Betting Odds

XTRA Odds: Australia enter top ten as Malta continue to shorten

After the fifth day of rehearsals, it seems bookmakers (and therefore betting people) are holding out to see what happens in the next couple of days before making major adjustments in the Eurovision odds. After the rise of Azerbaijan, we now only see one new country flying into the top ten: Australia!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Italyare noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Mahmood does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld

Analysis: 9 May

We’ve had a day of rest yesterday, which meant no rehearsals took place in Tel Aviv. Hardly anything then changed with the bookmakers. After fifteen semifinal one acts rehearsed for the second time today, we now see some movement. Here’s our analysis of today’s changes:

  • 🇦🇺 It was to be expected after a first rehearsal which went down incredibly well, but it took until today for it to happen: Australia have entered the top ten. Kate Miller-Heidke’s performance has clearly increased the country’s chances of doing well. They’re rapidly closing in on those right above them, which is now Iceland. Both Cyprus and Greece have been passed by the Australians today. The TV footage of the second rehearsal has definitely convinced people that it might be worth watching out for Australia next week.
  • 🇲🇹 Major credits should also go out to Malta today. Michela has not yet won a position or rehearsed for the second time, but they are shortening across the board. The gap to current #6 Switzerland is still there, but it is getting smaller by the hour. A good rehearsal from the youngster on Saturday could see her get close to the top five, making Malta one of the frontrunners for next week.
  • 🇷🇸 Similar to Malta, we see a lot of shortening occuring for Serbia. Nevena Božović is not one of the favourites for victory by any means, but she is steadily climbing the board. At our first article back in March, Serbia were as far down as #37. Thanks to their rehearsals, they are now #26, a place they’ve kept for a while now. It is however logical to expect a rise within the next couple of days for “Kruna”, possibly towards the top twenty.
  • 🇮🇪 No one is making a jump or fall bigger than one spot. The board is therefore relatively stable. Interestingly, those that won a spot after their first rehearsal have now seemingly given it back. Examples here are Moldova, North Macedonia and Ireland. Since their rehearsal, Ireland have climbed two spots and gone down three again. Sarah McTernan is now the #31 on the ranking.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

1. The Netherlands0Duncan Laurence – Arcade1111111
2. Russia0Sergey Lazarev – Scream2222222
3. Italy0Mahmood – Soldi5444443
4. Azerbaijan0Chingiz – Truth1514131213134
5. Sweden0John Lundvik – Too Late For Love3555555
6. Switzerland0Luca Hänni – She Got Me4333336
7. Malta0Michela – Chameleon9888887
8. Iceland0Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra7666668
9. Australia+2Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity17161616111111
10. Cyprus-1Tamta – Replay6777779
11. Greece-1Katerine Duska – Better Love109999910
12. France0Bilal Hassani – Roi13121111121212
13. Norway0KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky8101010101013
14. Spain+1Miki – La Venda21211415151415
15. North Macedonia-1Tamara Todevska – Proud20201717181814
16. Czech Republic0Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend22181918171716
17. Slovenia0Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi14131514161617
18. Portugal0Conan Osíris – Telemóveis11111213141518
19. Denmark0Leonora – Love Is Forever16172121212019
20. Armenia0Srbuk – Walking Out12151819191920
21. United Kingdom+1Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us23232222232222
22. Albania-1Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës36272323222121
23. Belgium0Eliot – Wake Up18192020202323
24. Estonia0Victor Crone – Storm24242424242424
25. Israel0Kobi Marimi – Home19252525252525
26. Serbia0Nevena Božović – Kruna37322926272626
27. Germany0S!sters – Sister25222627262727
28. Poland+1Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)31293128292929
29. Hungary-1Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám30303029283028
30. Finland+1Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away27262731313131
31. Ireland-1Sarah McTernan – 2226282830302830
32. Romania0Ester Peony – On A Sunday29313334333332
33. Austria0Paenda – Limits28343436353433
34. Croatia0Roko – The Dream35353232323234
35. Belarus0ZENA – Like It32363633343535
36. Lithuania+1Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions33333535363737
37. Moldova-1Anna Odobescu – Stay34383737373636
38. San Marino+1Serhat – Say Na Na Na39373838383939
39. Latvia-1Carousel – That Night40393939393838
40. Georgia0Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going38404040404040
41. Montenegro0D Mol – Heaven41414141414141

Nick van Lith

I'm one of the founding members of Eleven years after the start, I'm proud to say that I am now the Editor-in-Chief of this wonderful website. When I'm not doing Eurovision stuff, you should be able to find me teaching German to kids... And cheering on everything and everyone Greek, pretty much. Pame Ellada!
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