After the fifth day of rehearsals, it seems bookmakers (and therefore betting people) are holding out to see what happens in the next couple of days before making major adjustments in the Eurovision odds. After the rise of Azerbaijan, we now only see one new country flying into the top ten: Australia!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Italyare noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Mahmood does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Analysis: 9 May
We’ve had a day of rest yesterday, which meant no rehearsals took place in Tel Aviv. Hardly anything then changed with the bookmakers. After fifteen semifinal one acts rehearsed for the second time today, we now see some movement. Here’s our analysis of today’s changes:
- 🇦🇺 It was to be expected after a first rehearsal which went down incredibly well, but it took until today for it to happen: Australia have entered the top ten. Kate Miller-Heidke’s performance has clearly increased the country’s chances of doing well. They’re rapidly closing in on those right above them, which is now Iceland. Both Cyprus and Greece have been passed by the Australians today. The TV footage of the second rehearsal has definitely convinced people that it might be worth watching out for Australia next week.
- 🇲🇹 Major credits should also go out to Malta today. Michela has not yet won a position or rehearsed for the second time, but they are shortening across the board. The gap to current #6 Switzerland is still there, but it is getting smaller by the hour. A good rehearsal from the youngster on Saturday could see her get close to the top five, making Malta one of the frontrunners for next week.
- 🇷🇸 Similar to Malta, we see a lot of shortening occuring for Serbia. Nevena Božović is not one of the favourites for victory by any means, but she is steadily climbing the board. At our first article back in March, Serbia were as far down as #37. Thanks to their rehearsals, they are now #26, a place they’ve kept for a while now. It is however logical to expect a rise within the next couple of days for “Kruna”, possibly towards the top twenty.
- 🇮🇪 No one is making a jump or fall bigger than one spot. The board is therefore relatively stable. Interestingly, those that won a spot after their first rehearsal have now seemingly given it back. Examples here are Moldova, North Macedonia and Ireland. Since their rehearsal, Ireland have climbed two spots and gone down three again. Sarah McTernan is now the #31 on the ranking.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1||1||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. Russia||0||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||2||2||2||2||2||2||2|
|3. Italy||0||Mahmood – Soldi||5||4||4||4||4||4||3|
|4. Azerbaijan||0||Chingiz – Truth||15||14||13||12||13||13||4|
|5. Sweden||0||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||3||5||5||5||5||5||5|
|6. Switzerland||0||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4||3||3||3||3||3||6|
|7. Malta||0||Michela – Chameleon||9||8||8||8||8||8||7|
|8. Iceland||0||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||7||6||6||6||6||6||8|
|9. Australia||+2||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||17||16||16||16||11||11||11|
|10. Cyprus||-1||Tamta – Replay||6||7||7||7||7||7||9|
|11. Greece||-1||Katerine Duska – Better Love||10||9||9||9||9||9||10|
|12. France||0||Bilal Hassani – Roi||13||12||11||11||12||12||12|
|13. Norway||0||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||8||10||10||10||10||10||13|
|14. Spain||+1||Miki – La Venda||21||21||14||15||15||14||15|
|15. North Macedonia||-1||Tamara Todevska – Proud||20||20||17||17||18||18||14|
|16. Czech Republic||0||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||22||18||19||18||17||17||16|
|17. Slovenia||0||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||14||13||15||14||16||16||17|
|18. Portugal||0||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||11||11||12||13||14||15||18|
|19. Denmark||0||Leonora – Love Is Forever||16||17||21||21||21||20||19|
|20. Armenia||0||Srbuk – Walking Out||12||15||18||19||19||19||20|
|21. United Kingdom||+1||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||23||23||22||22||23||22||22|
|22. Albania||-1||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||36||27||23||23||22||21||21|
|23. Belgium||0||Eliot – Wake Up||18||19||20||20||20||23||23|
|24. Estonia||0||Victor Crone – Storm||24||24||24||24||24||24||24|
|25. Israel||0||Kobi Marimi – Home||19||25||25||25||25||25||25|
|26. Serbia||0||Nevena Božović – Kruna||37||32||29||26||27||26||26|
|27. Germany||0||S!sters – Sister||25||22||26||27||26||27||27|
|28. Poland||+1||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||31||29||31||28||29||29||29|
|29. Hungary||-1||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||30||30||30||29||28||30||28|
|30. Finland||+1||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||27||26||27||31||31||31||31|
|31. Ireland||-1||Sarah McTernan – 22||26||28||28||30||30||28||30|
|32. Romania||0||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||29||31||33||34||33||33||32|
|33. Austria||0||Paenda – Limits||28||34||34||36||35||34||33|
|34. Croatia||0||Roko – The Dream||35||35||32||32||32||32||34|
|35. Belarus||0||ZENA – Like It||32||36||36||33||34||35||35|
|36. Lithuania||+1||Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions||33||33||35||35||36||37||37|
|37. Moldova||-1||Anna Odobescu – Stay||34||38||37||37||37||36||36|
|38. San Marino||+1||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||39||37||38||38||38||39||39|
|39. Latvia||-1||Carousel – That Night||40||39||39||39||39||38||38|
|40. Georgia||0||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||38||40||40||40||40||40||40|
|41. Montenegro||0||D Mol – Heaven||41||41||41||41||41||41||41|