Betting Odds

XTRA Odds: Australia now top three as Finland bounce back slightly

Azerbaijan? France? Russia? Australia? Who on earth is taking that #3 spot with the bookmakers. Another day, another change. Half of the semifinal result has already been decided for our first semi tonight, so how did these rehearsals impact the results? Here is our last update with all 41 songs. Tomorrow, we’ll be down to 34…

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, France are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Bilal Hassani does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Analysis: 14 May

When the day is here, tension is rising. Those who aren’t huge Eurovision fans now take a look at where there’s money to be made. It will cause great movements with the bookmakers in the upcoming days. Australia are definitely still on the rise, but what about our other 40 acts? Let’s see below!

  • 🇦🇺 Like with the hype around France a few days ago, we now dedicate our third article headline to Australia. Kate Miller-Heidke has by now climbed a whopping total of fourteen spots since March: From #17 to #3 at the moment. The lady on a pole is rapidly shortening, but there’s no guarantee that this will keep happening. Tonight’s performance will be crucial for Kate. Can she move up further or is it, like we saw for Chingiz and Bilal Hassani, too hard to maintain the hype for her “Zero Gravity”?
  • 🇫🇷 The hype around France is slowing down. They are still maintaining a spot in the top five, currently taking #5. It all seems like the shortening of the past couple of days went a little too quickly. The moment Bilal Hassani hit odds of 4/1, it no longer seemed interesting to those placing bets to actual put money on a French victory. This may only have been worth a punt for those taking it at 12/1, like it was when “Roi” started shortening. Bookies now have them drifting back to around 10/1.
  • 🇫🇮 The past few articles, we’ve mentioned Finland as one of the bigger losers of the past weeks. Going from #26 to #35 in a couple of days was the biggest loss of any act. There’s still no reason to think ‘Helsinki 2020’, but Darude and Sebastian Rejman have been helped by the live audience. They bounce back and climb two spots. “Look Away” now is the #33 with the bookmakers.
  • 🇮🇸 Also bouncing back slightly are Iceland. Hatari’s media attention had died down until this week. They were at the verge of slipping out of the top ten with acts like Greece and North Macedonia doing better and better. However, Iceland now bounce back slightly. They have passed Malta to now claim #9 on the list. It remains to be seen what happens after tonight, if Hatari manage to make it through.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

CountryChangeEntry20/0413/0403/0504/0505/0506/0507/0509/0510/0511/0512/0513/05
1. The Netherlands0Duncan Laurence – Arcade111111111111
2. Sweden0John Lundvik – Too Late For Love355555552222
3. Australia+3Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity1716161611111199996
4. Russia0Sergey Lazarev – Scream222222223344
5. France-2Bilal Hassani – Roi131211111212121210533
6. Azerbaijan-1Chingiz – Truth151413121313445455
7. Italy0Mahmood – Soldi544444334767
8. Switzerland0Luca Hänni – She Got Me433333667888
9. Iceland+1Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra766666888101010
10. Malta-1Michela – Chameleon988888776679
11. Greece0Katerine Duska – Better Love1099999101112111111
12. Cyprus0Tamta – Replay67777791011121212
13. Spain+1Miki – La Venda212114151514151414141414
14. North Macedonia-1Tamara Todevska – Proud202017171818141515131313
15. Norway0KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky81010101010131313151515
16. Czech Republic0Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend221819181717161616161616
17. Slovenia0Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi141315141616171717171717
18. Denmark0Leonora – Love Is Forever161721212120191919181818
19. Portugal0Conan Osíris – Telemóveis111112131415181818191919
20. Serbia0Nevena Božović – Kruna373229262726262623232220
21. Armenia+1Srbuk – Walking Out121518191919202020212122
22. United Kingdom-1Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us232322222322222121202021
23. Albania0Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës362723232221212222222323
24. Belgium0Eliot – Wake Up181920202023232324242424
25. Israel0Kobi Marimi – Home192525252525252526252525
26. Estonia0Victor Crone – Storm242424242424242425272626
27. Hungary0Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám303030292830282929282827
28. Germany0S!sters – Sister252226272627272727262728
29. Ireland+1Sarah McTernan – 22262828303028303130303030
30. Poland-1Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)312931282929292828292929
31. Belarus+1ZENA – Like It323636333435353535343332
32. Romania-1Ester Peony – On A Sunday293133343333323233323231
33. Finland+2Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away272627313131313031313435
34. Austria-1Paenda – Limits283434363534333332333133
35. Croatia-1Roko – The Dream353532323232343434353534
36. Moldova0Anna Odobescu – Stay343837373736363736363636
37. Georgia0Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going384040404040404039393837
38. San Marino0Serhat – Say Na Na Na393738383839393838373738
39. Lithuania0Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions333335353637373637383939
40. Latvia0Carousel – That Night403939393938383940404040
41. Montenegro0D Mol – Heaven414141414141414141414141

Check out our previous odds articles!

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