Sam Ryder from the United Kingdom and Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord from Greece surged with bookmakers following their rehearsals at the Eurovision Song Contest in Turin. Last night’s jury rehearsal caused a big surge for Greece, whilst the second rehearsal did the same for the United Kingdom.
He’s up in space, man: Sam Ryder into the top three
Sam Ryder made a great impression during the second rehearsals in Turin. His rehearsal for “Space Man” was well received by the media and the fans, meaning a drastic shortening of the United Kingdom’s odds. The TikTok star finished in second place with the press poll that day and has seen his odds shortening for a while after that. “Space Man” has now passed Cornelia Jakobs from Sweden and has moved into the top three. Sam Ryder briefly found himself in second place, but since last night’s show, Italy’s Mahmood and Blanco are back up to second. Odds for the United Kingdom can be found between 19/2 and 6/1.
They love it: Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord closer to the top five
Following a flawless jury show, Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord is finding herself crawling towards the winners’ circle. The Norwegian-Greek songstress was deemed the most likely qualifier in yesterday’s press poll – even ahead of Ukraine’s Kalush Orchestra and has now seen her odds shorten drastically. The two leading websites to track the Eurovision odds are EurovisionWorld and Oddschecker. Depending on where you look, Greece may be into the top five at this point. EurovisionWorld have them in sixth place, but shortening rapidly. They’ll be about to overtake Spain on their ranking. Oddschecker already have Greece in front. Odds for a “Die Together” victory lie between 33/1 and 20/1. Meanwhile, Chanel’s odds are much more varied, with bookmakers giving odds of 35/1 to 14/1 for a Spanish victory.
How do these work?
We can imagine odds being a bit of a magic trick with numbers, so below, you can find a short explanation of how these odds work. This also includes a short explanation of shortening and drifting and what those terms actually mean. First, let’s start with the odds themselves.
A quick example: Currently, Poland are noted as seventh favourites to win. They have odds of 50/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €50 if Ochman does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Turin. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Romania. WRS finds himself in the bottom three at the moment, with odds of 300/1. If WRS were to win Eurovision 2022, you’d get €300 for every €1 you bet. Sometimes, you’ll see odds of 8/15 of 4/7. This is something we usually see with favourites: Your gainings would logically get smaller the bigger the chance of victory is for a certain country. Ukraine’s Kalush Orchestra now have such odds, meaning that for every €15 you bet, you’d get an extra €8 if they win: Hardly worth the money.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Italy and Sweden up there than Ireland and Montenegro.
What do you think of the sudden surge for Greece and the United Kingdom? Let us know! Be sure to stay updated by following @ESCXTRA on Twitter, @escxtra on Instagram and liking our Facebook page for the latest updates! Also, be sure to follow us on Spotify for the latest music from your favourite Eurovision acts. As well as YouTube to see our reactions to the news in the run up to the 2022 contest in Turin!