On a day like this, you know the bookmakers are going to react! The Eurovision odds have now really started to move. Our top two favourites, the Netherlands and Russia, had their first rehearsals. However, Azerbaijan are the story of the day.
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Italyare noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Mahmood does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Analysis: 7 May
With so many favourites hitting the stage for the first time, we’ll surely need to look at what changed after yesterday.
- 🇦🇿Azerbaijan are the story of the day. Chingiz was right outside the top ten (#13) when the proceedings kicked off in Tel Aviv today. Being the last semifinalist to rehearse and without ‘Foureira moment’ so far, it seems last was not least. Odds were at 66/1 earlier today and have now gone to as low as 8/1. “Truth” is now in fourth place with the bookmakers, right behind Mahmood from Italy. Can he storm through to fight Duncan Laurence and Sergey Lazarev?
- 🇳🇱 Now we’re at it, we should also discuss these two top favourites. Reaction to The Netherlands has been decent, but not overwhelming. Due to money flowing elsewhere (Azerbaijan and Malta, for example), Duncan Laurence now sees his “Arcade” drifting slightly, from 7/4 to 12/5.
- 🇷🇺 A similar, but slightly stronger effect is visible with Russia. Coming from odds as low as 7/2, Sergey Lazarev now sees odds of 6/1 in some places. This might not necessarily have to do with a ‘bad staging’, but moreso with a clearer flow of money towards other contestants, like with The Netherlands.
- 🇲🇰North Macedonia can definitely also look back on a good day in Israel. Tamara Todevska has already seen herself shorten a little over the past few weeks, coming from #20 up to #17 after the first day of rehearsals. Yesterday, she was at #18. However, the mirrors on stage have worked for her. North Macedonia are now #14 and are today’s second big winners, behind Azerbaijan.
- 🇨🇭🇵🇹 Sadly, we also see some entries clearly losing ground. Starting off with those who rehearsed before today, we see Switzerland have left the top three – and even the top five. Luca Hänni has dropped from third into sixth place. The same thing happened for Portugal, who have dropped from #11 to #18 in the past few days.
- 🇳🇴🇭🇷 Today’s losing countries are Norway and Croatia. Roko was already in the back of the pack, at #32, but now loses yet another two spots and finds himself in 34th place. KEiiNO from Norway have left the top ten and are now at #13.
- 🇭🇺🇮🇪 Hungary and Ireland swapped places yesterday, with Joci Pápai dropping to #30 and Sarah McTernan claiming #28. Interestingly, they have swapped back again today. Poland is still separating the two.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|Country||Position change||Entry||20 March||13 April||3 May||4 May||5 May||6 May|
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. Russia||0||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||2||2||2||2||2||2|
|3. Italy||+1||Mahmood – Soldi||5||4||4||4||4||4|
|4. Azerbaijan||+9||Chingiz – Truth||15||14||13||12||13||13|
|5. Sweden||0||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||3||5||5||5||5||5|
|6. Switzerland||-3||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4||3||3||3||3||3|
|7. Malta||+1||Michela – Chameleon||9||8||8||8||8||8|
|8. Iceland||-2||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||7||6||6||6||6||6|
|9. Cyprus||-2||Tamta – Replay||6||7||7||7||7||7|
|10. Greece||-1||Katerine Duska – Better Love||10||9||9||9||9||9|
|11. Australia||0||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||17||16||16||16||11||11|
|12. France||0||Bilal Hassani – Roi||13||12||11||11||12||12|
|13. Norway||-3||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||8||10||10||10||10||10|
|14. North Macedonia||+4||Tamara Todevska – Proud||20||20||17||17||18||18|
|15. Spain||-1||Miki – La Venda||21||21||14||15||15||14|
|16. Czech Republic||+1||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||22||18||19||18||17||17|
|17. Slovenia||-1||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||14||13||15||14||16||16|
|18. Portugal||-3||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||11||11||12||13||14||15|
|19. Denmark||+1||Leonora – Love Is Forever||16||17||21||21||21||20|
|20. Armenia||-1||Srbuk – Walking Out||12||15||18||19||19||19|
|21. Albania||0||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||36||27||23||23||22||21|
|22. United Kingdom||0||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||23||23||22||22||23||22|
|23. Belgium||0||Eliot – Wake Up||18||19||20||20||20||23|
|24. Estonia||0||Victor Crone – Storm||24||24||24||24||24||24|
|25. Israel||0||Kobi Marimi – Home||19||25||25||25||25||25|
|26. Serbia||0||Nevena Božović – Kruna||37||32||29||26||27||26|
|27. Germany||0||S!sters – Sister||25||22||26||27||26||27|
|28. Hungary||+2||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||30||30||30||29||28||30|
|29. Poland||0||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||31||29||31||28||29||29|
|30. Ireland||-2||Sarah McTernan – 22||26||28||28||30||30||28|
|31. Finland||0||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||27||26||27||31||31||31|
|32. Romania||+1||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||29||31||33||34||33||33|
|33. Austria||+1||Paenda – Limits||28||34||34||36||35||34|
|34. Croatia||-2||Roko – The Dream||35||35||32||32||32||32|
|35. Belarus||0||ZENA – Like It||32||36||36||33||34||35|
|36. Moldova||0||Anna Odobescu – Stay||34||38||37||37||37||36|
|37. Lithuania||0||Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions||33||33||35||35||36||37|
|38. Latvia||0||Carousel – That Night||40||39||39||39||39||38|
|39. San Marino||0||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||39||37||38||38||38||39|
|40. Georgia||0||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||38||40||40||40||40||40|
|41. Montenegro||0||D Mol – Heaven||41||41||41||41||41||41|