Betting Odds

XTRA Odds: Bilal Hassani now fifth favourite as Tamara Todevska climbs

With all semifinalists now having rehearsed twice, the odds are back to where we expect them to be in Eurovision weeks: Countries flying high, sinking low and everything inbetween. At the eighth day of rehearsals, it’s time for your daily update of the Eurovision odds. Here’s XTRA Odds!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Azerbaijan are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Chingiz does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld

Analysis: 11 May

So far, we’ve never seen a whole lot of direct movement within the top ten. Today definitely has been the day with most action so far, as some changes have come with a bang!

  • 🇫🇷 We must start this analysis off with France. The signs were there yesterday that Bilal Hassani is a force to be reckoned with. We asked ourselves the question whether they’d accompany Australia and Azerbaijan on the way up. The answer is a resounding yes. Coming from #10 yesterday, France can now call themselves the biggest favourite among the Big Five. They are now the #5 in the odds and are accompanying Azerbaijan on their charge for the top three. Bilal Hassani has odds as low as 9/1 now – similar to what we see at some bookies for Russia. Is he going to be the new “Roi” of Eurovision?
  • 🇲🇰 North Macedonia are very clearly aiming for their first final at the Eurovision Song Contest since 2012. Tamara Todevska books another two spots and now finds herself at #13. It certainly has been a while since the staging for a song they sent to Eurovision was received as well as the mirror design for “Proud”. There’s not much going on with their odds at the moment, so it’s looking likely that a spot outside the top ten will be their home for the next few days.
  • 🇮🇹 Where there are winners, there are losers. That’s a fact we all agree on and in this case, our clear losers today are Italy. Yesterday, we said Mahmood’s odds were still looking good. Sadly, that no longer seems to be the case. Not only did Italy lose a spot to Azerbaijan, also France and Malta have now surpassed “Soldi” on the rankings. A second rehearsal can do a whole lot for you, so Mahmood needs to bring his absolute A-game tomorrow when he hits the stage for the second time in Tel Aviv to see if he can climb back up.
  • 🇪🇪 Visual effects obviously play a big role at the Eurovision Song Contest. Estonia know that and they are aiming for a big impact with an augmented reality staging. They had an extra rehearsal this morning to make sure the technical side was all good. Bookies are however losing faith in Victor Crone now, as he loses two spots. “Storm” is now #27 on the list.
  • 🇷🇺 Russia lost their #2 spot to Sweden yesterday already. It’s not getting much better for them, despite winning our press poll. Some bookmakers are offering as much as 9/1 for a Sergey Lazarev victory next week. Russia are still #3 in our ranking, but Azerbaijan and France are coming closer rapidly.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

CountryChangeEntry20/0413/0403/0504/0505/0506/0507/0509/0510/05
1. The Netherlands0Duncan Laurence – Arcade111111111
2. Sweden0John Lundvik – Too Late For Love355555552
3. Russia0Sergey Lazarev – Scream222222223
4. Azerbaijan+1Chingiz – Truth151413121313445
5. France+5Bilal Hassani – Roi131211111212121210
6. Malta0Michela – Chameleon988888776
7. Italy-3Mahmood – Soldi544444334
8. Switzerland-1Luca Hänni – She Got Me433333667
9. Australia0Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity1716161611111199
10. Iceland-2Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra766666888
11. Greece+1Katerine Duska – Better Love1099999101112
12. Cyprus-1Tamta – Replay67777791011
13. North Macedonia+2Tamara Todevska – Proud202017171818141515
14. Spain0Miki – La Venda212114151514151414
15. Norway-2KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky81010101010131313
16. Czech Republic0Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend221819181717161616
17. Slovenia0Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi141315141616171717
18. Denmark+1Leonora – Love Is Forever161721212120191919
19. Portugal-1Conan Osíris – Telemóveis111112131415181818
20. United Kingdom+1Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us232322222322222121
21. Armenia-1Srbuk – Walking Out121518191919202020
22. Albania0Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës362723232221212222
23. Serbia0Nevena Božović – Kruna373229262726262623
24. Belgium0Eliot – Wake Up181920202023232324
25. Israel+1Kobi Marimi – Home192525252525252526
26. Germany+1S!sters – Sister252226272627272727
27. Estonia-2Victor Crone – Storm242424242424242425
28. Hungary+1Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám303030292830282929
29. Poland-1Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)312931282929292828
30. Ireland0Sarah McTernan – 22262828303028303130
31. Finland0Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away272627313131313031
32. Romania+1Ester Peony – On A Sunday293133343333323233
33. Austria-1Paenda – Limits283434363534333332
34. Belarus+1ZENA – Like It323636333435353535
35. Croatia-1Roko – The Dream353532323232343434
36. Moldova0Anna Odobescu – Stay343837373736363736
37. San Marino+1Serhat – Say Na Na Na393738383839393838
38. Lithuania-1Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions333335353637373637
39. Georgia0Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going384040404040404039
40. Latvia0Carousel – That Night403939393938383940
41. Montenegro0D Mol – Heaven414141414141414141

Check out our previous odds articles!

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