It was the day the Big Five, including Italy, rehearsed for the first time and also the day where favourites such as Switzerland and Sweden entered the stage for the second time. It’s time to take a look how today’s marathon day affected the odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Mahmood does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Analysis: 10 May
It’s been a really eventful day. One of the Big Five certainly impressed today, but it wasn’t Italy… Check out our full analysis below!
- 🇸🇪Sweden are the clear winner of the day. John Lundvik’s chances were fading slightly in the weeks building up to the rehearsals in Tel Aviv, falling down to #5 yesterday, but he is back properly now. The Swedish directors have managed to get the camera angles pretty much bang on for “Too Late For Love”, whereas others are still struggling. It is definitely making Sweden more and more of a favourite. They have now pushed Russia off #2, pushing Sergey Lazarev out of the top two for the first time this season.
- 🇫🇷 The winner of the Big Five today is France. The staging France chose wasn’t for everyone, but the bold and brave choices made by the French delegation are paying off. Bilal Hassani is taking a risk, but it has brought him and France a spot in the current top ten of bookmakers. It currently is #10, but Unibet have already shortened the odds for “Roi” to 15/1 – shorter than the odds you can now get on countries like Malta, Switzerland and Iceland. Is France our next dark horse, accompanying Australia and Azerbaijan on the way up? It sure is looking like it!
- 🇷🇸 Yesterday, we already sort of predicted that Serbia would be looking to climb on this update. Nevena Božović has done exactly that today, gaining three spots. With that score, she is the biggest climber of those that didn’t rehearse today. “Kruna” went in to the contest with little hope, coming from #37 in March, but now find themselves in #23 with their odds still shortening. Is Nevena going to make the final this time? It’s looking likely!
- 🇮🇹 Things are looking less good for Mahmood from Italy. We know the singer wasn’t feeling well today, but it didn’t seem to harm his vocal performance. The visuals – with LEDs and dancers – seemed to hurt the chances of Italy winning the Eurovision Song Contest. Coming from odds as low as 5/1 today, we now see odds of 12/1 in some places. Italy are still looking good, but Mahmood will need a very good next rehearsal to pull momentum back to his “Soldi”. There’s time to make the necessary changes, but there is work to do if we are to believe the bookmakers.
- 🇲🇹 Tomorrow is very likely going to be a big day. The Netherlands are looking quite stable, with minor losses across the board, going from 7/4 to 2/1 today. Russia are losing ground similarly to that, altough a drop from 4/1 to 6/1 is bigger. At the other end, we see Malta still shortening. These three will be aiming to make a grand impression tomorrow to hold on to their positions or improve them. Michela is looking more and more likely to enter the top five, especially if Mahmood keeps on drifting.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. Sweden||+3||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||3||5||5||5||5||5||5||5|
|3. Russia||-1||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||2|
|4. Italy||-1||Mahmood – Soldi||5||4||4||4||4||4||3||3|
|5. Azerbaijan||-1||Chingiz – Truth||15||14||13||12||13||13||4||4|
|6. Malta||+1||Michela – Chameleon||9||8||8||8||8||8||7||7|
|7. Switzerland||-1||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4||3||3||3||3||3||6||6|
|8. Iceland||0||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||7||6||6||6||6||6||8||8|
|9. Australia||0||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||17||16||16||16||11||11||11||9|
|10. France||+2||Bilal Hassani – Roi||13||12||11||11||12||12||12||12|
|11. Cyprus||-1||Tamta – Replay||6||7||7||7||7||7||9||10|
|12. Greece||-1||Katerine Duska – Better Love||10||9||9||9||9||9||10||11|
|13. Norway||0||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||8||10||10||10||10||10||13||13|
|14. Spain||0||Miki – La Venda||21||21||14||15||15||14||15||14|
|15. North Macedonia||0||Tamara Todevska – Proud||20||20||17||17||18||18||14||15|
|16. Czech Republic||0||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||22||18||19||18||17||17||16||16|
|17. Slovenia||0||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||14||13||15||14||16||16||17||17|
|18. Portugal||0||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||11||11||12||13||14||15||18||18|
|19. Denmark||0||Leonora – Love Is Forever||16||17||21||21||21||20||19||19|
|20. Armenia||0||Srbuk – Walking Out||12||15||18||19||19||19||20||20|
|21. United Kingdom||0||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||23||23||22||22||23||22||22||21|
|22. Albania||0||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||36||27||23||23||22||21||21||22|
|23. Serbia||+3||Nevena Božović – Kruna||37||32||29||26||27||26||26||26|
|24. Belgium||-1||Eliot – Wake Up||18||19||20||20||20||23||23||23|
|25. Estonia||-1||Victor Crone – Storm||24||24||24||24||24||24||24||24|
|26. Israel||-1||Kobi Marimi – Home||19||25||25||25||25||25||25||25|
|27. Germany||0||S!sters – Sister||25||22||26||27||26||27||27||27|
|28. Poland||0||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||31||29||31||28||29||29||29||28|
|29. Hungary||0||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||30||30||30||29||28||30||28||29|
|30. Ireland||+1||Sarah McTernan – 22||26||28||28||30||30||28||30||31|
|31. Finland||-1||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||27||26||27||31||31||31||31||30|
|32. Austria||+1||Paenda – Limits||28||34||34||36||35||34||33||33|
|33. Romania||-1||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||29||31||33||34||33||33||32||32|
|34. Croatia||0||Roko – The Dream||35||35||32||32||32||32||34||34|
|35. Belarus||0||ZENA – Like It||32||36||36||33||34||35||35||35|
|36. Moldova||+1||Anna Odobescu – Stay||34||38||37||37||37||36||36||37|
|37. Lithuania||-1||Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions||33||33||35||35||36||37||37||36|
|38. San Marino||0||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||39||37||38||38||38||39||39||38|
|39. Georgia||+1||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||38||40||40||40||40||40||40||40|
|40. Latvia||-1||Carousel – That Night||40||39||39||39||39||38||38||39|
|41. Montenegro||0||D Mol – Heaven||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41|