XTRA Odds: Switzerland resurges as the Netherlands continue to shorten

We now have a complete final! After last night’s second semifinal, 26 acts have booked their spot in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest. The running order came out a few hours after the announcement and bookmakers responded as you’d expect them to. Here’s the latest XTRA Odds!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Sweden are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if John Lundvik does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Germany. S!sters find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If S!sters were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Analysis: 17 May (09:00 CET)

Only 26 countries remain in competition to win the Eurovision Song Contest this year. Interestingly, many of last night’s eliminees weren’t all that high with the bookmakers. The highest ranked non-qualifier was #23: Armenia. Let’s see how the rest has been impacted!

• 🇨🇭 When they go low, they go so low – but that has come to an end now. Switzerland were slowly dropping down the ranks, nearly falling out of the top ten since the start of rehearsals. However, a stellar performance last night and a #24 in the running order have helped Luca Hänni back up. He is back to #4 now and rapidly closing in on the top three at the moment. Can “She Got Me” pick up enough momentum to be a serious threat?
• 🇷🇺 Russia are not doing well at all. Last night, before Sergey Lazarev hit the stage in Tel Aviv, he was at odds of 6/1 in a lot of places. An early running order and a perhaps surprisingly doubtful reaction to last nigt’s performance have thrown him down to #7 on the bookmaker rankings. There are now odds you can get at 20/1. Is belief in a second Russian victory fading away? It seems so.
• 🇳🇱 As we mentioned last time around, there’s a percentage of your chance of winning the Eurovision Song Contest. In a week’s time, The Netherlands have doubled their shot at winning with Duncan Laurence: From 21% to 42% at the moment. His odds have shortened to below Evens, which means you can’t even double your money anymore for a Dutch victory tomorrow evening. Nearest chasers Australia are at 6/1 – a long way behind “Arcade’.
• 🇮🇸 A rush of momentum is proving to be a temporary feat. Only Australia are currently keeping it up, but the other big movers currently are not. Iceland, who re-entered the top five on Tuesday night, have dropped back down to #8, seeing qualifiers from the second semi come back up.
• 🇫🇷 In highly similar fashion, we see France, whose impressive staging saw them climb to a top three spot. Bilal Hassani is now right behind Iceland in #9. Both entries still look better than they did before heading to Tel Aviv, but the short rush of momentum is causing them to slowly fall back down again.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

Country	Change	Entry	20/04	03/05	04/05	05/05	07/05	09/05	10/05	11/05	12/05	13/05	14/05	15/05
1. The Netherlands	0	Duncan Laurence – Arcade	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2. Australia	+1	Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity	17	16	16	11	11	9	9	9	9	6	3	3
3. Sweden	-1	John Lundvik – Too Late For Love	3	5	5	5	5	5	2	2	2	2	2	2
4. Switzerland	+5	Luca Hänni – She Got Me	4	3	3	3	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	9
5. Azerbaijan	+1	Chingiz – Truth	15	13	12	13	4	4	5	4	5	5	6	6
6. Italy	+2	Mahmood – Soldi	5	4	4	4	3	3	4	7	6	7	7	8
7. Russia	-3	Sergey Lazarev – Scream	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4
8. Iceland	-3	Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra	7	6	6	6	8	8	8	10	10	10	9	5
9. France	-2	Bilal Hassani – Roi	13	11	11	12	12	12	10	5	3	3	5	7
10. Norway	+6	KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky	8	10	10	10	13	13	13	15	15	15	15	16
11. Malta	-1	Michela – Chameleon	9	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	7	9	10	10
12. Spain	+2	Miki – La Venda	21	14	15	15	15	14	14	14	14	14	13	14
13. Cyprus	-2	Tamta – Replay	6	7	7	7	9	10	11	12	12	12	12	11
14. North Macedonia	+4	Tamara Todevska – Proud	20	17	17	18	14	15	15	13	13	13	14	18
15. Greece	-3	Katerine Duska – Better Love	10	9	9	9	10	11	12	11	11	11	11	12
16. Czech Republic	-3	Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend	22	19	18	17	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	13
17. Denmark	+3	Leonora – Love Is Forever	16	21	21	21	19	19	19	18	18	18	18	20
18. Serbia	-3	Nevena Božović – Kruna	37	29	26	27	26	26	23	23	22	20	20	15
19. Slovenia	0	Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi	14	15	14	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	19
20. Estonia	-3	Victor Crone – Storm	24	24	24	24	24	24	25	27	26	26	26	17
21. United Kingdom	+1	Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us	23	22	22	23	22	21	21	20	20	21	22	22
22. Belarus	-1	ZENA – Like It	32	36	33	34	35	35	35	34	33	32	31	21
23. Albania	+1	Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës	36	23	23	22	21	22	22	22	23	23	23	24
24. San Marino	+2	Serhat – Say Na Na Na	39	38	38	38	39	38	38	37	37	38	38	26
25. Israel	0	Kobi Marimi – Home	19	25	25	25	25	25	26	25	25	25	25	25
26. Germany	+3	S!sters – Sister	25	26	27	26	27	27	27	26	27	28	28	29
NQ. Armenia	N/A	Srbuk – Walking Out	12	18	19	19	20	20	20	21	21	22	21	23
NQ. Austria	N/A	Paenda – Limits	28	34	36	35	33	33	32	33	31	33	34	27
NQ. Romania	N/A	Ester Peony – On A Sunday	29	33	34	33	32	32	33	32	32	31	32	28
NQ. Ireland	N/A	Sarah McTernan – 22	26	28	30	30	30	31	30	30	30	30	29	30
NQ. Croatia	N/A	Roko – The Dream	35	32	32	32	34	34	34	35	35	34	35	31
NQ. Moldova	N/A	Anna Odobescu – Stay	34	37	37	37	36	37	36	36	36	36	36	32
NQ. Lithuania	N/A	Jurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions	33	35	35	36	37	36	37	38	39	39	39	33
NQ. Latvia	N/A	Carousel – That Night	40	39	39	39	38	39	40	40	40	40	40	34
NQ. Portugal	N/A	Conan Osíris – Telemóveis	11	12	13	14	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	N/A
NQ. Belgium	N/A	Eliot – Wake Up	18	20	20	20	23	23	24	24	24	24	24	N/A
NQ. Hungary	N/A	Joci Pápai – Az Én Apám	30	30	29	28	28	29	29	28	28	27	27	N/A
NQ. Poland	N/A	Tulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)	31	31	28	29	29	28	28	29	29	29	30	N/A
NQ. Finland	N/A	Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away	27	27	31	31	31	30	31	31	34	35	33	N/A
NQ. Georgia	N/A	Oto Nemsadze – Keep On Going	38	40	40	40	40	40	39	39	38	37	37	N/A
NQ. Montenegro	N/A	D Mol – Heaven	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	N/A

Check out our previous odds articles!

• 20 March
• 13 April
• 3 May
• 4 May
• 5 May
• 6 May
• 7 May
• 9 May
• 10 May
• 11 May
• 12 May
• 13 May
• 14 May
• 15 May