🇺🇦/🇬🇧 Liverpool 2023
It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2023 contest in Liverpool. These odds were recorded from Eurovisionworld on April 10th 2023, 33 days before the final. As EurovisionWorld is a comparison site, we’ve taken the shortest odds available for each country.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4/5 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Loreen – Tatoo | 1st |
| 2 | 10/3 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Käärijä – Cha Cha Cha | 2nd |
| 3 | 5/1 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Tvorchi – Heart of Steel | 6th |
| 4 | 10/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Alessandra – Queen of Kings | 5th |
| 5 | 12/1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Blanca Paloma – Eaea | 17th |
| 6 | 20/1 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Noa Kirel – Unicorn | 3rd |
| 7 | 20/1 | 🇦🇹 Austria | Teya & Salena – Who the hell is Edgar? | 15th |
| 8 | 22/1 | 🇨🇿 Czechia | Vesna – My Sister’s Crown | 10th |
| 9 | 25/1 | 🇫🇷 France | La Zarra – Évidemment | 16th |
| 10 | 25/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Mae Muller – I Wrote a Song | 25th |
| 11 | 33/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Marco Mengoni – Due Vite | 4th |
| 12 | 40/1 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Remo Forrer – Watergun | 20th |
| 13 | 40/1 | 🇬🇪 Georgia | Iru – Echo | SF (12th) |
| 14 | 40/1 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Brunette – Future Lover | 14th |
| 15 | 40/1 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Alika – Bridges | 8th |
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 66% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
Compared to 2021 and 2022, the 2023 contest was one of the least predictable ones, at least with its top 15. The winner and the runner-up were correctly predicted by the bookmakers, but the rest was a bit more blurry, with a third of the actual top 15 not making it into the top a month in advance.
Italy managed a top 5 finish despite being much further down in the odds, in 11th place. It followed a path similar to their 2018 entry, and for once a returning artist (Marco Mengoni) was actually under-predicted by the bookmakers. But the biggest surprise was Belgium: Gustaph was outside the top 15, and saw a strong shortening in the odds closer in time to the contest. Its queer esthetic worked wonders and pushed “Because of You” to the 7th place, with a strong jury support. Estonia, on a smaller scale, also managed to do much better than expected.
On the other hand, Spain, the United Kingdom and Georgia underperformed. “Eaea” did not have the expected impact, and fell outside the top 10, while “Echo” failed to qualify. Mae Muller was another example of British act being potentially overhyped by bookmakers that are mainly based in the UK and Ireland, with the additional element of being a “host entry”, creating a fake sense of home advantage. The live performance did not live up to the expectations, unfortunately.
🇸🇪 Malmö 2024
It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2024 contest in Malmö. These odds were recorded from Eurovisionworld on April 8th, 33 days before the final. As EurovisionWorld is a comparison site, we’ve taken the shortest odds available for each country.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/5 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Nemo – The Code | 1st |
| 2 | 3/1 | 🇭🇷 Croatia | Baby Lasagna – Rim Tim Tagi Dim | 2nd |
| 3 | 4/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Angelina Mango – La Noia | 7th |
| 4 | 28/5 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | Joost – Europapa | DQ (SF: 2nd) |
| 5 | 6/1 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | alyona alyona & Jerry Heil – Teresa & Maria | 3rd |
| 6 | 12/1 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Mustii – Before the Party’s Over | SF (13th) |
| 7 | 16/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Marina Satti – Zari | 11th |
| 8 | 16/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Slimane – Mon Amour | 4th |
| 9 | 18/1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Windows95man – No Rules! | 19th |
| 10 | 20/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Olly – Dizzy | 18th |
| 11 | 21/1 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Eden Golan – Hurricane | 5th |
| 12 | 25/1 | 🇦🇹 Austria | Kaleen – We Will Rave | 24th |
| 13 | 26/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Marcus & Martinus – Unforgettable | 9th |
| 14 | 27/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Gåte – Ulveham | 25th |
| 15 | 31/1 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Ladaniva – Jako | 8th |
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
While Turin 2022 was more predictable than Rotterdam 2021, Malmö 2024 ended up going on a downwards trend after Liverpool 2023. Only 60% of the eventual top 5 and top 15 was placed inside the same top a month in advance.
Once again, though, the winner was correctly guessed. In reality, Switzerland had been a favourite during the promotion season for most bookmakers, but Croatia was the favourite until the end of March and when Eurovision rehearsals began, and the two were very close (with odds of basically 2/1 and 3/1) during the promotion season. In the end, just as in 2023, the top 2 was correct.
The main surprise in the actual top 15 was of course Ireland : with only a Late Late Show staging to show for most of the season, and a very niche genre for their song, Bambie Thug was just below the top 15. Its odds started to shorten by mid-April and eventually they were much closer to its 6th place in the final, but it was clearly one of the revealation of the season, and especially of the first rehearsals. Another strong surprise was Israel, but the political discourse around its participation, and around the votes for the entry, made it an exceptionnal situation not helping predictions.
On the other hand, quite a few songs did not live up to the expectation of the bookmakers. Austria, Norway, and the United Kingdom most noticeably, with another example of a famous (British) artist being overhyped and “overpredicted”.
Then, there is of course the strange case of The Netherlands. Disqualified from the contest a few hours before the final, in an event that was not predictable, it does affect these statistics marginally. Considering the jury votes the Netherlands would have obtained (which can be determined from the detailed jury results) and the televote points they would potentially have received (having finished second in a televote-only semi-final), “Europapa” would have likely made it into the Top 15, and possibly into the top 5.
🇨🇭 Basel 2025
It’s now time to look back at the odds for last year’s contest, Eurovision 2025 in Basel. These odds were recorded from Eurovisionworld on April 12th, 35 days before the final. As EurovisionWorld is a comparison site, we’ve taken the shortest odds available for each country.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3/2 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | KAJ – Bara Bada Bastu | 4th |
| 2 | 9/4 | 🇦🇹 Austria | JJ – Wasted Love | 1st |
| 3 | 5/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Louane – Maman | 7th |
| 4 | 10/1 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Yuval Rafael – New Day Will Rise | 2nd |
| 5 | 12/1 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | Claude – C’est la vie | 12th |
| 6 | 16/1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Erika Vikman – Ich Komme | 11th |
| 7 | 16/1 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Red Sebastian – Strobe Lights | SF (14th) |
| 8 | 16/1 | 🇦🇱 Albania | Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm | 8th |
| 9 | 20/1 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Tommy Cash – Espresso macchiato | 3rd |
| 10 | 25/1 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Ziferblat – Bird of Pray | 9th |
| 11 | 25/1 | 🇸🇲 San Marino | Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia | 26th |
| 12 | 28/1 | 🇨🇿 Czechia | Adonxs – Kiss Kiss Goodbye | SF (12th) |
| 13 | 33/1 | 🇲🇹 Malta | Miriana Conte – Serving | 17th |
| 14 | 33/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Remember Monday – What The Hell Just Happened | 19th |
| 15 | 33/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Lucio Corsi – Volevo essere un duro | 5th |
- The winning entry was placed 2nd in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 66% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
For the first time since 2021, the odds did not precisely predict the winner, although Austria was second and not far behind the favourite, Sweden. Despite this, the 2025 odds were technically more predictive than the 2024 ones, with one more entry from the odds’ top 15 making it into the actual top 15 – although, as we have mentionned earlier, The Netherlands would have made it into the top 15 had they not been disqualified in Malmö.
Non-qualifiers Czechia and Belgium were both highly ranked by bookmakers, with the bigger surprise coming from “Strobe Lights”, Belgium being once again overhyped by fans and odds alike compared to its actual result. With hindsight, people were very optimistic about the musical reception of the Belgian entry, and the performance, although well-delivered, did not hit the right chord. Czechia’s performance was a clearer let-down in its concept, and suffered from delivery issues, with Adonxs clearly not in a good mental state during the show, even missing a cue. An additional theory, circulated among fan circles, is that both performances also adopted queer visuals which could be “counter-productive” with the televote, scaring voters away.
Also over-ranked, but less underperforming, were France and The Netherlands, with the same kind of issues : staging or performances not doing as well as expected.
On the other end of the spectrum, the two entries that overperformed compared to the odds ended up at the edge of the top 5: Lucio Corsi for Italy (in 5th) and Klavdia for Greece (in 6th), the latter not even present in the top 15 a month earlier. There are precedent in earlier years, like Austria in 2018 or Ireland in 2024. And once again, stagings did a lot to help both entries, not only by impacting viewers and jurors alike, but also by clearly highlighting the qualities of the songs themselves.
Our journey down memory lane and our final analysis continues on the next page…
