Editorials & Opinion

With the old 50-50 system, the results would be a lot different!

With the old 50-50 system, the results would be a lot different!

As everyone knows, Austria’s Conchita Wurst won the Eurovision Song Contest with her song “Rise Like A Phoenix”. Straight after the final, the EBU has released the full results of this year’s Contest, for the very first time! We have the rankings of each and every juror per country, and the full ranking of the televotes in every country separately, for both semi finals, and the final. Seeing how much I love statistics and numbers, I wanted to work out what would have changed if we still used the old system (last used two years ago in Baku), where the juries awarded points for the top 10 in their opinion, and when they didn’t have to rank the songs from first to last. Converting all the rankings we got this year into points (1 = 12, 2 = 10, … 10 = 1, 11-x = 0), and in a combination with the top 10 in televoting in each and every country, I saw that the results would be slightly different, and that we would have had a different final, than the one we had! The current point system gives an advantage to the songs finishing just out of the top …
An analysis of the Melodifestivalen 2014 results

An analysis of the Melodifestivalen 2014 results

In this editorial, I aim to decipher what the results, which were revealed this morning by SVT, of Melodifestivalen 2014 really mean. I’ve spent a couple of hours number crunching and have come up with some very interesting statistics that have become clear to me as I’ve analysed the figures released today. I will be assessing the average number of votes (per semifinal in total), making comparisons to previous years (in regard to small voting totals) and also displaying who was very close to qualifying from their semifinals as well as just how close one certain artist was to not being a finalist. Average scores Starting with deltävling1, all four qualifiers were above the average vote total of 51,557.25. YOHIO won with 117,219; Ellen Benediktson was second earning 99,444; Helena Paparizou was someway further back in third place with 70,438 followed by Linus gaining 60,732. Deltävling 2 also featured all four qualifiers being above the average vote total of 42,473.125. Sanna Nielsen was the runaway winner with almost a third of the entire vote, receiving 109,592 votes. The fight for second place was close with Martin Stenmarck only 5,504 votes behind Panetoz (they earned 51,897 and 57,401 respectively). Fourth placed …
The draw – does conventional wisdom hold up?

The draw – does conventional wisdom hold up?

With today’s semifinal allocation draw upon us, it seemed like a good time to go digging about in the semifinal numbers. To start with, let me say that I’ve only taken data from the semifinals between 2010 and 2013 inclusive. 2004-2007 were discounted because there was only one semifinal, and almost all countries voted in them; whilst 2008-2009 I left out because they were decided by pure televotes and a jury save. The data from 2010-2013 gives us four years’ worth of solid figures from a two semifinal, 50-50 system. So, what’s lurking in the numbers? Ultimately I set out to prove the logic that you’re better off being drawn in the second half of a semi than the first. Looking back over the past four years, 35 qualifiers came from the first half and 45 from the second – so that holds up. But what is interesting to look at is the average points a country scores in each half. Over three of the last four years, a country has averaged more points in the second half than they have in the first, as you can see on the graph below: It should be noted though that in 2013, …
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