UPDATE: We are currently investigating a new discovery that suggests the cumulative results regarding the 15 eligible juries provided by the EBU today, which we’ve included in our analysis below, do not correspond with those results revealed previously.
This afternoon, the EBU released an official statement in regards to the removal of six national juries from the second semi-final, and subsequently the final, of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest. You can read this statement and the removed national jury votes here.
As a result, we’ve taken this new information and analysed how the results of the second semi-final would’ve changed if those jury votes had remained in the competition rather than being replaced by substitute votes.
Semi-final 2 jury voting changes
The leaderboard below shows the changes in jury points in three different calculations of the votes. This table is sorted in order of the results if the six jury results that were removed had not been removed.
Column A: Official semi-final 2 jury ranking
Column B: Jury ranking based on points scored with the removed jury results added
Column C: Jury ranking gained/lost if the six juries were not removed
Column D: Jury points scored with the 15 eligible jury votes only
Column E: Jury points scored with the substitute results added (the official results)
Column F: Jury points scored with the removed jury results added
Column G: Jury points gained/lost if the six juries were not removed
| A | B | C | Country | D | E | F | G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | = | Sweden | 156 | 222 | 172 | -50 |
| 2 | 2 | = | Australia | 118 | 169 | 133 | -36 |
| 6 | 3 | +3 | Azerbaijan | 62 | 96 | 105 | +9 |
| 3 | 4 | -1 | Estonia | 85 | 113 | 97 | -16 |
| 7 | 5 | +2 | Poland | 44 | 84 | 85 | +1 |
| 5 | 6 | -1 | Czech Republic | 76 | 102 | 76 | -26 |
| 4 | 7 | -3 | Belgium | 74 | 105 | 74 | -31 |
| 9 | 8 | +1 | Serbia | 45 | 63 | 66 | +3 |
| 13 | 9 | +4 | San Marino | 21 | 21 | 64 | +43 |
| 8 | 10 | -2 | Finland | 49 | 63 | 63 | = |
| 14 | 11 | +3 | Romania | 10 | 18 | 53 | +35 |
| 15 | 12 | +3 | Georgia | 8 | 13 | 50 | +37 |
| 17 | 13 | +4 | Montenegro | 10 | 11 | 49 | +38 |
| 10 | 14 | -4 | North Macedonia | 39 | 56 | 46 | -10 |
| 11 | 15 | -4 | Israel | 30 | 34 | 37 | +3 |
| 12 | 16 | -4 | Malta | 23 | 27 | 23 | -4 |
| 16 | 17 | -1 | Ireland | 11 | 12 | 16 | +4 |
| 18 | 18 | = | Cyprus | 9 | 9 | 9 | = |
As you can see, with the removed jury results included, San Marino would’ve been in the top 10 with the juries in place of North Macedonia who placed 10th in the official ranking with the substitute results added.
In terms of points, you can see that four of the nations that had removed juries, San Marino, Romania, Georgia and Montenegro would’ve greatly benefited from those jury votes being included, receiving approximately 40 points more than they did with the substitute votes. The other two nations involved in the irregular jury voting, Azerbaijan and Poland, would have only gained a few extra points than they achieved with the substitute votes which suggests their positions were much more on merit.
On the other hand, Sweden, Australia, Czech Republic and Belgium benefited most from the substitute votes being used and would’ve lost between 25 and 50 points should the six jury votes not have been removed.
Semi-final 2 overall changes
Column A: Official semi-final 2 overall ranking
Column B: Overall ranking based on points scored with the removed jury results added
Column C: Overall ranking gained/lost if the six juries were not removed
Column D: Overall points scored with the substitute results added (the official results)
Column E: Overall points scored with the removed jury results added
| A | B | C | Country | D | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | = | Sweden | 396 | 346 |
| 3 | 2 | +1 | Serbia | 237 | 240 |
| 2 | 3 | -1 | Australia | 243 | 207 |
| 4 | 4 | = | Czech Republic | 227 | 201 |
| 6 | 5 | +1 | Poland | 198 | 199 |
| 5 | 6 | -1 | Estonia | 209 | 193 |
| 7 | 7 | = | Finland | 162 | 162 |
| 9 | 8 | +1 | Romania | 118 | 153 |
| 8 | 9 | -1 | Belgium | 151 | 120 |
| 10 | 10 | = | Azerbaijan | 96 | 105 |
| 14 | 11 | +3 | San Marino | 50 | 93 |
| 17 | 12 | +5 | Montenegro | 33 | 71 |
| 11 | 13 | -2 | North Macedonia | 76 | 66 |
| 13 | 14 | -1 | Israel | 61 | 64 |
| 12 | 15 | -3 | Cyprus | 63 | 63 |
| 18 | 16 | +2 | Georgia | 22 | 59 |
| 15 | 17 | -2 | Ireland | 47 | 51 |
| 16 | 18 | -2 | Malta | 47 | 43 |
Despite the significant change in points for some countries if the removed jury votes had been used instead, the ten qualifiers would’ve remained the same either way. Nevertheless, San Marino and Montenegro would’ve been very close to qualification whereas Malta would’ve dropped to the foot of the table.
Let us know your thoughts on how the six removed jury results would’ve affected the Eurovision 2022 semi-final leaderboard? Get in touch with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube and TikTok using the social media handle @ESCXTRA!
There is something very odd about the EBU overriding the results given to them on the apparent basis of nothing but statistical analysis.Statistics is not an exact science. If the EBU has direct evidence of fraud it should be disclosed to law enforcement. Full disclosure – degree in Mathematics and Computer Science.
I can see this ending up with legal action.
so…the \’\’cheating juries\’\’,- in my opinion there will be consequences for these words used by EBU,- have not influenced a bit the results, with or without these votes, the 10 qualifiers are the same. If we are looking for patterns, maybe we can dig some more.
I really hope the true cheater will be revealed , which is EBU , which under no evidence but pure “I am making sure this year Ukraine wins “, created a false narrative ! Let it be trial !
On the official EBU site, there is a an upgraded table that shows Jury Vote in the second semi-final with the 6 contested Juries Votes removed:
Sweden 150
Australia 109
Azerbaijan 77…
https://eurovision.tv/mediacentre/release/ebu-statement-irregular-voting-2022
How did you calculated:
Sweden 156
Australia 118
Azerbaijan 62… ?