Azerbaijan? France? Russia? Australia? Who on earth is taking that #3 spot with the bookmakers. Another day, another change. Half of the semifinal result has already been decided for our first semi tonight, so how did these rehearsals impact the results? Here is our last update with all 41 songs. Tomorrow, we’ll be down to 34…
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, France are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Bilal Hassani does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Analysis: 14 May
When the day is here, tension is rising. Those who aren’t huge Eurovision fans now take a look at where there’s money to be made. It will cause great movements with the bookmakers in the upcoming days. Australia are definitely still on the rise, but what about our other 40 acts? Let’s see below!
- 🇦🇺 Like with the hype around France a few days ago, we now dedicate our third article headline to Australia. Kate Miller-Heidke has by now climbed a whopping total of fourteen spots since March: From #17 to #3 at the moment. The lady on a pole is rapidly shortening, but there’s no guarantee that this will keep happening. Tonight’s performance will be crucial for Kate. Can she move up further or is it, like we saw for Chingiz and Bilal Hassani, too hard to maintain the hype for her “Zero Gravity”?
- 🇫🇷 The hype around France is slowing down. They are still maintaining a spot in the top five, currently taking #5. It all seems like the shortening of the past couple of days went a little too quickly. The moment Bilal Hassani hit odds of 4/1, it no longer seemed interesting to those placing bets to actual put money on a French victory. This may only have been worth a punt for those taking it at 12/1, like it was when “Roi” started shortening. Bookies now have them drifting back to around 10/1.
- 🇫🇮 The past few articles, we’ve mentioned Finland as one of the bigger losers of the past weeks. Going from #26 to #35 in a couple of days was the biggest loss of any act. There’s still no reason to think ‘Helsinki 2020’, but Darude and Sebastian Rejman have been helped by the live audience. They bounce back and climb two spots. “Look Away” now is the #33 with the bookmakers.
- 🇮🇸 Also bouncing back slightly are Iceland. Hatari’s media attention had died down until this week. They were at the verge of slipping out of the top ten with acts like Greece and North Macedonia doing better and better. However, Iceland now bounce back slightly. They have passed Malta to now claim #9 on the list. It remains to be seen what happens after tonight, if Hatari manage to make it through.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. Sweden||0||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||3||5||5||5||5||5||5||5||2||2||2||2|
|3. Australia||+3||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||17||16||16||16||11||11||11||9||9||9||9||6|
|4. Russia||0||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||3||3||4||4|
|5. France||-2||Bilal Hassani – Roi||13||12||11||11||12||12||12||12||10||5||3||3|
|6. Azerbaijan||-1||Chingiz – Truth||15||14||13||12||13||13||4||4||5||4||5||5|
|7. Italy||0||Mahmood – Soldi||5||4||4||4||4||4||3||3||4||7||6||7|
|8. Switzerland||0||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4||3||3||3||3||3||6||6||7||8||8||8|
|9. Iceland||+1||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||7||6||6||6||6||6||8||8||8||10||10||10|
|10. Malta||-1||Michela – Chameleon||9||8||8||8||8||8||7||7||6||6||7||9|
|11. Greece||0||Katerine Duska – Better Love||10||9||9||9||9||9||10||11||12||11||11||11|
|12. Cyprus||0||Tamta – Replay||6||7||7||7||7||7||9||10||11||12||12||12|
|13. Spain||+1||Miki – La Venda||21||21||14||15||15||14||15||14||14||14||14||14|
|14. North Macedonia||-1||Tamara Todevska – Proud||20||20||17||17||18||18||14||15||15||13||13||13|
|15. Norway||0||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||8||10||10||10||10||10||13||13||13||15||15||15|
|16. Czech Republic||0||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||22||18||19||18||17||17||16||16||16||16||16||16|
|17. Slovenia||0||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||14||13||15||14||16||16||17||17||17||17||17||17|
|18. Denmark||0||Leonora – Love Is Forever||16||17||21||21||21||20||19||19||19||18||18||18|
|19. Portugal||0||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||11||11||12||13||14||15||18||18||18||19||19||19|
|20. Serbia||0||Nevena Božović – Kruna||37||32||29||26||27||26||26||26||23||23||22||20|
|21. Armenia||+1||Srbuk – Walking Out||12||15||18||19||19||19||20||20||20||21||21||22|
|22. United Kingdom||-1||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||23||23||22||22||23||22||22||21||21||20||20||21|
|23. Albania||0||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||36||27||23||23||22||21||21||22||22||22||23||23|
|24. Belgium||0||Eliot – Wake Up||18||19||20||20||20||23||23||23||24||24||24||24|
|25. Israel||0||Kobi Marimi – Home||19||25||25||25||25||25||25||25||26||25||25||25|
|26. Estonia||0||Victor Crone – Storm||24||24||24||24||24||24||24||24||25||27||26||26|
|27. Hungary||0||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||30||30||30||29||28||30||28||29||29||28||28||27|
|28. Germany||0||S!sters – Sister||25||22||26||27||26||27||27||27||27||26||27||28|
|29. Ireland||+1||Sarah McTernan – 22||26||28||28||30||30||28||30||31||30||30||30||30|
|30. Poland||-1||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||31||29||31||28||29||29||29||28||28||29||29||29|
|31. Belarus||+1||ZENA – Like It||32||36||36||33||34||35||35||35||35||34||33||32|
|32. Romania||-1||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||29||31||33||34||33||33||32||32||33||32||32||31|
|33. Finland||+2||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||27||26||27||31||31||31||31||30||31||31||34||35|
|34. Austria||-1||Paenda – Limits||28||34||34||36||35||34||33||33||32||33||31||33|
|35. Croatia||-1||Roko – The Dream||35||35||32||32||32||32||34||34||34||35||35||34|
|36. Moldova||0||Anna Odobescu – Stay||34||38||37||37||37||36||36||37||36||36||36||36|
|37. Georgia||0||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||38||40||40||40||40||40||40||40||39||39||38||37|
|38. San Marino||0||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||39||37||38||38||38||39||39||38||38||37||37||38|
|39. Lithuania||0||Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions||33||33||35||35||36||37||37||36||37||38||39||39|
|40. Latvia||0||Carousel – That Night||40||39||39||39||39||38||38||39||40||40||40||40|
|41. Montenegro||0||D Mol – Heaven||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41|