Betting Odds

XTRA Odds: France now in top ten as Sweden claims second place

It was the day the Big Five, including Italy, rehearsed for the first time and also the day where favourites such as Switzerland and Sweden entered the stage for the second time. It’s time to take a look how today’s marathon day affected the odds!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Mahmood does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld

Analysis: 10 May

It’s been a really eventful day. One of the Big Five certainly impressed today, but it wasn’t Italy… Check out our full analysis below!

  • 🇸🇪Sweden are the clear winner of the day. John Lundvik’s chances were fading slightly in the weeks building up to the rehearsals in Tel Aviv, falling down to #5 yesterday, but he is back properly now. The Swedish directors have managed to get the camera angles pretty much bang on for “Too Late For Love”, whereas others are still struggling. It is definitely making Sweden more and more of a favourite. They have now pushed Russia off #2, pushing Sergey Lazarev out of the top two for the first time this season.
  • 🇫🇷 The winner of the Big Five today is France. The staging France chose wasn’t for everyone, but the bold and brave choices made by the French delegation are paying off. Bilal Hassani is taking a risk, but it has brought him and France a spot in the current top ten of bookmakers. It currently is #10, but Unibet have already shortened the odds for “Roi” to 15/1 – shorter than the odds you can now get on countries like Malta, Switzerland and Iceland. Is France our next dark horse, accompanying Australia and Azerbaijan on the way up? It sure is looking like it!
  • 🇷🇸 Yesterday, we already sort of predicted that Serbia would be looking to climb on this update. Nevena Božović has done exactly that today, gaining three spots. With that score, she is the biggest climber of those that didn’t rehearse today. “Kruna” went in to the contest with little hope, coming from #37 in March, but now find themselves in #23 with their odds still shortening. Is Nevena going to make the final this time? It’s looking likely!
  • 🇮🇹 Things are looking less good for Mahmood from Italy. We know the singer wasn’t feeling well today, but it didn’t seem to harm his vocal performance. The visuals – with LEDs and dancers – seemed to hurt the chances of Italy winning the Eurovision Song Contest. Coming from odds as low as 5/1 today, we now see odds of 12/1 in some places. Italy are still looking good, but Mahmood will need a very good next rehearsal to pull momentum back to his “Soldi”. There’s time to make the necessary changes, but there is work to do if we are to believe the bookmakers.
  • 🇲🇹 Tomorrow is very likely going to be a big day. The Netherlands are looking quite stable, with minor losses across the board, going from 7/4 to 2/1 today. Russia are losing ground similarly to that, altough a drop from 4/1 to 6/1 is bigger. At the other end, we see Malta still shortening. These three will be aiming to make a grand impression tomorrow to hold on to their positions or improve them. Michela is looking more and more likely to enter the top five, especially if Mahmood keeps on drifting.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

CountryChangeEntry20/0413/0403/0504/0505/0506/0507/0509/05
1. The Netherlands0Duncan Laurence – Arcade11111111
2. Sweden+3John Lundvik – Too Late For Love35555555
3. Russia-1Sergey Lazarev – Scream22222222
4. Italy-1Mahmood – Soldi54444433
5. Azerbaijan-1Chingiz – Truth15141312131344
6. Malta+1Michela – Chameleon98888877
7. Switzerland-1Luca Hänni – She Got Me43333366
8. Iceland0Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra76666688
9. Australia0Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity171616161111119
10. France+2Bilal Hassani – Roi1312111112121212
11. Cyprus-1Tamta – Replay677777910
12. Greece-1Katerine Duska – Better Love10999991011
13. Norway0KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky810101010101313
14. Spain0Miki – La Venda2121141515141514
15. North Macedonia0Tamara Todevska – Proud2020171718181415
16. Czech Republic0Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend2218191817171616
17. Slovenia0Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi1413151416161717
18. Portugal0Conan Osíris – Telemóveis1111121314151818
19. Denmark0Leonora – Love Is Forever1617212121201919
20. Armenia0Srbuk – Walking Out1215181919192020
21. United Kingdom0Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us2323222223222221
22. Albania0Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës3627232322212122
23. Serbia+3Nevena Božović – Kruna3732292627262626
24. Belgium-1Eliot – Wake Up1819202020232323
25. Estonia-1Victor Crone – Storm2424242424242424
26. Israel-1Kobi Marimi – Home1925252525252525
27. Germany0S!sters – Sister2522262726272727
28. Poland0Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)3129312829292928
29. Hungary0Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám3030302928302829
30. Ireland+1Sarah McTernan – 222628283030283031
31. Finland-1Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away2726273131313130
32. Austria+1Paenda – Limits2834343635343333
33. Romania-1Ester Peony – On A Sunday2931333433333232
34. Croatia0Roko – The Dream3535323232323434
35. Belarus0ZENA – Like It3236363334353535
36. Moldova+1Anna Odobescu – Stay3438373737363637
37. Lithuania-1Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions3333353536373736
38. San Marino0Serhat – Say Na Na Na3937383838393938
39. Georgia+1Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going3840404040404040
40. Latvia-1Carousel – That Night4039393939383839
41. Montenegro0D Mol – Heaven4141414141414141

Check out our previous odds articles!

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