XTRA Odds: France’s Bilal Hassani enters top three and continues to shorten

Variety isn’t quite there in the title today and we know that. For the third day in a row, France become the most noteworthy mover in the Eurovision odds. Bilal Hassani is making his way up. Can he actually win?

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Azerbaijan are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Chingiz does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld. 

Analysis: 12 May

Only six countries rehearsed today, so we can’t expect a whole lot of movement with the bookmakers. However, there definitely has been enough action there to analyse what has happened today and point out the most remarkable movement of the past day!

• 🇫🇷 For the third day in a row, France are the clearest mover in the pack. After storming the top five yesterday, it’s now ‘thunder and lightning, it’s getting exciting’ for Bilal Hassani. France have overtaken both Russia and Azerbaijan to now become #3 on the ranking of Eurovision odds. With odds as short as 9/2, we most certainly cannot rule out the possibility of France becoming the #1 within a couple of days. It’s a question of whether they can keep this momentum despite not taking part in the semifinals on Tuesday or Thursday.
• 🇳🇱 The Netherlands are remaining quite stable. There’s a slight drift happening for Duncan Laurence, but it is nothing majorly dramatic for the fans of “Arcade”. Over the past 48 hours, odds have moved from 7/4 to 11/5. It basically means that the odds have drifted slightly, but it’s far from as dramatic as things are looking for Russia, Italy or Switzerland, who have all drifted considerably more than this. Duncan’s position itself isn’t getting much weaker, it’s John Lundvik and Bilal Hassani getting stronger.
• 🇮🇹 Italy have regrouped themselves slightly after the negative reaction to their first rehearsal. It is unlikely that Mahmood will become the favourite of the Big Five again, but he is looking up. Before his first rehearsal, he was #4. He then dropped down to #7. Now, after a slight overhaul in his second rehearsal, “Soldi” has overtaken “Chameleon” from Malta again to now claim #6.
• 🇫🇮 Things are far from good for Finland. Darude and Sebastian Rejman were never seen as big favourites to win the contest next week, but things are looking cloudier by the day. On 3 May, they were noted as #26 for victory. Over the past week, they have dropped eight places to #34 today. They are the act losing most spots since the start of proceedings in Tel Aviv, followed by Portugal. Conan Osíris has had severe trouble during his rehearsals and that has had an effect. “Telemóveis” is now #19, coming from #12 a week ago.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

Country	Change	Entry	20/04	13/04	03/05	04/05	05/05	06/05	07/05	09/05	10/05	11/05
1. The Netherlands	0	Duncan Laurence – Arcade	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2. Sweden	0	John Lundvik – Too Late For Love	3	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	2	2
3. France	+2	Bilal Hassani – Roi	13	12	11	11	12	12	12	12	10	5
4. Russia	-1	Sergey Lazarev – Scream	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3
5. Azerbaijan	-1	Chingiz – Truth	15	14	13	12	13	13	4	4	5	4
6. Italy	+1	Mahmood – Soldi	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	4	7
7. Malta	-1	Michela – Chameleon	9	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	6
8. Switzerland	0	Luca Hänni – She Got Me	4	3	3	3	3	3	6	6	7	8
9. Australia	0	Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity	17	16	16	16	11	11	11	9	9	9
10. Iceland	0	Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra	7	6	6	6	6	6	8	8	8	10
11. Greece	0	Katerine Duska – Better Love	10	9	9	9	9	9	10	11	12	11
12. Cyprus	0	Tamta – Replay	6	7	7	7	7	7	9	10	11	12
13. North Macedonia	0	Tamara Todevska – Proud	20	20	17	17	18	18	14	15	15	13
14. Spain	0	Miki – La Venda	21	21	14	15	15	14	15	14	14	14
15. Norway	0	KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky	8	10	10	10	10	10	13	13	13	15
16. Czech Republic	0	Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend	22	18	19	18	17	17	16	16	16	16
17. Slovenia	0	Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi	14	13	15	14	16	16	17	17	17	17
18. Denmark	0	Leonora – Love Is Forever	16	17	21	21	21	20	19	19	19	18
19. Portugal	0	Conan Osíris – Telemóveis	11	11	12	13	14	15	18	18	18	19
20. United Kingdom	0	Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us	23	23	22	22	23	22	22	21	21	20
21. Armenia	0	Srbuk – Walking Out	12	15	18	19	19	19	20	20	20	21
22. Serbia	+1	Nevena Božović – Kruna	37	32	29	26	27	26	26	26	23	23
23. Albania	-1	Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës	36	27	23	23	22	21	21	22	22	22
24. Belgium	0	Eliot – Wake Up	18	19	20	20	20	23	23	23	24	24
25. Israel	0	Kobi Marimi – Home	19	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	26	25
26. Estonia	+1	Victor Crone – Storm	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	25	27
27. Germany	-1	S!sters – Sister	25	22	26	27	26	27	27	27	27	26
28. Hungary	0	Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám	30	30	30	29	28	30	28	29	29	28
29. Poland	0	Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)	31	29	31	28	29	29	29	28	28	29
30. Ireland	0	Sarah McTernan – 22	26	28	28	30	30	28	30	31	30	30
31. Austria	+2	Paenda – Limits	28	34	34	36	35	34	33	33	32	33
32. Romania	0	Ester Peony – On A Sunday	29	31	33	34	33	33	32	32	33	32
33. Belarus	+1	ZENA – Like It	32	36	36	33	34	35	35	35	35	34
34. Finland	-3	Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away	27	26	27	31	31	31	31	30	31	31
35. Croatia	0	Roko – The Dream	35	35	32	32	32	32	34	34	34	35
36. Moldova	0	Anna Odobescu – Stay	34	38	37	37	37	36	36	37	36	36
37. San Marino	0	Serhat – Say Na Na Na	39	37	38	38	38	39	39	38	38	37
38. Georgia	+1	Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going	38	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	39	39
39. Lithuania	-1	Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions	33	33	35	35	36	37	37	36	37	38
40. Latvia	0	Carousel – That Night	40	39	39	39	39	38	38	39	40	40
41. Montenegro	0	D Mol – Heaven	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41

Check out our previous odds articles!

• 20 March
• 13 April
• 3 May
• 4 May
• 5 May
• 6 May
• 7 May
• 9 May
• 10 May
• 11 May