This is an updated version of an article published in March 2021
I’ve always had a slightly unhealthy obsession with Eurovision odds and continue to do so. I often believe that they can’t be that wrong when it comes to the results at Eurovision itself. In the weeks before their respective contests, I was convinced France had it in the bag in 2011, Armenia the same in 2014, Russia in 2016 and Italy in 2017. They were all such strong favourites that surely they would follow in the footsteps of other strong favourites such as Alexander Rybak and Loreen? Nevertheless, this didn’t turn out to be the case.
Are odds really a good indicator of the eventual results?
For many fans, betting odds are considered the most important ranking when it comes to predicting where entries will finish in May. Fan forum rankings or YouTube views can always be skewed by either the often atypical taste of Eurovision fans or the size of the populations of the participating countries. Yet, with odds, people have to put their money where their mouth is. They have to think with their head rather than follow their heart.
To discover how good an indicator betting odds really have been in predicting Eurovision successes prior to action kicking off at rehearsals, we are about to take a look back at the pre-contest odds from every single contest since 1998 (which is the furthest back that I can find on the internet!). For each contest, we’ve used recordings of odds from approximately a month before the contest. This is ideal as it doesn’t take into account the effect of rehearsals on odds. However, people will have had weeks to get to know all the entries and make logical predictions. The only exceptions to this are the earlier contests as due to the scarcity of available information, I just had to use whatever I could find!
So sit back and enjoy this 23-year Eurovision flight!
🇬🇧 Birmingham 1998
Date of final: 9 May 1998
Odds recorded: 8 May 1998 (1 day before the final)
Source: BBC
- The winning entry was placed 6th in the odds.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 80% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5/2 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Imaani – Where Are You? | 2nd |
| 2 | 5/1 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Mélanie Cohl – Dis oui | 6th |
| 3 | 7/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Jill Johnson – Kärleken är | 10th |
| 4 | 8/1 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | Dawn Martin – Is Always Over Now? | 9th |
| 5 | 9/1 | 🇲🇹 Malta | Chiara – The One That I Love | 3rd |
| 6 | 10/1 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Dana International – Diva | 1st |
| 7 | 10/1 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Edsilia – Hemel en aarde | 4th |
| 8 | 12/1 | 🇩🇪 Germany | Guildo Horn – Guildo hat euch lieb! | 7th |
| 9 | 14/1 | 🇵🇱 Poland | Sixteen – To takie proste | 17th |
| 10 | 16/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Marie Line – Où aller | 24th |
| 11 | 18/1 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Gunvor – Lass ihn | 25th |
| 12 | 20/1 | 🇭🇷 Croatia | Danijela – Neka mi ne svane | 5th |
| 13 | 20/1 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Koit Toome – Mere lapsed | 12th |
| 14 | 20/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Lars A. Fredriksen – Alltid sommer | 8th |
| 15 | 20/1 | 🇵🇹 Portugal | Alma Lusa – Se eu te pudesse abraçar | 12th |
🇮🇱 Jerusalem 1999
Date of final: 29 May 1999
Odds recorded: 25 May 1999 (4 days before the final)
Source: Ladbrokes via BBC
- The winning entry was placed 2nd in the odds.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Precious – Say It Again | 12th |
| 2 | 6/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Charlotte Nilsson – Take Me To Your Heaven | 1st |
| 3 | 7/1 | 🇲🇹 Malta | Times Three – Believe ‘n Peace | 15th |
| 4 | 7/1 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Marlayne – One Good Reason | 8th |
| 5 | 8/1 | 🇮🇸 Iceland | Selma – All Out Of Luck | 2nd |
| 6 | 12/1 | 🇨🇾 Cyprus | Marlain – Tha’nai erotas | 22nd |
| 7 | 12/1 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | The Mullans – When You Need Me | 17th |
🇸🇪 Stockholm 2000
Date of final: 13 May 2000
Odds recorded: 27 April 2000 (16 days before the final)
Source: myledbury.co.uk
- The winning entry was placed 11th in the odds.
- 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/2 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Nicki French – Don’t Play That Song Again | 16th |
| 2 | 4/1 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | Eamonn Toal – Millennium Of Love | 6th |
| 3 | 5/1 | 🇩🇪 Germany | Stefan Raab – Wadde hadde dudde da? | 5th |
| 4 | 6/1 | 🇮🇸 Iceland | August & Telma – Tell Me! | 12th |
| 5 | 10/1 | 🇲🇹 Malta | Claudette Pace – Desire | 8th |
| 6 | 12/1 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Ines – Once In A Lifetime | 4th |
| 7 | 14/1 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Linda Wagenmakers – No Goodbyes | 13th |
| 8 | 14/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Charmed – My Heart Goes Boom | 11th |
| 9 | 14/1 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Jane Bogaert – La vita cos’è? | 20th |
| 10 | 16/1 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Nathalie Source – Envie de vivre | 24th |
| 11 | 20/1 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Olsen Brothers – Fly On The Wings Of Love | 1st |
| 12 | 20/1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Nina Åström – A Little Bit | 18th |
| 13 | 20/1 | 🇲🇰 F.Y.R. Macedonia | XXL – 100% te ljubam | 15th |
| 14 | 25/1 | 🇦🇹 Austria | The Rounder Girls – All To You | 14th |
| 15 | 25/1 | 🇱🇻 Latvia | Brainstorm – My Star | 3rd |
Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…
Comments on EXPANDED EDITION: We rediscover pre-contest Eurovision odds from 1998 to 2021!