The day is here. This is the day we have all been waiting for, the Christmas in May, the celebration of everything we love: It is the night of the Eurovision Song Contest! All eyes will focus on the EXPO Tel Aviv tonight to see who will succeed Netta Barzilai as the winner of Eurovision. The bookies have a clear top three. Let’s read all about it!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Sweden are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if John Lundvik does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Germany. S!sters find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If S!sters were to win Eurovision 2019, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Montenegro and North Macedonia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Analysis: 18 May
We all know, it’s the big day. The top three are currently far apart from the rest, so it’s safe to say we’ll be heading into tonight’s show with the standings we now have. Who’s topping the lot and who’s flopping hard? Let’s have a look at the current standings with bookmakers for the current Eurovision odds.
- It is no surprise and a statement we all know: The Netherlands are heading to the EXPO Tel Aviv as the clear favourites for tonight. Duncan Laurence has odds of 8/11 now, which means you would far less than double your money on a Dutch victory. In terms of chances, EurovisionWorld have put him on 46%. Numbers like these have in the past only been seen for the likes of Alexander Rybak and Loreen. Are they getting going to win again, last having done so in 1975 with Teach-In? Time will tell.
- Australia could be heading for their first ever victory. Kate Miller-Heidke would become the first winner since Conchita Wurst to have been outside the bookies’ top fifteen prior to rehearsals. Back then, the entire top two came from far back, with The Common Linnets at #29 finishing an eventual second place. The inventive staging for “Zero Gravity” has now given them 11% chance of winning the contest tonight. Can a #25 spot in the running order push them forward?
- A strong semifinal performance has helped Switzerland back up. Their momentum faded away after the first rehearsals, falling as far down as #9, but it’s back and better than ever. Luca Hänni is now the third favourite to win the Eurovision Song Contest. If he makes it to third place, it would be their first podium finish since Annie Cotton in 1993. Their last victory dates back to 1988 with the now world famous Céline Dion. With both girls being Canadian, Luca would be the first Swiss-born person to finish on the podium since Arlette Zola in 1982. Even more staggering is the fact that he would be the first man ever to finish top three for Switzerland. Every top three result for them so far has been achieved by women.
- It’s become a repeated comment in this bit, but Russia are looking out of contention. Their #5 slot in the running order won’t help them and they’re now as far down as ninth with the bookies, by far their lowest this year. They’re behind acts like KEiiNO from Norway, who had severe issues in their jury performance. Sergey Lazarev’s hopes of winning seem dashed, but who knows what a strong performance tonight can do for “Scream”.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first Eurovision odds article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. The Netherlands||0||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. Australia||0||Kate Miller-Heidke – Zero Gravity||17||16||16||11||11||9||9||9||9||6||3||3||2|
|3. Switzerland||+1||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4||3||3||3||6||6||7||8||8||8||8||9||4|
|4. Sweden||-1||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||3||5||5||5||5||5||2||2||2||2||2||2||3|
|5. Italy||+1||Mahmood – Soldi||5||4||4||4||3||3||4||7||6||7||7||8||6|
|6. Iceland||+2||Hatari – Hatrið Mun Sigra||7||6||6||6||8||8||8||10||10||10||9||5||8|
|7. Azerbaijan||-2||Chingiz – Truth||15||13||12||13||4||4||5||4||5||5||6||6||5|
|8. Norway||+2||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||8||10||10||10||13||13||13||15||15||15||15||16||10|
|9. Russia||-2||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||2||2||2||2||2||2||3||3||4||4||4||4||7|
|10. France||-1||Bilal Hassani – Roi||13||11||11||12||12||12||10||5||3||3||5||7||9|
|11. Malta||0||Michela – Chameleon||9||8||8||8||7||7||6||6||7||9||10||10||11|
|12. Denmark||+5||Leonora – Love Is Forever||16||21||21||21||19||19||19||18||18||18||18||20||17|
|13. Spain||-1||Miki – La Venda||21||14||15||15||15||14||14||14||14||14||13||14||12|
|14. Cyprus||-1||Tamta – Replay||6||7||7||7||9||10||11||12||12||12||12||11||13|
|15. Greece||0||Katerine Duska – Better Love||10||9||9||9||10||11||12||11||11||11||11||12||15|
|16. North Macedonia||-2||Tamara Todevska – Proud||20||17||17||18||14||15||15||13||13||13||14||18||14|
|17. Czech Republic||-1||Lake Malawi – Friend of a Friend||22||19||18||17||16||16||16||16||16||16||16||13||16|
|18. Serbia||0||Nevena Božović – Kruna||37||29||26||27||26||26||23||23||22||20||20||15||18|
|19. United Kingdom||+2||Michael Rice – Bigger Than Us||23||22||22||23||22||21||21||20||20||21||22||22||21|
|20. Slovenia||0||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||14||15||14||16||17||17||17||17||17||17||17||19||20|
|21. Estonia||-2||Victor Crone – Storm||24||24||24||24||24||24||25||27||26||26||26||17||19|
|22. Belarus||0||ZENA – Like It||32||36||33||34||35||35||35||34||33||32||31||21||22|
|23. Albania||0||Jonida Maliqi – Ktheju Tokës||36||23||23||22||21||22||22||22||23||23||23||24||23|
|24. Israel||+1||Kobi Marimi – Home||19||25||25||25||25||25||26||25||25||25||25||25||25|
|25. San Marino||-1||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||39||38||38||38||39||38||38||37||37||38||38||26||24|
|26. Germany||0||S!sters – Sister||25||26||27||26||27||27||27||26||27||28||28||29||26|