Eurovision Prediction

🇦🇱 YOU have predicted Elvana Gjata to win tonight’s Eurovision national final in Albania!

Me Tana got 75% of the votes!

Over the last past two weeks, you have been submitting your predictions for the first round of Eurovision Prediction 2020. For this round, your task was to predict the winner of Festivali i Këngës in Albania. Now, let’s take a look at who you collectively expect to win the Albanian ticket to Rotterdam!

Here at ESCXTRA, we always want to give you…XTRA! So this year, Eurovision Prediction will be bringing the receipts, neatly organised and presented ahead of each national final. So let’s take a trip down memory lane (from the past two weeks, really) and look at what has shaped our predictions…

During this first round of Eurovision Prediction 2020, 225 of you have predicted who you think will take victory in Albania. Without further ado, here are the entries that YOU have predicted to win in order of frequency, from most to least:

RankArtistSongNumber of predictionsPercentage
1Elvana Gjata“Me tana”16975.11%
2Arilena Ara“Shaj”3716.44%
3Valon Shehu“Kutia e Pandorës”52.22%
4Era Rusi“Eja mere”41.78%
5Kamela Islamaj“Më ngjyros”20.89%
5Kanita Suma“Ankth”20.89%
7Aldo Bardhi“Melodi”10.44%
7Genc Tukiçi and Nadia Tukiçi“Ju flet Tirana”10.44%
7Albërie Hadërgjonaj“Ku ta gjej dikë ta dua”10.44%
7Olta Boka“Botë për dy”10.44%
7Gena“Shqiponja e lirë”10.44%
7Sara Bajraktari “Ajër”10.44%

YouTube dominance

From the moment the names of the finalists were announced, Elvana Gjata was instantly the favourite to win Festivali i Këngës 58. This was further confirmed the moment the 20 entries dropped when Elvana rocketed ahead instantly. She even broke the record for the most-viewed video on RTSH’s YouTube channel, dethroning the iconic New Year’s baklava tutorial and Eneda Tarifa’s music video for “Fairytale” from 2016.

Here are the 20 finalists, ranked by YouTube, with the non-qualifiers crossed out:

  1. Elvana Gjata – Me tana – 3,200,000
  2. Arilena Ara – Shaj – 583,000
  3. Albërie Hadërgjonaj – Ku ta gjej dikë ta dua – 517,000
  4. Eli Fara & Stresi – Bohem – 335,000
  5. Kanita Suma – Ankth – 257,000
  6. Era Rusi – Eja mera – 210,000
  7. Robert Berisha – Ajo nuk është unë – 151,000
  8. Gena – Shqiponja e Lirë – 108,000
  9. Kastro Zizo – Asaj – 104,000
  10. Tiri Gjoci – Me gotën bosh – 87,000
  11. Devis Xherahu – Bisedoj me serenatën – 74,000
  12. Sara Bajraktari – Ajër – 73,000
  13. Wendi Mancaku – 64,000
  14. Olta Boka – Botë për dy – 59,000
  15. Valon Sheku – Kutia e Pandorës – 54,000
  16. Kamela Islamaj – Më ngjyros – 52,000
  17. Aldo Bardhi – Melodi 48,000
  18. Nadia and Genc Tukiçi – Ju flet Tirana – 45,000
  19. Renis Gjoka – Loja – 33,000
  20. Bojken Lako – Malaseen – 31,000

Although only a handful of the songs are available on Spotify, it should also be noted that Me Tana had accumulated over 200,000 streams before the live performance took place.

Note: Without the televote, there is no way of gauging how well song engagement will be reflected in the results. But the loss of Eli Fara & Stresi and Kanita proves that anything can happen.

Importance of big names and pre-show hype in FiK

As we discussed on our prediction video, in Festivali i Këngës, big names tend to dominate the scoreboard. Of course, young up-and-comers like Kejsi Tola and Olta Boka have won the festival, and the likes of Lidia Lufi and Inis Niziri have scored highly, but the winners circle mostly comprises of big stars. Looking at recent winners, Elhaida, Eneda, Lindita, Eugent and Jonida were all both stars in Albania prior to the festival and were the favourites to win their respective editions.

From this, it is understandable why so many people think this national final is a done-deal (see below). However, the unexplored component is the international jury, who make up the majority of the deciding jury in this edition. With this in mind, they might come out with a shock win. It is important to note that Arilena is a very strong and passionate performer and one that has the technical prowess that often appeals to Eurovision juries. In addition, Gena and Valon are both bringing very experience, prestige and high-impact performances that could well appeal to a jury as much as Me Tana’s slick staging.

We will publish the official round one results shortly the conclusion of the national final. Stay tuned to see how you fare against the rest of the competition!

So, are you in the majority that expects Elvana Gjata to take victory tonight? Last year, our Eurovision Prediction 2019 players collectively predicted 16 out of 29 national final winners correctly. In 2018, your record was 19 out of 30. How will you, our Eurovision Prediction 2020 players, fare this year?

ABOUT EUROVISION PREDICTION 2020

OFFICIAL RULES

HISTORY OF EUROVISION PREDICTION

Costa Christou

Ever since I saw Helena Paparizou's triumph at Eurovision in 2005 (at the tender age of 6), I have been crazy about Eurovision. From the regional native language bops and shrieky female-led balladry to the sophisticated avant garde pop songs and chart-friendly EDM, I love everything about this cultural phenomenon. I'm currently studying a Bachelor of Science in Politics & International Relations at the University of Exeter.

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