With all semifinalists now having rehearsed twice, the odds are back to where we expect them to be in Eurovision weeks: Countries flying high, sinking low and everything inbetween. At the eighth day of rehearsals, it’s time for your daily update of the Eurovision odds. Here’s XTRA Odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Azerbaijan are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Chingiz does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Analysis: 11 May
So far, we’ve never seen a whole lot of direct movement within the top ten. Today definitely has been the day with most action so far, as some changes have come with a bang!
- 🇫🇷 We must start this analysis off with France. The signs were there yesterday that Bilal Hassani is a force to be reckoned with. We asked ourselves the question whether they’d accompany Australia and Azerbaijan on the way up. The answer is a resounding yes. Coming from #10 yesterday, France can now call themselves the biggest favourite among the Big Five. They are now the #5 in the odds and are accompanying Azerbaijan on their charge for the top three. Bilal Hassani has odds as low as 9/1 now – similar to what we see at some bookies for Russia. Is he going to be the new “Roi” of Eurovision?
- 🇲🇰 North Macedonia are very clearly aiming for their first final at the Eurovision Song Contest since 2012. Tamara Todevska books another two spots and now finds herself at #13. It certainly has been a while since the staging for a song they sent to Eurovision was received as well as the mirror design for “Proud”. There’s not much going on with their odds at the moment, so it’s looking likely that a spot outside the top ten will be their home for the next few days.
- 🇮🇹 Where there are winners, there are losers. That’s a fact we all agree on and in this case, our clear losers today are Italy. Yesterday, we said Mahmood’s odds were still looking good. Sadly, that no longer seems to be the case. Not only did Italy lose a spot to Azerbaijan, also France and Malta have now surpassed “Soldi” on the rankings. A second rehearsal can do a whole lot for you, so Mahmood needs to bring his absolute A-game tomorrow when he hits the stage for the second time in Tel Aviv to see if he can climb back up.
- 🇪🇪 Visual effects obviously play a big role at the Eurovision Song Contest. Estonia know that and they are aiming for a big impact with an augmented reality staging. They had an extra rehearsal this morning to make sure the technical side was all good. Bookies are however losing faith in Victor Crone now, as he loses two spots. “Storm” is now #27 on the list.
- 🇷🇺 Russia lost their #2 spot to Sweden yesterday already. It’s not getting much better for them, despite winning our press poll. Some bookmakers are offering as much as 9/1 for a Sergey Lazarev victory next week. Russia are still #3 in our ranking, but Azerbaijan and France are coming closer rapidly.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. Sweden||0||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||3||5||5||5||5||5||5||5||2|
|3. Russia||0||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||3|
|4. Azerbaijan||+1||Chingiz – Truth||15||14||13||12||13||13||4||4||5|
|5. France||+5||Bilal Hassani – Roi||13||12||11||11||12||12||12||12||10|
|6. Malta||0||Michela – Chameleon||9||8||8||8||8||8||7||7||6|
|7. Italy||-3||Mahmood – Soldi||5||4||4||4||4||4||3||3||4|
|8. Switzerland||-1||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4||3||3||3||3||3||6||6||7|
|9. Australia||0||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||17||16||16||16||11||11||11||9||9|
|10. Iceland||-2||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||7||6||6||6||6||6||8||8||8|
|11. Greece||+1||Katerine Duska – Better Love||10||9||9||9||9||9||10||11||12|
|12. Cyprus||-1||Tamta – Replay||6||7||7||7||7||7||9||10||11|
|13. North Macedonia||+2||Tamara Todevska – Proud||20||20||17||17||18||18||14||15||15|
|14. Spain||0||Miki – La Venda||21||21||14||15||15||14||15||14||14|
|15. Norway||-2||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||8||10||10||10||10||10||13||13||13|
|16. Czech Republic||0||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||22||18||19||18||17||17||16||16||16|
|17. Slovenia||0||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||14||13||15||14||16||16||17||17||17|
|18. Denmark||+1||Leonora – Love Is Forever||16||17||21||21||21||20||19||19||19|
|19. Portugal||-1||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||11||11||12||13||14||15||18||18||18|
|20. United Kingdom||+1||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||23||23||22||22||23||22||22||21||21|
|21. Armenia||-1||Srbuk – Walking Out||12||15||18||19||19||19||20||20||20|
|22. Albania||0||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||36||27||23||23||22||21||21||22||22|
|23. Serbia||0||Nevena Božović – Kruna||37||32||29||26||27||26||26||26||23|
|24. Belgium||0||Eliot – Wake Up||18||19||20||20||20||23||23||23||24|
|25. Israel||+1||Kobi Marimi – Home||19||25||25||25||25||25||25||25||26|
|26. Germany||+1||S!sters – Sister||25||22||26||27||26||27||27||27||27|
|27. Estonia||-2||Victor Crone – Storm||24||24||24||24||24||24||24||24||25|
|28. Hungary||+1||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||30||30||30||29||28||30||28||29||29|
|29. Poland||-1||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||31||29||31||28||29||29||29||28||28|
|30. Ireland||0||Sarah McTernan – 22||26||28||28||30||30||28||30||31||30|
|31. Finland||0||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||27||26||27||31||31||31||31||30||31|
|32. Romania||+1||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||29||31||33||34||33||33||32||32||33|
|33. Austria||-1||Paenda – Limits||28||34||34||36||35||34||33||33||32|
|34. Belarus||+1||ZENA – Like It||32||36||36||33||34||35||35||35||35|
|35. Croatia||-1||Roko – The Dream||35||35||32||32||32||32||34||34||34|
|36. Moldova||0||Anna Odobescu – Stay||34||38||37||37||37||36||36||37||36|
|37. San Marino||+1||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||39||37||38||38||38||39||39||38||38|
|38. Lithuania||-1||Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions||33||33||35||35||36||37||37||36||37|
|39. Georgia||0||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||38||40||40||40||40||40||40||40||39|
|40. Latvia||0||Carousel – That Night||40||39||39||39||39||38||38||39||40|
|41. Montenegro||0||D Mol – Heaven||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41|