Variety isn’t quite there in the title today and we know that. For the third day in a row, France become the most noteworthy mover in the Eurovision odds. Bilal Hassani is making his way up. Can he actually win?
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Azerbaijan are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Chingiz does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Analysis: 12 May
Only six countries rehearsed today, so we can’t expect a whole lot of movement with the bookmakers. However, there definitely has been enough action there to analyse what has happened today and point out the most remarkable movement of the past day!
For the third day in a row, France are the clearest mover in the pack. After storming the top five yesterday, it’s now ‘thunder and lightning, it’s getting exciting’ for Bilal Hassani. France have overtaken both Russia and Azerbaijan to now become #3 on the ranking of Eurovision odds. With odds as short as 9/2, we most certainly cannot rule out the possibility of France becoming the #1 within a couple of days. It’s a question of whether they can keep this momentum despite not taking part in the semifinals on Tuesday or Thursday. The Netherlands are remaining quite stable. There’s a slight drift happening for Duncan Laurence, but it is nothing majorly dramatic for the fans of “Arcade”. Over the past 48 hours, odds have moved from 7/4 to 11/5. It basically means that the odds have drifted slightly, but it’s far from as dramatic as things are looking for Russia, Italy or Switzerland, who have all drifted considerably more than this. Duncan’s position itself isn’t getting much weaker, it’s John Lundvik and Bilal Hassani getting stronger. Italy have regrouped themselves slightly after the negative reaction to their first rehearsal. It is unlikely that Mahmood will become the favourite of the Big Five again, but he is looking up. Before his first rehearsal, he was #4. He then dropped down to #7. Now, after a slight overhaul in his second rehearsal, “Soldi” has overtaken “Chameleon” from Malta again to now claim #6. Things are far from good for Finland. Darude and Sebastian Rejman were never seen as big favourites to win the contest next week, but things are looking cloudier by the day. On 3 May, they were noted as #26 for victory. Over the past week, they have dropped eight places to #34 today. They are the act losing most spots since the start of proceedings in Tel Aviv, followed by Portugal. Conan Osíris has had severe trouble during his rehearsals and that has had an effect. “Telemóveis” is now #19, coming from #12 a week ago.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. Sweden||0||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||3||5||5||5||5||5||5||5||2||2|
|3. France||+2||Bilal Hassani – Roi||13||12||11||11||12||12||12||12||10||5|
|4. Russia||-1||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||3||3|
|5. Azerbaijan||-1||Chingiz – Truth||15||14||13||12||13||13||4||4||5||4|
|6. Italy||+1||Mahmood – Soldi||5||4||4||4||4||4||3||3||4||7|
|7. Malta||-1||Michela – Chameleon||9||8||8||8||8||8||7||7||6||6|
|8. Switzerland||0||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4||3||3||3||3||3||6||6||7||8|
|9. Australia||0||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||17||16||16||16||11||11||11||9||9||9|
|10. Iceland||0||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||7||6||6||6||6||6||8||8||8||10|
|11. Greece||0||Katerine Duska – Better Love||10||9||9||9||9||9||10||11||12||11|
|12. Cyprus||0||Tamta – Replay||6||7||7||7||7||7||9||10||11||12|
|13. North Macedonia||0||Tamara Todevska – Proud||20||20||17||17||18||18||14||15||15||13|
|14. Spain||0||Miki – La Venda||21||21||14||15||15||14||15||14||14||14|
|15. Norway||0||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||8||10||10||10||10||10||13||13||13||15|
|16. Czech Republic||0||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||22||18||19||18||17||17||16||16||16||16|
|17. Slovenia||0||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||14||13||15||14||16||16||17||17||17||17|
|18. Denmark||0||Leonora – Love Is Forever||16||17||21||21||21||20||19||19||19||18|
|19. Portugal||0||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||11||11||12||13||14||15||18||18||18||19|
|20. United Kingdom||0||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||23||23||22||22||23||22||22||21||21||20|
|21. Armenia||0||Srbuk – Walking Out||12||15||18||19||19||19||20||20||20||21|
|22. Serbia||+1||Nevena Božović – Kruna||37||32||29||26||27||26||26||26||23||23|
|23. Albania||-1||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||36||27||23||23||22||21||21||22||22||22|
|24. Belgium||0||Eliot – Wake Up||18||19||20||20||20||23||23||23||24||24|
|25. Israel||0||Kobi Marimi – Home||19||25||25||25||25||25||25||25||26||25|
|26. Estonia||+1||Victor Crone – Storm||24||24||24||24||24||24||24||24||25||27|
|27. Germany||-1||S!sters – Sister||25||22||26||27||26||27||27||27||27||26|
|28. Hungary||0||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||30||30||30||29||28||30||28||29||29||28|
|29. Poland||0||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||31||29||31||28||29||29||29||28||28||29|
|30. Ireland||0||Sarah McTernan – 22||26||28||28||30||30||28||30||31||30||30|
|31. Austria||+2||Paenda – Limits||28||34||34||36||35||34||33||33||32||33|
|32. Romania||0||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||29||31||33||34||33||33||32||32||33||32|
|33. Belarus||+1||ZENA – Like It||32||36||36||33||34||35||35||35||35||34|
|34. Finland||-3||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||27||26||27||31||31||31||31||30||31||31|
|35. Croatia||0||Roko – The Dream||35||35||32||32||32||32||34||34||34||35|
|36. Moldova||0||Anna Odobescu – Stay||34||38||37||37||37||36||36||37||36||36|
|37. San Marino||0||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||39||37||38||38||38||39||39||38||38||37|
|38. Georgia||+1||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||38||40||40||40||40||40||40||40||39||39|
|39. Lithuania||-1||Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions||33||33||35||35||36||37||37||36||37||38|
|40. Latvia||0||Carousel – That Night||40||39||39||39||39||38||38||39||40||40|
|41. Montenegro||0||D Mol – Heaven||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41|