Editorials & Opinion

ANALYSIS: How would the removed jury points have changed the semi-final 2 results of Eurovision 2022?

UPDATE: We are currently investigating a new discovery that suggests the cumulative results regarding the 15 eligible juries provided by the EBU today, which we’ve included in our analysis below, do not correspond with those results revealed previously.

This afternoon, the EBU released an official statement in regards to the removal of six national juries from the second semi-final, and subsequently the final, of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest. You can read this statement and the removed national jury votes here.

As a result, we’ve taken this new information and analysed how the results of the second semi-final would’ve changed if those jury votes had remained in the competition rather than being replaced by substitute votes.

Semi-final 2 jury voting changes

The leaderboard below shows the changes in jury points in three different calculations of the votes. This table is sorted in order of the results if the six jury results that were removed had not been removed.

Column A: Official semi-final 2 jury ranking
Column B: Jury ranking based on points scored with the removed jury results added
Column C: Jury ranking gained/lost if the six juries were not removed

Column D: Jury points scored with the 15 eligible jury votes only
Column E: Jury points scored with the substitute results added (the official results)
Column F: Jury points scored with the removed jury results added
Column G: Jury points gained/lost if the six juries were not removed

ABCCountryDEFG
11=Sweden156222172-50
22=Australia118169133-36
63+3Azerbaijan6296105+9
34-1Estonia8511397-16
75+2Poland448485+1
56-1Czech Republic7610276-26
47-3Belgium7410574-31
98+1Serbia456366+3
139+4San Marino212164+43
810-2Finland496363=
1411+3Romania101853+35
1512+3Georgia81350+37
1713+4Montenegro101149+38
1014-4North Macedonia395646-10
1115-4Israel303437+3
1216-4Malta232723-4
1617-1Ireland111216+4
1818=Cyprus999=

As you can see, with the removed jury results included, San Marino would’ve been in the top 10 with the juries in place of North Macedonia who placed 10th in the official ranking with the substitute results added.

In terms of points, you can see that four of the nations that had removed juries, San Marino, Romania, Georgia and Montenegro would’ve greatly benefited from those jury votes being included, receiving approximately 40 points more than they did with the substitute votes. The other two nations involved in the irregular jury voting, Azerbaijan and Poland, would have only gained a few extra points than they achieved with the substitute votes which suggests their positions were much more on merit.

On the other hand, Sweden, Australia, Czech Republic and Belgium benefited most from the substitute votes being used and would’ve lost between 25 and 50 points should the six jury votes not have been removed.

Semi-final 2 overall changes

Column A: Official semi-final 2 overall ranking
Column B: Overall ranking based on points scored with the removed jury results added
Column C: Overall ranking gained/lost if the six juries were not removed

Column D: Overall points scored with the substitute results added (the official results)
Column E: Overall points scored with the removed jury results added

ABCCountryDE
11=Sweden396346
32+1Serbia237240
23-1Australia243207
44=Czech Republic227201
65+1Poland198199
56-1Estonia209193
77=Finland162162
98+1Romania118153
89-1Belgium151120
1010=Azerbaijan96105
1411+3San Marino5093
1712+5Montenegro3371
1113-2North Macedonia7666
1314-1Israel6164
1215-3Cyprus6363
1816+2Georgia2259
1517-2Ireland4751
1618-2Malta4743

Despite the significant change in points for some countries if the removed jury votes had been used instead, the ten qualifiers would’ve remained the same either way. Nevertheless, San Marino and Montenegro would’ve been very close to qualification whereas Malta would’ve dropped to the foot of the table.

Let us know your thoughts on how the six removed jury results would’ve affected the Eurovision 2022 semi-final leaderboard? Get in touch with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube and TikTok using the social media handle @ESCXTRA!

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Ryan Cobb

My first memory of watching the Eurovision Song Contest was back in 2001 and, over the years, my passion and enthusiasm for the contest has very much turned into an obsession. I adore music and I love geography, so this contest is a natural fit for me. If la la loving Eurovision was a crime, I'd certainly be a criminal!

4 Comments

  1. There is something very odd about the EBU overriding the results given to them on the apparent basis of nothing but statistical analysis.Statistics is not an exact science. If the EBU has direct evidence of fraud it should be disclosed to law enforcement. Full disclosure – degree in Mathematics and Computer Science.

    I can see this ending up with legal action.

  2. so…the ”cheating juries”,- in my opinion there will be consequences for these words used by EBU,- have not influenced a bit the results, with or without these votes, the 10 qualifiers are the same. If we are looking for patterns, maybe we can dig some more.

  3. I really hope the true cheater will be revealed , which is EBU , which under no evidence but pure “I am making sure this year Ukraine wins “, created a false narrative ! Let it be trial !

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