The first evening dress rehearsal of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 is complete. After the glitter and pyrotechnics wore off, the Eurovision 2025 Audience Poll team asked members of the audience who their favourite act of the night was. This resulted in a resounding victory for Sweden’s KAJ, receiving almost a quarter of the votes for ‘Bara Bada Bastu’. (23.1%)
The Eurovision 2025 Audience Poll – SF1
In this third edition of the Eurovision Audience Poll, run by a collective of five fan media platforms (ESC Insight, 12 Points From America, ESCXTRA, Eurovoix and That Eurovision Site), the podium revealed an interesting surprise. Following Sweden, it was Claude’s charming pop song, ‘C’est La Vie’ that earned second place with 197 votes, (13.2%). Rounding out the top three was Estonia’s Tommy Cash with 138 votes, (9.2%).
Below the top three, it is proving to be a hotly contested battle for the remaining top ten spots. As shown when one looks at the chances bookmakers give each act to qualify. In a surprising turn of events, Ukraine, who are seen as a safe qualifier, only placed thirteenth, (1.5%). Another shock to many is San Marino’s result in the Eurovision Audience Poll. Despite the bookmakers considering their chances to be borderline, they finished in fourth place, (9.0%). Only three votes behind Estonia. Also showing the struggle pollsters and bookmakers are having this year, is Slovenia. Currently a non-qualifier in the odds. They sneak into the tenth spot in the audience poll on running order count-back ahead of Cyprus. Both sharing 39 votes (2.6%).
Elsewhere in the top ten, Albania (8.8%), Belgium (7.4%), Norway (7.4%) and Iceland (7.1%) were safe qualifiers with the audience at Monday night’s dress rehearsal. Trailing a bit further back in ninth was Poland (4.1%). At the bottom of the scoreboard, we see Portugal (1.9%), Ukraine (1.5%), Croatia (1.2%) and Azerbaijan (0.9%), with Mamagama receiving just 13 votes. The second year in a row that Azerbaijan has placed last.
Analysis of the Eurovision Audience Poll results
Compared to previous expectations from bookmakers, fans and the ESCXTRA.com Press Poll, there are some surprising conclusions. In both the Press Poll and the Audience Poll it is Ukraine that is struggling to find momentum. As a Eurovision powerhouse with strong diaspora across Europe, they may still have enough support to qualify. However, it is clear from the reaction of the live audience, that ‘Bird of Pray’ will be a test of that support for the first Ukrainian entry since ‘Under The Ladder’ to showcase very little in Ukrainian identity and culture in its musicality or staging. Of course, ‘Under The Ladder’ only managed to place 17th in the Final of its contest.
For the most part, there is good agreement between the polls. Both share the same eight countries in their respective top tens. The clear favourite in the polls being Sweden. Showing the sauna that sizzled in Melodifestivalen, still has plenty of heat left for Basel to prove why it’s currently the favourite of the betting community.
During the previous editions of the Audience Poll we learned of its power to predict the televote magnates and surprise success stories of the year. In Liverpool, it was clear from the second Audience Poll that Belgium’s, ‘Because of You’ had strong televote potential. So it proved, with Gustaph’s eventual seventh place in the Grand Final. Last year, it was the turn of Ireland to recapture their Eurovision glory days of the 1990s. Bambie Thug became the surprise hit of the Malmö audience polls. They placed sixth place in the Malmö Grand Final .
This time around we have early indications that Estonia’s Tommy Cash is winning audiences over with his playful choreography and ear-worm lyrics. In contrast to that is the radio-friendly nature of Netherlands’ Claude. Offering a bit of sanctuary for viewers away from all the novelty and crazy. Although Basel has a lot of native French speakers, the popularity of Claude is clearly wider reaching.
One country doing less well than anticipated beforehand is Cyprus. Out of the audience poll top ten on a tie-break despite closing the show and looking like a competitive male pop performance. One reason for this may be that it is a made-for-television performance. The cameras follow Theo and showcase his choreography as its meant to be seen. For those watching in the arena, most of the routine is blocked by the scaffolding on stage and makes the performance look very busy and hard to follow as a result.
Also surprising is the good result for San Marino. Gabry Ponte’s ‘Tutta l’Italia‘ has been seen as an unlikely qualifier to the Grand Final with bookmakers for a while now, yet find themselves in fourth place in the Audience Poll. Could San Marino buck the trend of DJ anthems doing poorly at Eurovision? Usually it is Italy that send the big Italian energy songs to Eurovision. So, it will be interesting to see if San Marino can capture some of their televote market this year.
The Eurovision Audience Poll returns on Wednesday
The first semifinal of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 will take place tonight at 20:00 BST. Fifteen acts will battle for ten tickets to the Grand Final on Saturday. Make sure you tune in to find out who will make it through.
On Wednesday, the Eurovision 2025 Audience Poll will return for its second outing. Our team will once again hit the streets of Basel to ask the audience about their favourites after watching the second dress rehearsal of the second Semi-Final. Members of ESC Insight, 12 Points From America, ESCXTRA, Eurovoix and That Eurovision Site will join forces to reveal the results of the Basel public!
