	37
38. Latvia	0	Carousel – That Night	40	39	39	39	39	38
39. San Marino	0	Serhat – Say Na Na Na	39	37	38	38	38	39
40. Georgia	0	Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going	38	40	40	40	40	40
41. Montenegro	0	D Mol – Heaven	41	41	41	41	41	41