We now have a complete final! After last night’s second semifinal, 26 acts have booked their spot in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest. The running order came out a few hours after the announcement and bookmakers responded as you’d expect them to. Here’s the latest XTRA Odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Sweden are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if John Lundvik does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Germany. S!sters find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If S!sters were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Analysis: 17 May (09:00 CET)
Only 26 countries remain in competition to win the Eurovision Song Contest this year. Interestingly, many of last night’s eliminees weren’t all that high with the bookmakers. The highest ranked non-qualifier was #23: Armenia. Let’s see how the rest has been impacted!
- 🇨🇭 When they go low, they go so low – but that has come to an end now. Switzerland were slowly dropping down the ranks, nearly falling out of the top ten since the start of rehearsals. However, a stellar performance last night and a #24 in the running order have helped Luca Hänni back up. He is back to #4 now and rapidly closing in on the top three at the moment. Can “She Got Me” pick up enough momentum to be a serious threat?
- 🇷🇺 Russia are not doing well at all. Last night, before Sergey Lazarev hit the stage in Tel Aviv, he was at odds of 6/1 in a lot of places. An early running order and a perhaps surprisingly doubtful reaction to last nigt’s performance have thrown him down to #7 on the bookmaker rankings. There are now odds you can get at 20/1. Is belief in a second Russian victory fading away? It seems so.
- 🇳🇱 As we mentioned last time around, there’s a percentage of your chance of winning the Eurovision Song Contest. In a week’s time, The Netherlands have doubled their shot at winning with Duncan Laurence: From 21% to 42% at the moment. His odds have shortened to below Evens, which means you can’t even double your money anymore for a Dutch victory tomorrow evening. Nearest chasers Australia are at 6/1 – a long way behind “Arcade’.
- 🇮🇸 A rush of momentum is proving to be a temporary feat. Only Australia are currently keeping it up, but the other big movers currently are not. Iceland, who re-entered the top five on Tuesday night, have dropped back down to #8, seeing qualifiers from the second semi come back up.
- 🇫🇷 In highly similar fashion, we see France, whose impressive staging saw them climb to a top three spot. Bilal Hassani is now right behind Iceland in #9. Both entries still look better than they did before heading to Tel Aviv, but the short rush of momentum is causing them to slowly fall back down again.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. Australia||+1||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||17||16||16||11||11||9||9||9||9||6||3||3|
|3. Sweden||-1||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||3||5||5||5||5||5||2||2||2||2||2||2|
|4. Switzerland||+5||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4||3||3||3||6||6||7||8||8||8||8||9|
|5. Azerbaijan||+1||Chingiz – Truth||15||13||12||13||4||4||5||4||5||5||6||6|
|6. Italy||+2||Mahmood – Soldi||5||4||4||4||3||3||4||7||6||7||7||8|
|7. Russia||-3||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||2||2||2||2||2||2||3||3||4||4||4||4|
|8. Iceland||-3||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||7||6||6||6||8||8||8||10||10||10||9||5|
|9. France||-2||Bilal Hassani – Roi||13||11||11||12||12||12||10||5||3||3||5||7|
|10. Norway||+6||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||8||10||10||10||13||13||13||15||15||15||15||16|
|11. Malta||-1||Michela – Chameleon||9||8||8||8||7||7||6||6||7||9||10||10|
|12. Spain||+2||Miki – La Venda||21||14||15||15||15||14||14||14||14||14||13||14|
|13. Cyprus||-2||Tamta – Replay||6||7||7||7||9||10||11||12||12||12||12||11|
|14. North Macedonia||+4||Tamara Todevska – Proud||20||17||17||18||14||15||15||13||13||13||14||18|
|15. Greece||-3||Katerine Duska – Better Love||10||9||9||9||10||11||12||11||11||11||11||12|
|16. Czech Republic||-3||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||22||19||18||17||16||16||16||16||16||16||16||13|
|17. Denmark||+3||Leonora – Love Is Forever||16||21||21||21||19||19||19||18||18||18||18||20|
|18. Serbia||-3||Nevena Božović – Kruna||37||29||26||27||26||26||23||23||22||20||20||15|
|19. Slovenia||0||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||14||15||14||16||17||17||17||17||17||17||17||19|
|20. Estonia||-3||Victor Crone – Storm||24||24||24||24||24||24||25||27||26||26||26||17|
|21. United Kingdom||+1||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||23||22||22||23||22||21||21||20||20||21||22||22|
|22. Belarus||-1||ZENA – Like It||32||36||33||34||35||35||35||34||33||32||31||21|
|23. Albania||+1||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||36||23||23||22||21||22||22||22||23||23||23||24|
|24. San Marino||+2||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||39||38||38||38||39||38||38||37||37||38||38||26|
|25. Israel||0||Kobi Marimi – Home||19||25||25||25||25||25||26||25||25||25||25||25|
|26. Germany||+3||S!sters – Sister||25||26||27||26||27||27||27||26||27||28||28||29|
|NQ. Armenia||N/A||Srbuk – Walking Out||12||18||19||19||20||20||20||21||21||22||21||23|
|NQ. Austria||N/A||Paenda – Limits||28||34||36||35||33||33||32||33||31||33||34||27|
|NQ. Romania||N/A||Ester Peony – On A Sunday||29||33||34||33||32||32||33||32||32||31||32||28|
|NQ. Ireland||N/A||Sarah McTernan – 22||26||28||30||30||30||31||30||30||30||30||29||30|
|NQ. Croatia||N/A||Roko – The Dream||35||32||32||32||34||34||34||35||35||34||35||31|
|NQ. Moldova||N/A||Anna Odobescu – Stay||34||37||37||37||36||37||36||36||36||36||36||32|
|NQ. Lithuania||N/A||Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions||33||35||35||36||37||36||37||38||39||39||39||33|
|NQ. Latvia||N/A||Carousel – That Night||40||39||39||39||38||39||40||40||40||40||40||34|
|NQ. Portugal||N/A||Conan Osíris – Telemóveis||11||12||13||14||18||18||18||19||19||19||19||N/A|
|NQ. Belgium||N/A||Eliot – Wake Up||18||20||20||20||23||23||24||24||24||24||24||N/A|
|NQ. Hungary||N/A||Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám||30||30||29||28||28||29||29||28||28||27||27||N/A|
|NQ. Poland||N/A||Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)||31||31||28||29||29||28||28||29||29||29||30||N/A|
|NQ. Finland||N/A||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away||27||27||31||31||31||30||31||31||34||35||33||N/A|
|NQ. Georgia||N/A||Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going||38||40||40||40||40||40||39||39||38||37||37||N/A|
|NQ. Montenegro||N/A||D Mol – Heaven||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||41||N/A|