Betting Odds

XTRA Odds: France’s Bilal Hassani enters top three and continues to shorten

Variety isn’t quite there in the title today and we know that. For the third day in a row, France become the most noteworthy mover in the Eurovision odds. Bilal Hassani is making his way up. Can he actually win?

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Azerbaijan are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Chingiz does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld

Analysis: 12 May

Only six countries rehearsed today, so we can’t expect a whole lot of movement with the bookmakers. However, there definitely has been enough action there to analyse what has happened today and point out the most remarkable movement of the past day!

  • 🇫🇷 For the third day in a row, France are the clearest mover in the pack. After storming the top five yesterday, it’s now ‘thunder and lightning, it’s getting exciting’ for Bilal Hassani. France have overtaken both Russia and Azerbaijan to now become #3 on the ranking of Eurovision odds. With odds as short as 9/2, we most certainly cannot rule out the possibility of France becoming the #1 within a couple of days. It’s a question of whether they can keep this momentum despite not taking part in the semifinals on Tuesday or Thursday.
  • 🇳🇱 The Netherlands are remaining quite stable. There’s a slight drift happening for Duncan Laurence, but it is nothing majorly dramatic for the fans of “Arcade”. Over the past 48 hours, odds have moved from 7/4 to 11/5. It basically means that the odds have drifted slightly, but it’s far from as dramatic as things are looking for Russia, Italy or Switzerland, who have all drifted considerably more than this. Duncan’s position itself isn’t getting much weaker, it’s John Lundvik and Bilal Hassani getting stronger.
  • 🇮🇹 Italy have regrouped themselves slightly after the negative reaction to their first rehearsal. It is unlikely that Mahmood will become the favourite of the Big Five again, but he is looking up. Before his first rehearsal, he was #4. He then dropped down to #7. Now, after a slight overhaul in his second rehearsal, “Soldi” has overtaken “Chameleon” from Malta again to now claim #6.
  • 🇫🇮 Things are far from good for Finland. Darude and Sebastian Rejman were never seen as big favourites to win the contest next week, but things are looking cloudier by the day. On 3 May, they were noted as #26 for victory. Over the past week, they have dropped eight places to #34 today. They are the act losing most spots since the start of proceedings in Tel Aviv, followed by Portugal. Conan Osíris has had severe trouble during his rehearsals and that has had an effect. “Telemóveis” is now #19, coming from #12 a week ago.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

1. The Netherlands0Duncan Laurence – Arcade1111111111
2. Sweden0John Lundvik – Too Late For Love3555555522
3. France+2Bilal Hassani – Roi1312111112121212105
4. Russia-1Sergey Lazarev – Scream2222222233
5. Azerbaijan-1Chingiz – Truth1514131213134454
6. Italy+1Mahmood – Soldi5444443347
7. Malta-1Michela – Chameleon9888887766
8. Switzerland0Luca Hänni – She Got Me4333336678
9. Australia0Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity17161616111111999
10. Iceland0Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra76666688810
11. Greece0Katerine Duska – Better Love109999910111211
12. Cyprus0Tamta – Replay6777779101112
13. North Macedonia0Tamara Todevska – Proud20201717181814151513
14. Spain0Miki – La Venda21211415151415141414
15. Norway0KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky8101010101013131315
16. Czech Republic0Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend22181918171716161616
17. Slovenia0Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi14131514161617171717
18. Denmark0Leonora – Love Is Forever16172121212019191918
19. Portugal0Conan Osíris – Telemóveis11111213141518181819
20. United Kingdom0Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us23232222232222212120
21. Armenia0Srbuk – Walking Out12151819191920202021
22. Serbia+1Nevena Božović – Kruna37322926272626262323
23. Albania-1Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës36272323222121222222
24. Belgium0Eliot – Wake Up18192020202323232424
25. Israel0Kobi Marimi – Home19252525252525252625
26. Estonia+1Victor Crone – Storm24242424242424242527
27. Germany-1S!sters – Sister25222627262727272726
28. Hungary0Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám30303029283028292928
29. Poland0Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)31293128292929282829
30. Ireland0Sarah McTernan – 2226282830302830313030
31. Austria+2Paenda – Limits28343436353433333233
32. Romania0Ester Peony – On A Sunday29313334333332323332
33. Belarus+1ZENA – Like It32363633343535353534
34. Finland-3Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away27262731313131303131
35. Croatia0Roko – The Dream35353232323234343435
36. Moldova0Anna Odobescu – Stay34383737373636373636
37. San Marino0Serhat – Say Na Na Na39373838383939383837
38. Georgia+1Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going38404040404040403939
39. Lithuania-1Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions33333535363737363738
40. Latvia0Carousel – That Night40393939393838394040
41. Montenegro0D Mol – Heaven41414141414141414141

Check out our previous odds articles!

Nick van Lith

I'm one of the founding members of Eleven years after the start, I'm proud to say that I am now the Editor-in-Chief of this wonderful website. When I'm not doing Eurovision stuff, you should be able to find me teaching German to kids... And cheering on everything and everyone Greek, pretty much. Pame Ellada!
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