Betting Odds

🇪🇺 XTRA Odds: Barbara Pravi now #2, just behind Destiny

Barbara Pravi enters the race for #1 with Stefania almost entering the top ten after staging rumours

It’s time for XTRA Odds – our weekly look at the betting odds with the bookmakers! Once again, not a whole lot has changed to upset the odds. Just like last week, though, we see quite a few changes – even in the top five.

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Måneskin does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Anxhela Peristeri finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 250/1. If Anxhela were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €250 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 11 April

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. This week, there definitely are some more changes as we see two countries entering the top ten. Who’s hot and… who’s not?

  • 🇫🇷 The two-horse race at the top of the ranking has become a three horse race now! France have overtaken Switzerland and now find themselves in the #2 spot. This is not down to Switzerland losing ground, but moreso with France’s odds shortening a lot in the past week. The top three of Destiny, Barbara Pravi and Gjon’s Tears is too close to call. A possible explanation for this shift is the live performances of Voilà Barbara Pravi delivered on TV, in France and Spain, this past week, as well as the acoustic version she released: The magic is still there. Can France do the double of JESC and ESC?
  • 🇬🇷 Also clearly on the rise is Greece. They’ve gained two spots, climbing from #13 to #11. In Stefania’s case, it’s not hard to understand where the change is coming from. Dutch media suggested the Greek performance for Rotterdam will include something we’ve never seen on a Eurovision stage before, hyping Last Dance ahead of May. Her odds are still shortening, meaning the top ten may be on the horizon for next week.
  • 🇳🇱 The biggest climb this week can be found lower on the scoreboard, at #27. Host country the Netherlands fell outside the top 30 last week with Jeangu Macrooy and his Birth of a new age. This week, he’s the biggest winner, gaining four spots to reach #27. There’s no explanation to be found regarding his rise, so this may just be down to a small recovery after his fall in the past couple of weeks.
  • 🇦🇿 Several countries, such as Spain and Ireland, lose spots this week. However, in the top twenty with the bookmakers, there’s just one entry that loses more than one spot: Azerbaijan. Efendi’s decline isn’t drastic: She drops from #17 to #19, but there is a possible explanation for it. The performance she delivered on Azerbaijani TV during the show Səhər Mərkəzi was greeted with criticism. Not because of the lipsync, but because of the choreography, which was deemed rather static by some fans.

This week’s betting odds ranking

As we’ll be looking at the changes over the next few weeks, we’ll list the 39 entries and see how they’re doing below. Countries are ranked by the shortest and longest odds available. You can also see the changes, compared to the previous week.

For this, we have used the available odds on EurovisionWorld.com. We advise you to look at the odds there if you’re interested in those. We will only focus on the ranking of each country in our article.

Disclaimer: Odds can change fast! If you look at the current odds, you may see changes in the upcoming days. We will provide you with an update next week.

CountryEntryChange21/0328/0305/0411/04
1. MaltaDestiny – Je me casse=1111
2. FranceBarbara Pravi – Voilà+13332
3. SwitzerlandGjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers-12223
4. ItalyMåneskin – Zitti e Buoni+15554
5. BulgariaVICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old-14445
6. SwedenTusse – Voices=6666
7. IcelandDaði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years=8777
8. LithuaniaThe Roop – Discoteque=7888
9. NorwayTIX – Fallen Angel=111299
10. San MarinoSenhit – Adrenalina=12111010
11. GreeceStefania – Last Dance+215141311
12. CyprusElena Tsagrinou – El Diablo-1991112
13. FinlandBlind Channel – Dark Side-110101213
14. RussiaManizha – Russian Woman=13131414
15. RomaniaROXEN – Amnesia=16161515
16. MoldovaNatalia Gordienko – Sugar=14151616
17. UkraineGo_A – Shum+119191817
18. IsraelEden Alene – Set Me Free+124241918
19. AzerbaijanEfendi – Mata Hari-217171719
20. BelgiumHooverphonic – The Wrong Place=18182020
21. CroatiaAlbina – Tick-Tock=20202121
22. United KingdomJames Newman – Embers=21212222
23. AustraliaMontaigne – Technicolour=22222323
24. AustriaVincent Bueno – Amen=23232424
25. PortugalThe Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side+127262625
26. North MacedoniaVasil – Here I Stand-134302526
27. The NetherlandsJeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age+429293127
28. DenmarkFyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden-128252728
29. SerbiaHurricane – Loco Loco=33312929
30. GermanyJendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate=31333030
31. IrelandLesley Roy – Maps-330272831
32. LatviaSamanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising=26283232
33. PolandRafał – The Ride=25323333
34. GeorgiaTornike Kipiani – You+232343634
35. Czech RepublicBenny Cristo – Omaga=38353535
36. EstoniaUku Suviste – The Lucky One+136363736
37. SpainBlas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme-339373437
38. SloveniaAna Soklič – Amen=37383838
39. AlbaniaAnxhela Peristeri – Karma=40393939

What do you think about the current betting odds? Is Barbara Pravi’s climb into the top two justified? Let us know!

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