Half of the result of the first semifinal has now been decided. It must be a weird feeling: We’ve been preparing for this for months and months and now the time is here. It’s also the week where bookmakers go berserk with their odds. Expect flying high and sinking low in the upcoming days!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Azerbaijan are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Chingiz does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Montenegro. D Mol find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 400/1. If D-Moll were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €400 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Analysis: 13 May (Jury rehearsal – semi 1)
When the juries vote, those who bet and therefore bookmakers respond to what they think may have gone on behind the closed doors at the EXPO Tel Aviv. One country is definitely flying high today, so let’s take a look at today’s movement!
- 🇦🇺 Kate Miller-Heidke has presumably had a fantastic jury show tonight. Australia entered the top ten a while ago, but steadily stuck around at #9 until today. It’s a full row of shortening with pretty much every bookmakers out there at the moment. They have passed many who did not rehearse today and now find themselves at #6. It’s a relatively big jump, bigger than anyone else today. The sky seems to be the limit for “Zero Gravity”. Can she climb even more after tomorrow, assuming she will qualify for the Grand Final?
- 🇳🇱 From #1 to #1 – it’s not like we see a whole lot of movement for The Netherlands, but there sure has been. Since this morning, we’ve seen a lot of shortening going on for Duncan Laurence. The odds are back to the level they were at before their second rehearsal: 2/1 with most of the bookmakers. Yesterday, we were a little unsure whether Duncan could keep his #1 spot in the upcoming days, but it’s now looking quite likely that he, in fact, will. He is stable as #1, with both John Lundvik and Bilal Hassani, his nearest chasers, drifting slightly.
- 🇲🇹 Where the Netherlands overcame their technical issues according to the bookmakers, Malta didn’t. Due to production problems, they couldn’t use their small screen and had to revert to plan B. It has not helped them forward. Where a couple of days ago, their rise came so quickly that a potential spot in the top five could not be ruled out, we’re now looking at maintaining a top ten spot. Michela has dropped down to #9 and with Greece currently shortening in #11, it’s going to be interesting to see what will happen next.
- 🇷🇸 Yesterday’s movements have continued. Serbia are clearly still on the rise. Nevena Božović enters the top twenty for the first time with her song “Kruna”. Slowly, but steadily, she is making her way up. Back in March, she was #37, so her current #20 is a climb of seventeen places – more than any other acts at the moment. At the other end, Finland drop down another spot, now finding themselves at #35.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. Sweden||0||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||3||5||5||5||5||5||5||5||2||2||2|
|3. France||0||Bilal Hassani – Roi||13||12||11||11||12||12||12||12||10||5||3|
|4. Russia||0||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||3||3||4|
|5. Azerbaijan||0||Chingiz – Truth||15||14||13||12||13||13||4||4||5||4||5|
|6. Australia||+3||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||17||16||16||16||11||11||11||9||9||9||9|
|7. Italy||-1||Mahmood – Soldi||5||4||4||4||4||4||3||3||4||7||6|
|8. Switzerland||0||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4||3||3||3||3||3||6||6||7||8||8|
|9. Malta||-2||Michela – Chameleon||9||8||8||8||8||8||7||7||6||6||7|
|10. Iceland||0||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||7||6||6||6||6||6||8||8||8||10||10|
|11. Greece||0||Katerine Duska – Better Love||10||9||9||9||9||9||10||11||12||11||11|
|12. Cyprus||0||Tamta – Replay||6||7||7||7||7||7||9||10||11||12||12|
|13. North Macedonia||0||Tamara Todevska – Proud||20||20||17||17||18||18||14||15||15||13||13|
|14. Spain||0||Miki – La Venda||21||21||14||15||15||14||15||14||14||14||14|
|15. Norway||0||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||8||10||10||10||10||10||13||13||13||15||15|
|16. Czech Republic||0||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||22||18||19||18||17||17||16||16||16||16||16|
|17. Slovenia||0||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||14||13||15||14||16||16||17||17||17||17||17|
|18. Denmark||0||Leonora – Love Is Forever||16||17||21||21||21||20||19||19||19||18||18|
|19. Portugal||0||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||11||11||12||13||14||15||18||18||18||19||19|
|20. Serbia||+2||Nevena Božović – Kruna||37||32||29||26||27||26||26||26||23||23||22|
|21. United Kingdom||-1||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||23||23||22||22||23||22||22||21||21||20||20|
|22. Armenia||-1||Srbuk – Walking Out||12||15||18||19||19||19||20||20||20||21||21|
|23. Albania||0||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||36||27||23||23||22||21||21||22||22||22||23|
|24. Belgium||0||Eliot – Wake Up||18||19||20||20||20||23||23||23||24||24||24|
|25. Israel||0||Kobi Marimi – Home||19||25||25||25||25||25||25||25||26||25||25|
|26. Estonia||0||Victor Crone – Storm||24||24||24||24||24||24||24||24||25||27||26|
|27. Hungary||+1||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||30||30||30||29||28||30||28||29||29||28||28|
|28. Germany||-1||S!sters – Sister||25||22||26||27||26||27||27||27||27||26||27|
|29. Poland||0||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||31||29||31||28||29||29||29||28||28||29||29|
|30. Ireland||0||Sarah McTernan – 22||26||28||28||30||30||28||30||31||30||30||30|
|31. Romania||+1||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||29||31||33||34||33||33||32||32||33||32||32|
|32. Belarus||+1||ZENA – Like It||32||36||36||33||34||35||35||35||35||34||33|
|33. Austria||-2||Paenda – Limits||28||34||34||36||35||34||33||33||32||33||31|
|34. Croatia||+1||Roko – The Dream||35||35||32||32||32||32||34||34||34||35||35|
|35. Finland||-1||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||27||26||27||31||31||31||31||30||31||31||34|
|36. Moldova||0||Anna Odobescu – Stay||34||38||37||37||37||36||36||37||36||36||36|
|37. Georgia||+1||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||38||40||40||40||40||40||40||40||39||39||38|
|38. San Marino||-1||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||39||37||38||38||38||39||39||38||38||37||37|
|39. Lithuania||0||Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions||33||33||35||35||36||37||37||36||37||38||39|
|40. Latvia||0||Carousel – That Night||40||39||39||39||39||38||38||39||40||40||40|
|41. Montenegro||0||D Mol – Heaven||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41|