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Eurovision 2019: the semi-finals with the old systems

This Sunday, we published the results of the 2019 grand final with the old voting system. Now, we give you the results of the semi-finals : will the qualifiers change?

Once again, we have used the 2009-2012 system, in which the common top 10 is determined by adding the points from a country’s televote and from his jury. However, jury votes were re-calculated with the method used in 2009 (and up to 2017). This also allow us to calculate the full jury scores, and thus to simulate the voting as it would have been with the system used in 2016 and 2017. With a very small difference between last qualifier and first non-qualifier in each semi, the slightest changes in the jury votes could be enough to change the situation.

First Semi-Final

First, let’s discover the results with the 2009 system :

RankCountryScore
1st🇨🇿 Czech Republic140
2nd🇦🇺 Australia134
3rd🇮🇸 Iceland112
4th🇪🇪 Estonia104
5th🇬🇷 Greece93
6th🇸🇮 Slovenia75
7th🇷🇸 Serbia74
8th🇸🇲 San Marino72
9th🇨🇾 Cyprus64
10th🇵🇱 Poland62
11th🇧🇾 Belarus59
12th🇭🇺 Hungary51
13th🇲🇪 Montenegro32
14th🇬🇪 Georgia29
15th🇵🇹 Portugal28
16th🇧🇪 Belgium24
17th🇫🇮 Finland8

As you can see, the main difference is that, with the old system, Poland would qualify over Belarus. Hardly a surprise when only two points separated them in the current system. And while Finland is still last, they only get points from one contry : 8 points from Estonia.

As for the results from the old jury, they would not actually change the qualifiers, as you can see below. Indeed, the gap between Belarus and Poland would actually be widened by the old jury

Difference between 2016/17 and 2018/19 jury vote systems

Results with televote

RankCountryOld JuryTelevoteTotal
1st🇦🇺 Australia 117140257
2nd🇨🇿 Czech Republic 16585250
3rd🇮🇸 Iceland53151204
4th🇪🇪 Estonia64133197
5th🇬🇷 Greece13754191
6th🇸🇮 Slovenia7093163
7th🇷🇸 Serbia9465159
8th🇨🇾 Cyprus 9654150
9th🇸🇲 San Marino 22124146
10th🇧🇾 Belarus 8344127
11th🇵🇱 Poland 5660116
12th🇭🇺 Hungary7532107
13th🇧🇪 Belgium 482068
14th🇬🇪 Georgia263359
15th🇲🇪 Montenegro 371552
16th🇵🇹 Portugal 74350
17th🇫🇮 Finland101424

Second Semi-Final

Once again, let’s first focus on the results with the 2009 system!

RankCountryScore
1st🇳🇱 The Netherlands153
2nd🇲🇰 North Macedonia126
3rd🇸🇪 Sweden126
4th🇦🇿 Azerbaijan124
5th🇨🇭 Switzerland122
6th🇳🇴 Norway112
7th🇷🇺 Russia109
8th🇲🇹 Malta76
9th🇦🇱 Albania49
10th🇱🇹 Lithuania41
11th🇷🇴 Romania36
12th🇩🇰 Denmark34
13th🇲🇩 Moldova30
14th🇦🇲 Armenia25
15th🇱🇻 Latvia24
16th🇭🇷 Croatia23
17th🇦🇹 Austria6
18th🇮🇪 Ireland2

Once again, the qualifiers would be different! And not only would Lithuania, the country that came 11th in the actual results (and 1 point away from the 10th), qualify, but Denmark (who actually came 10th) would slip down to the 12th place, behind Romania.

The tie between Sweden and North Macedonia for the second place was broken with the tie-breaking rule of giving precedence to the country who got points from the most countries : every country gave points to North Macedonia while Russia, Moldova and Italy did not give any points to Sweden.

As for the results with the old jury only, they do change the qualifiers, and also have Denmark as 12th. Indeed, this time, the old jury wouldn’t have widened the gap, or at least they would have, but after inverting it (Denmark losing 10 jury points).

Difference between 2016/17 and 2018/19 jury vote systems

Results with the televote:

RankCountryOld JuryTelevoteTotal
1st🇳🇱 The Netherlands143140283
2nd🇲🇰 North Macedonia15784241
3rd🇸🇪 Sweden14888236
4th🇨🇭 Switzerland 95137232
5th 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan 104121225
6th🇷🇺 Russia 93124217
7th 🇳🇴 Norway 36170206
8th🇲🇹 Malta10950159
9th🇦🇱 Albania415899
10th🇱🇹 Lithuania177794
11th🇲🇩 Moldova 592786
12th🇩🇰 Denmark434184
13th🇷🇴 Romania 512475
14th🇭🇷 Croatia 283866
15th🇦🇲 Armenia 282351
16th🇱🇻 Latvia 321345
17th🇦🇹 Austria22022
18th🇮🇪 Ireland12315

NOTE: As you may know, at least two jurors this year input their ranking in the wrong order during the semi-finals (Lina Hedlund from Sweden and Jitka Zelenkova from the Czech Republic), putting their last place in first place, their second-to-last in 2nd place, etc. When calculating the results above, we did not put their rankings “in the right order” : indeed, the official results have never been changed after a juror discovered their mistake, and our goal is to show the alternate official results as they would have appeared 10 years or 2 years ago.

What do you think of these alternate scores? In this situation, whic system do you prefer? And which one do you think is the fairest? Tell us more in the comments below, or on social media at @escxtra !

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