Betting Odds

XTRA Odds: Switzerland resurges as the Netherlands continue to shorten

We now have a complete final! After last night’s second semifinal, 26 acts have booked their spot in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest. The running order came out a few hours after the announcement and bookmakers responded as you’d expect them to. Here’s the latest XTRA Odds!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Sweden are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if John Lundvik does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Germany. S!sters find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If S!sters were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Analysis: 17 May (09:00 CET)

Only 26 countries remain in competition to win the Eurovision Song Contest this year. Interestingly, many of last night’s eliminees weren’t all that high with the bookmakers. The highest ranked non-qualifier was #23: Armenia. Let’s see how the rest has been impacted!

  • 🇨🇭 When they go low, they go so low – but that has come to an end now. Switzerland were slowly dropping down the ranks, nearly falling out of the top ten since the start of rehearsals. However, a stellar performance last night and a #24 in the running order have helped Luca Hänni back up. He is back to #4 now and rapidly closing in on the top three at the moment. Can “She Got Me” pick up enough momentum to be a serious threat?
  • 🇷🇺 Russia are not doing well at all. Last night, before Sergey Lazarev hit the stage in Tel Aviv, he was at odds of 6/1 in a lot of places. An early running order and a perhaps surprisingly doubtful reaction to last nigt’s performance have thrown him down to #7 on the bookmaker rankings. There are now odds you can get at 20/1. Is belief in a second Russian victory fading away? It seems so.
  • 🇳🇱 As we mentioned last time around, there’s a percentage of your chance of winning the Eurovision Song Contest. In a week’s time, The Netherlands have doubled their shot at winning with Duncan Laurence: From 21% to 42% at the moment. His odds have shortened to below Evens, which means you can’t even double your money anymore for a Dutch victory tomorrow evening. Nearest chasers Australia are at 6/1 – a long way behind “Arcade’.
  • 🇮🇸 A rush of momentum is proving to be a temporary feat. Only Australia are currently keeping it up, but the other big movers currently are not. Iceland, who re-entered the top five on Tuesday night, have dropped back down to #8, seeing qualifiers from the second semi come back up.
  • 🇫🇷 In highly similar fashion, we see France, whose impressive staging saw them climb to a top three spot. Bilal Hassani is now right behind Iceland in #9. Both entries still look better than they did before heading to Tel Aviv, but the short rush of momentum is causing them to slowly fall back down again.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

1. The Netherlands0Duncan Laurence – Arcade111111111111
2. Australia+1Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity17161611119999633
3. Sweden-1John Lundvik – Too Late For Love355555222222
4. Switzerland+5Luca Hänni – She Got Me433366788889
5. Azerbaijan+1Chingiz – Truth1513121344545566
6. Italy+2Mahmood – Soldi544433476778
7. Russia-3Sergey Lazarev – Scream222222334444
8. Iceland-3Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra766688810101095
9. France-2Bilal Hassani – Roi1311111212121053357
10. Norway+6KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky81010101313131515151516
11. Malta-1Michela – Chameleon98887766791010
12. Spain+2Miki – La Venda211415151514141414141314
13. Cyprus-2Tamta – Replay6777910111212121211
14. North Macedonia+4Tamara Todevska – Proud201717181415151313131418
15. Greece-3Katerine Duska – Better Love109991011121111111112
16. Czech Republic-3Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend221918171616161616161613
17. Denmark+3Leonora – Love Is Forever162121211919191818181820
18. Serbia-3Nevena Božović – Kruna372926272626232322202015
19. Slovenia0Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi141514161717171717171719
20. Estonia-3Victor Crone – Storm242424242424252726262617
21. United Kingdom+1Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us232222232221212020212222
22. Belarus-1ZENA – Like It323633343535353433323121
23. Albania+1Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës362323222122222223232324
24. San Marino+2Serhat – Say Na Na Na393838383938383737383826
25. Israel0Kobi Marimi – Home192525252525262525252525
26. Germany+3S!sters – Sister252627262727272627282829
NQ. ArmeniaN/ASrbuk – Walking Out121819192020202121222123
NQ. AustriaN/APaenda – Limits283436353333323331333427
NQ. RomaniaN/AEster Peony – On A Sunday293334333232333232313228
NQ. IrelandN/ASarah McTernan – 22262830303031303030302930
NQ. CroatiaN/ARoko – The Dream353232323434343535343531
NQ. MoldovaN/AAnna Odobescu – Stay343737373637363636363632
NQ. LithuaniaN/AJurij Veklenko – Run With The Lions333535363736373839393933
NQ. LatviaN/ACarousel – That Night403939393839404040404034
NQ. PortugalN/AConan Osíris – Telemóveis1112131418181819191919N/A
NQ. BelgiumN/AEliot – Wake Up1820202023232424242424N/A
NQ. HungaryN/AJoci Pápai – Az Én Apám3030292828292928282727N/A
NQ. PolandN/ATulia – Pali Się (Fire Of Love)3131282929282829292930N/A
NQ. FinlandN/ADarude ft. Sebastian Rejman – Look Away2727313131303131343533N/A
NQ. GeorgiaN/AOto Nemsadze – Keep On Going3840404040403939383737N/A
NQ. MontenegroN/AD Mol – Heaven4141414141414141414141N/A

Check out our previous odds articles!

Nick van Lith

I'm one of the founding members of Eleven years after the start, I'm proud to say that I am now the Editor-in-Chief of this wonderful website. When I'm not doing Eurovision stuff, you should be able to find me teaching German to kids... And cheering on everything and everyone Greek, pretty much. Pame Ellada!
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