This is an updated version of an article published in March 2021
I’ve always had a slightly unhealthy obsession with Eurovision odds and continue to do so. I often believe that they can’t beย that wrong when it comes to the results at Eurovision itself. In the weeks before their respective contests, I was convinced France had it in the bag in 2011, Armenia the same in 2014, Russia in 2016 and Italy in 2017. They were all such strong favourites that surely they would follow in the footsteps of other strong favourites such as Alexander Rybak and Loreen? Nevertheless, this didn’t turn out to be the case.
Are odds really a good indicator of the eventual results?
For many fans, betting odds are considered the most important ranking when it comes to predicting where entries will finish in May. Fan forum rankings or YouTube views can always be skewed by either the often atypical taste of Eurovision fans or the size of the populations of the participating countries. Yet, with odds, people have to put their money where their mouth is. They have to think with their head rather than follow their heart.
To discover how good an indicator betting odds really have been in predicting Eurovision successes prior to action kicking off at rehearsals, we are about to take a look back at the pre-contest odds from every single contest since 1998 (which is the furthest back that I can find on the internet!). For each contest, we’ve used recordings of odds from approximately a month before the contest. This is ideal as it doesn’t take into account the effect of rehearsals on odds. However, people will have had weeks to get to know all the entries and make logical predictions. The only exceptions to this are the earlier contests as due to the scarcity of available information, I just had to use whatever I could find!
So sit back and enjoy this 23-year Eurovision flight!
๐ฌ๐ง Birmingham 1998
Date of final: 9 May 1998
Odds recorded: 8 May 1998 (1 day before the final)
Source: BBC
- The winning entry was placed 6th in the odds.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 80% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5/2 | ๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom | Imaani – Where Are You? | 2nd |
| 2 | 5/1 | ๐ง๐ช Belgium | Mรฉlanie Cohl – Dis oui | 6th |
| 3 | 7/1 | ๐ธ๐ช Sweden | Jill Johnson – Kรคrleken รคr | 10th |
| 4 | 8/1 | ๐ฎ๐ช Ireland | Dawn Martin – Is Always Over Now? | 9th |
| 5 | 9/1 | ๐ฒ๐น Malta | Chiara – The One That I Love | 3rd |
| 6 | 10/1 | ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel | Dana International – Diva | 1st |
| 7 | 10/1 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands | Edsilia – Hemel en aarde | 4th |
| 8 | 12/1 | ๐ฉ๐ช Germany | Guildo Horn – Guildo hat euch lieb! | 7th |
| 9 | 14/1 | ๐ต๐ฑ Poland | Sixteen – To takie proste | 17th |
| 10 | 16/1 | ๐ซ๐ท France | Marie Line – Oรน aller | 24th |
| 11 | 18/1 | ๐จ๐ญ Switzerland | Gunvor – Lass ihn | 25th |
| 12 | 20/1 | ๐ญ๐ท Croatia | Danijela – Neka mi ne svane | 5th |
| 13 | 20/1 | ๐ช๐ช Estonia | Koit Toome – Mere lapsed | 12th |
| 14 | 20/1 | ๐ณ๐ด Norway | Lars A. Fredriksen – Alltid sommer | 8th |
| 15 | 20/1 | ๐ต๐น Portugal | Alma Lusa – Se eu te pudesse abraรงar | 12th |
๐ฎ๐ฑ Jerusalem 1999
Date of final: 29 May 1999
Odds recorded: 25 May 1999 (4 days before the final)
Source: Ladbrokes via BBC
- The winning entry was placed 2nd in the odds.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4/1 | ๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom | Precious – Say It Again | 12th |
| 2 | 6/1 | ๐ธ๐ช Sweden | Charlotte Nilsson – Take Me To Your Heaven | 1st |
| 3 | 7/1 | ๐ฒ๐น Malta | Times Three – Believe ‘n Peace | 15th |
| 4 | 7/1 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands | Marlayne – One Good Reason | 8th |
| 5 | 8/1 | ๐ฎ๐ธ Iceland | Selma – All Out Of Luck | 2nd |
| 6 | 12/1 | ๐จ๐พ Cyprus | Marlain – Tha’nai erotas | 22nd |
| 7 | 12/1 | ๐ฎ๐ช Ireland | The Mullans – When You Need Me | 17th |
๐ธ๐ช Stockholm 2000
Date of final: 13 May 2000
Odds recorded: 27 April 2000 (16 days before the final)
Source: myledbury.co.uk
- The winning entry was placed 11th in the odds.
- 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/2 | ๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom | Nicki French – Don’t Play That Song Again | 16th |
| 2 | 4/1 | ๐ฎ๐ช Ireland | Eamonn Toal – Millennium Of Love | 6th |
| 3 | 5/1 | ๐ฉ๐ช Germany | Stefan Raab – Wadde hadde dudde da? | 5th |
| 4 | 6/1 | ๐ฎ๐ธ Iceland | August & Telma – Tell Me! | 12th |
| 5 | 10/1 | ๐ฒ๐น Malta | Claudette Pace – Desire | 8th |
| 6 | 12/1 | ๐ช๐ช Estonia | Ines – Once In A Lifetime | 4th |
| 7 | 14/1 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands | Linda Wagenmakers – No Goodbyes | 13th |
| 8 | 14/1 | ๐ณ๐ด Norway | Charmed – My Heart Goes Boom | 11th |
| 9 | 14/1 | ๐จ๐ญ Switzerland | Jane Bogaert – La vita cos’รจ? | 20th |
| 10 | 16/1 | ๐ง๐ช Belgium | Nathalie Source – Envie de vivre | 24th |
| 11 | 20/1 | ๐ฉ๐ฐ Denmark | Olsen Brothers – Fly On The Wings Of Love | 1st |
| 12 | 20/1 | ๐ซ๐ฎ Finland | Nina ร strรถm – A Little Bit | 18th |
| 13 | 20/1 | ๐ฒ๐ฐ F.Y.R. Macedonia | XXL – 100% te ljubam | 15th |
| 14 | 25/1 | ๐ฆ๐น Austria | The Rounder Girls – All To You | 14th |
| 15 | 25/1 | ๐ฑ๐ป Latvia | Brainstorm – My Star | 3rd |
Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…
