Betting Odds

XTRA Odds: The sky is the limit for Australia’s Kate Miller-Heidke

Half of the result of the first semifinal has now been decided. It must be a weird feeling: We’ve been preparing for this for months and months and now the time is here. It’s also the week where bookmakers go berserk with their odds. Expect flying high and sinking low in the upcoming days!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Azerbaijan are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Chingiz does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Analysis: 13 May (Jury rehearsal – semi 1)

When the juries vote, those who bet and therefore bookmakers respond to what they think may have gone on behind the closed doors at the EXPO Tel Aviv. One country is definitely flying high today, so let’s take a look at today’s movement!

  • 🇦🇺 Kate Miller-Heidke has presumably had a fantastic jury show tonight. Australia entered the top ten a while ago, but steadily stuck around at #9 until today. It’s a full row of shortening with pretty much every bookmakers out there at the moment. They have passed many who did not rehearse today and now find themselves at #6. It’s a relatively big jump, bigger than anyone else today. The sky seems to be the limit for “Zero Gravity”. Can she climb even more after tomorrow, assuming she will qualify for the Grand Final?
  • 🇳🇱 From #1 to #1 – it’s not like we see a whole lot of movement for The Netherlands, but there sure has been. Since this morning, we’ve seen a lot of shortening going on for Duncan Laurence. The odds are back to the level they were at before their second rehearsal: 2/1 with most of the bookmakers. Yesterday, we were a little unsure whether Duncan could keep his #1 spot in the upcoming days, but it’s now looking quite likely that he, in fact, will. He is stable as #1, with both John Lundvik and Bilal Hassani, his nearest chasers, drifting slightly.
  • 🇲🇹 Where the Netherlands overcame their technical issues according to the bookmakers, Malta didn’t. Due to production problems, they couldn’t use their small screen and had to revert to plan B. It has not helped them forward. Where a couple of days ago, their rise came so quickly that a potential spot in the top five could not be ruled out, we’re now looking at maintaining a top ten spot. Michela has dropped down to #9 and with Greece currently shortening in #11, it’s going to be interesting to see what will happen next.
  • 🇷🇸 Yesterday’s movements have continued. Serbia are clearly still on the rise. Nevena Božović enters the top twenty for the first time with her song “Kruna”. Slowly, but steadily, she is making her way up. Back in March, she was #37, so her current #20 is a climb of seventeen places – more than any other acts at the moment. At the other end, Finland drop down another spot, now finding themselves at #35.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

CountryChangeEntry20/0413/0403/0504/0505/0506/0507/0509/0510/0511/0512/05
1. The Netherlands0Duncan Laurence – Arcade11111111111
2. Sweden0John Lundvik – Too Late For Love35555555222
3. France0Bilal Hassani – Roi13121111121212121053
4. Russia0Sergey Lazarev – Scream22222222334
5. Azerbaijan0Chingiz – Truth15141312131344545
6. Australia+3Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity171616161111119999
7. Italy-1Mahmood – Soldi54444433476
8. Switzerland0Luca Hänni – She Got Me43333366788
9. Malta-2Michela – Chameleon98888877667
10. Iceland0Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra7666668881010
11. Greece0Katerine Duska – Better Love10999991011121111
12. Cyprus0Tamta – Replay677777910111212
13. North Macedonia0Tamara Todevska – Proud2020171718181415151313
14. Spain0Miki – La Venda2121141515141514141414
15. Norway0KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky810101010101313131515
16. Czech Republic0Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend2218191817171616161616
17. Slovenia0Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi1413151416161717171717
18. Denmark0Leonora – Love Is Forever1617212121201919191818
19. Portugal0Conan Osíris – Telemóveis1111121314151818181919
20. Serbia+2Nevena Božović – Kruna3732292627262626232322
21. United Kingdom-1Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us2323222223222221212020
22. Armenia-1Srbuk – Walking Out1215181919192020202121
23. Albania0Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës3627232322212122222223
24. Belgium0Eliot – Wake Up1819202020232323242424
25. Israel0Kobi Marimi – Home1925252525252525262525
26. Estonia0Victor Crone – Storm2424242424242424252726
27. Hungary+1Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám3030302928302829292828
28. Germany-1S!sters – Sister2522262726272727272627
29. Poland0Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)3129312829292928282929
30. Ireland0Sarah McTernan – 222628283030283031303030
31. Romania+1Ester Peony – On A Sunday2931333433333232333232
32. Belarus+1ZENA – Like It3236363334353535353433
33. Austria-2Paenda – Limits2834343635343333323331
34. Croatia+1Roko – The Dream3535323232323434343535
35. Finland-1Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away2726273131313130313134
36. Moldova0Anna Odobescu – Stay3438373737363637363636
37. Georgia+1Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going3840404040404040393938
38. San Marino-1Serhat – Say Na Na Na3937383838393938383737
39. Lithuania0Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions3333353536373736373839
40. Latvia0Carousel – That Night4039393939383839404040
41. Montenegro0D Mol – Heaven4141414141414141414141

Check out our previous odds articles!

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