XTRA Odds: The Netherlands solidifies its place at the top

The storm has settled down, at least the ‘sandstorm’ has. Seven countries have left the competition, which means the bookies have a lot to do! Quite a few countries have obviously climbed and a couple have fallen down rapidly… Time for another update of the Eurovision odds!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Russia are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Sergey Lazarev does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Latvia. Carousel find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If they were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Analysis: 15 May

With seven less countries, it’s worth noting that pretty much everyone at the bottom of the scoreboard is climbing, at least slightly. Today, however, we look at those with remarkable rises. Let’s see what happened today at the Eurovision odds for the 2019 contest.

  • 🇳🇱 He struggled during his second rehearsal, but he is definitely back now. The Netherlands have solidified their #1 position, something we saw happening yesterday. Coming from odds of 3/1 this weekend, the best you can now get is 13/8. That means their odds have almost halved: €8 this weekend brought you €24 for a Dutch victory, now it’s just €13. The light is working, the staging is there and Ilse DeLange can rest assured that they got things right now. EurovisionWorld also provide winning chances. They now claim The Netherlands have a 30% chance of winning, compared to 13% for #2, Sweden.
  • 🇸🇲 San Marino are, on paper, the biggest climber after yesterday. In terms of winning the contest, Serhat was a total no-hoper. He probably still is, but his rise from #38 to #26 is a giant leap for the microstate. Six of the countries he left behind now are non-qualifiers, but that still leaves six more he overtook as bookmakers now think he is more hopeful of victory than those. Such countries include Romania and Israel.
  • 🇮🇸 Will hate prevail? It could! It prevailed in the semifinal where Iceland managed to qualify for the Grand Final. Hatari have brought the island back to the final for the first time since 2014. They have now cracked the top five, sitting right at #5 today. Iceland are one of four countries who have shot up to the top five after live performances. The others, France, Azerbaijan and Australia, have all gone down again, with the exception of Australia, who still claim #3.
  • 🇨🇿 Another winner of last night is Lake Malawi from the Czech Republic. They’re the ones who now have a bigger chance of making the top ten with the bookmakers than acts such as Norway, Spain or North Macedonia. In March, Lake Malawi were seen as a borderline qualifier, also sitting in #22 with the odds. They are now the proud #13 on the list – a score much better. Can they climb further?

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

1. The Netherlands0Duncan Laurence – Arcade1111111111111
2. Sweden0John Lundvik – Too Late For Love3555555522222
3. Australia0Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity17161616111111999963
4. Russia0Sergey Lazarev – Scream2222222233444
5. Iceland+4Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra7666668881010109
6. Azerbaijan0Chingiz – Truth1514131213134454556
7. France-2Bilal Hassani – Roi1312111112121212105335
8. Italy-1Mahmood – Soldi5444443347677
9. Switzerland-1Luca Hänni – She Got Me4333336678888
10. Malta0Michela – Chameleon98888877667910
11. Cyprus+1Tamta – Replay6777779101112121212
12. Greece-2Katerine Duska – Better Love109999910111211111111
13. Czech Republic+3Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend22181918171716161616161616
14. Spain-1Miki – La Venda21211415151415141414141413
15. Serbia+5Nevena Božović – Kruna37322926272626262323222020
16. Norway-1KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky8101010101013131315151515
17. Estonia+9Victor Crone – Storm24242424242424242527262626
18. North Macedonia-4Tamara Todevska – Proud20201717181814151513131314
19. Slovenia-2Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi14131514161617171717171717
20. Denmark-2Leonora – Love Is Forever16172121212019191918181818
21. Belarus+10ZENA – Like It32363633343535353534333231
22. United Kingdom0Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us23232222232222212120202122
23. Armenia-2Srbuk – Walking Out12151819191920202021212221
24. Albania-1Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës36272323222121222222232323
25. Israel0Kobi Marimi – Home19252525252525252625252525
26. San Marino+12Serhat – Say Na Na Na39373838383939383837373838
27. Austria+7Paenda – Limits28343436353433333233313334
29. Romania+4Ester Peony – On A Sunday29313334333332323332323132
28. Germany-1S!sters – Sister25222627262727272726272828
30. Ireland-1Sarah McTernan – 2226282830302830313030303029
31. Croatia+4Roko – The Dream35353232323234343435353435
32. Moldova+4Anna Odobescu – Stay34383737373636373636363636
33. Lithuania+6Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions33333535363737363738393939
34. Latvia+6Carousel – That Night40393939393838394040404040
NQ. PortugalN/AConan Osíris – Telemóveis11111213141518181819191919
NQ. BelgiumN/AEliot – Wake Up18192020202323232424242424
NQ. HungaryN/AJoci Pápai – Az Én Apám30303029283028292928282727
NQ. PolandN/ATulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)31293128292929282829292930
NQ. FinlandN/ADarude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away27262731313131303131343533
NQ. GeorgiaN/AOto Nemsadze – Keep On Going38404040404040403939383737
NQ. MontenegroN/AD Mol – Heaven41414141414141414141414141

Check out our previous odds articles!

Nick van Lith

I'm one of the founding members of Eleven years after the start, I'm proud to say that I am now the Editor-in-Chief of this wonderful website. When I'm not doing Eurovision stuff, you should be able to find me teaching German to kids... And cheering on everything and everyone Greek, pretty much. Pame Ellada!
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