The storm has settled down, at least the ‘sandstorm’ has. Seven countries have left the competition, which means the bookies have a lot to do! Quite a few countries have obviously climbed and a couple have fallen down rapidly… Time for another update of the Eurovision odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Russia are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Sergey Lazarev does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Latvia. Carousel find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If they were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Analysis: 15 May
With seven less countries, it’s worth noting that pretty much everyone at the bottom of the scoreboard is climbing, at least slightly. Today, however, we look at those with remarkable rises. Let’s see what happened today at the Eurovision odds for the 2019 contest.
- 🇳🇱 He struggled during his second rehearsal, but he is definitely back now. The Netherlands have solidified their #1 position, something we saw happening yesterday. Coming from odds of 3/1 this weekend, the best you can now get is 13/8. That means their odds have almost halved: €8 this weekend brought you €24 for a Dutch victory, now it’s just €13. The light is working, the staging is there and Ilse DeLange can rest assured that they got things right now. EurovisionWorld also provide winning chances. They now claim The Netherlands have a 30% chance of winning, compared to 13% for #2, Sweden.
- 🇸🇲 San Marino are, on paper, the biggest climber after yesterday. In terms of winning the contest, Serhat was a total no-hoper. He probably still is, but his rise from #38 to #26 is a giant leap for the microstate. Six of the countries he left behind now are non-qualifiers, but that still leaves six more he overtook as bookmakers now think he is more hopeful of victory than those. Such countries include Romania and Israel.
- 🇮🇸 Will hate prevail? It could! It prevailed in the semifinal where Iceland managed to qualify for the Grand Final. Hatari have brought the island back to the final for the first time since 2014. They have now cracked the top five, sitting right at #5 today. Iceland are one of four countries who have shot up to the top five after live performances. The others, France, Azerbaijan and Australia, have all gone down again, with the exception of Australia, who still claim #3.
- 🇨🇿 Another winner of last night is Lake Malawi from the Czech Republic. They’re the ones who now have a bigger chance of making the top ten with the bookmakers than acts such as Norway, Spain or North Macedonia. In March, Lake Malawi were seen as a borderline qualifier, also sitting in #22 with the odds. They are now the proud #13 on the list – a score much better. Can they climb further?
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. Sweden||0||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||3||5||5||5||5||5||5||5||2||2||2||2||2|
|3. Australia||0||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||17||16||16||16||11||11||11||9||9||9||9||6||3|
|4. Russia||0||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||3||3||4||4||4|
|5. Iceland||+4||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||7||6||6||6||6||6||8||8||8||10||10||10||9|
|6. Azerbaijan||0||Chingiz – Truth||15||14||13||12||13||13||4||4||5||4||5||5||6|
|7. France||-2||Bilal Hassani – Roi||13||12||11||11||12||12||12||12||10||5||3||3||5|
|8. Italy||-1||Mahmood – Soldi||5||4||4||4||4||4||3||3||4||7||6||7||7|
|9. Switzerland||-1||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4||3||3||3||3||3||6||6||7||8||8||8||8|
|10. Malta||0||Michela – Chameleon||9||8||8||8||8||8||7||7||6||6||7||9||10|
|11. Cyprus||+1||Tamta – Replay||6||7||7||7||7||7||9||10||11||12||12||12||12|
|12. Greece||-2||Katerine Duska – Better Love||10||9||9||9||9||9||10||11||12||11||11||11||11|
|13. Czech Republic||+3||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||22||18||19||18||17||17||16||16||16||16||16||16||16|
|14. Spain||-1||Miki – La Venda||21||21||14||15||15||14||15||14||14||14||14||14||13|
|15. Serbia||+5||Nevena Božović – Kruna||37||32||29||26||27||26||26||26||23||23||22||20||20|
|16. Norway||-1||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||8||10||10||10||10||10||13||13||13||15||15||15||15|
|17. Estonia||+9||Victor Crone – Storm||24||24||24||24||24||24||24||24||25||27||26||26||26|
|18. North Macedonia||-4||Tamara Todevska – Proud||20||20||17||17||18||18||14||15||15||13||13||13||14|
|19. Slovenia||-2||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||14||13||15||14||16||16||17||17||17||17||17||17||17|
|20. Denmark||-2||Leonora – Love Is Forever||16||17||21||21||21||20||19||19||19||18||18||18||18|
|21. Belarus||+10||ZENA – Like It||32||36||36||33||34||35||35||35||35||34||33||32||31|
|22. United Kingdom||0||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||23||23||22||22||23||22||22||21||21||20||20||21||22|
|23. Armenia||-2||Srbuk – Walking Out||12||15||18||19||19||19||20||20||20||21||21||22||21|
|24. Albania||-1||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||36||27||23||23||22||21||21||22||22||22||23||23||23|
|25. Israel||0||Kobi Marimi – Home||19||25||25||25||25||25||25||25||26||25||25||25||25|
|26. San Marino||+12||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||39||37||38||38||38||39||39||38||38||37||37||38||38|
|27. Austria||+7||Paenda – Limits||28||34||34||36||35||34||33||33||32||33||31||33||34|
|29. Romania||+4||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||29||31||33||34||33||33||32||32||33||32||32||31||32|
|28. Germany||-1||S!sters – Sister||25||22||26||27||26||27||27||27||27||26||27||28||28|
|30. Ireland||-1||Sarah McTernan – 22||26||28||28||30||30||28||30||31||30||30||30||30||29|
|31. Croatia||+4||Roko – The Dream||35||35||32||32||32||32||34||34||34||35||35||34||35|
|32. Moldova||+4||Anna Odobescu – Stay||34||38||37||37||37||36||36||37||36||36||36||36||36|
|33. Lithuania||+6||Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions||33||33||35||35||36||37||37||36||37||38||39||39||39|
|34. Latvia||+6||Carousel – That Night||40||39||39||39||39||38||38||39||40||40||40||40||40|
|NQ. Portugal||N/A||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||11||11||12||13||14||15||18||18||18||19||19||19||19|
|NQ. Belgium||N/A||Eliot – Wake Up||18||19||20||20||20||23||23||23||24||24||24||24||24|
|NQ. Hungary||N/A||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||30||30||30||29||28||30||28||29||29||28||28||27||27|
|NQ. Poland||N/A||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||31||29||31||28||29||29||29||28||28||29||29||29||30|
|NQ. Finland||N/A||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||27||26||27||31||31||31||31||30||31||31||34||35||33|
|NQ. Georgia||N/A||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||38||40||40||40||40||40||40||40||39||39||38||37||37|
|NQ. Montenegro||N/A||D Mol – Heaven||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41|