The Eurovision channel has released the running order of both semi-finals, including both the countries competing in them and the automatic qualifiers performing during the shows. We look closer to the first semi-final: who are the winners and the losers of this order? What can we expect from it?
The Running order itself
The running order announced tonight for the first semi-final was as follows :
- 1 – 🇮🇸 Iceland – VÆB – “Róa”
- 2 – 🇵🇱 Poland – Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja”
- 3 – 🇸🇮 Slovenia – Klemen – “How Much Time Do We Have Left?”
- 4 – 🇪🇪 Estonia – Tommy Cash – “Espresso macchiato”
- AQ – 🇪🇸 Spain (automatic qualifier) – Melody – “Esa diva”
- 5 – 🇺🇦 Ukraine – Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray”
- 6 – 🇸🇪 Sweden – KAJ – “Bara bada bastu”
- 7 – 🇵🇹 Portugal – NAPA – “Deslocado”
- 8 – 🇳🇴 Norway – Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter”
- 9 – 🇧🇪 Belgium – Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights”
- AQ – 🇮🇹 Italy (automatic qualifier) – Lucio Coris – “Volevo essero un duro”
- 10 – 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan – Mamagama – “Run With U”
- 11 – 🇸🇲 San Marino – Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia”
- 12 – 🇦🇱 Albania – Shkodra Elektronika – “Zjerm”
- 13 – 🇳🇱 Netherlands – Claude – “C’est la vie”
- 14 – 🇭🇷 Croatia – Marko Bošnjak – “Poison Cake”
- AQ – 🇨🇭 Switzerland (automatic qualifier) – Zoë Më – “Voyage”
- 15 – 🇨🇾 Cyprus – Theo Evan – “Ssh”
AQ means “Automatic Qualifier”.
Starting (and closing) with a bang
Starting with a decrescendo
It is a general rule of thumb that a Eurovision show should start and finish with an uptempo song. With the allocation draw results from late January, two countries seemed to be obvious choices to open: Iceland and Sweden. Both are very lively, uptempo entries, but with different styles. “Róa” leans more towards a dance and electro sound, while “Bara Bada Bastu” is more “anthemic”, ear-wormy, and will certainly keep its Melodifestivalen staging which can categorize it into the “fun entry” box.
Both choices could have worked, but Iceland was the producer’s choice, and it will clearly catch the viewer’s attention. The issue then comes of choosing the song that comes second: this spot is often seen as the “death spot” (at least in the final), and the temptation is strong to put a slow song with limited qualification hopes in there. From the first half, Portugal and Slovenia would fit that bill. But the producers have made a more original choice: Poland’s “Gaja” will follow Iceland, and then Slovenia will come in third position.
Instead of a contrast between a dance track and a ballad, the semi-final will open with a bang, gently slow down in terms of tempo but not in terms of energy with Poland, and finally calm down for Slovenia. This also puts a female act in the opening minutes of the show, in a semi-final where only 4 out of 18 entries have a main female performer (including two from the automatic qualifiers).
This is not unheard of: the first semi-final in Turin did something relatively similar with almost an inversion of the first two spots. Opening with Albania’s hot and fiery “Sekret” (atmospherically closer to Poland this year), it then followed with the cheeky “Eat your Salad” from Latvia (a lighter dance track, perhaps closer to Iceland this year than it would be to Poland : lowering the tension in the atmosphere but not the tempo), with everything slowing down for Lithuania (“Sentimentai”) and then Switzerland (“Boys do Cry”).
This time though, after Slovenia, the energy will go back up with the quirky Estonia, then the more classical dance track “Esa Diva” from Spain (which will likely follow a small pause to explain that people cannot vote for the automatic qualifiers).
This remains a tough spot for Poland, who will miss some of its natural allies (the UK, to name just one…), which may make its qualification less certain.
Silence for the close
In the second half, two songs could have fit the bill of closing with a bang: Cyprus and San Marino were worthy candidates. Belgium may have been a candidate, but its position in the early positions of the second half is natural: it opens up the party for later songs.
“Tutta l’Italia” is such a “stadium anthem”, it could have very well closed. But “Shh” was chosen instead, which will both work for the show and for itself, making it a winner of the running order: it follows Switzerland, a much calmer song which does not compete for a spot in the final, and which is itself a dampener used to slow things down and “reassure” more traditional viewers after what will likely be an original, potentially queer-coded (or queer-visible) performance by Marko from Croatia. “Voyage” will also garner a strong support from the local audience, preparing both the arena and TV viewers for a Cypriot finish. The existence of a big prop justifying its final slot is also a possibility.
The Italian bloc
A strong element in this semi-final will also be the well-crafted succession of entries likely designed to keep viewers from Italy on their TV :
- 9 – 🇧🇪 Belgium – Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights”
- AQ – 🇮🇹 Italy (automatic qualifier) – Lucio Coris – “Volevo essero un duro”
- 10 – 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan – Mamagama – “Run With U”
- 11 – 🇸🇲 San Marino – Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia”
- 12 – 🇦🇱 Albania – Shkodra Elektronika – “Zjerm”
Despite a big population with Italian origins, Belgium is not completely integrated into this bloc of entries, but it is useful to remember its spot because Italy likely follows it to bring the atmosphere down after Norway’s midtempo fiery performance, and Red Sebastian’s rave party in St. Jakobshalle.
Viewership usually goes up in a country when its act performs on the evening, even in a semi-final. These extra viewers will only have to wait for one song (“Run with U”) before finding the Sanremo anthem “Tutta l’Italia”, and will be ready to vote for it. Then will follow Albania’s entry, sure to bolster the diaspora in Italy too. It is likely Albanian voters will also appreciate Gabry Ponte’s attempt, and that Italy’s 12 points to their Adriatic neighbour would be paid back to the small Republic itself.
This, of course, leaves Azerbaijan trying to float in the metaphorical Adriatic sea between these entries: some could argue it would help it be noticed by these voters. I personally think the running order will not help it and makes it the main loser of this announcement. It is also likely that it will be followed by an ad break, to lead to San Marino, giving people more time to forget it and to be prepared for Gabry Ponte. The recap will not help either: locked between Belgium and San Marino, it will likely suffer the fate of Poland in last year’s semi-final (locked between Ukraine and Croatia).
Saunas, lighters and melodies
What do we have left, after the opening and closing sequences, and the “Italian” bloc?
Sweden’s way to the final
One of the favourite to win the contest this year is Sweden, with “Bara Bada Bastu”. After gentle inverted rollercoaster of energy in the first entries (starting with energy, going down to Slovenia, then back up to Spain), it is likely the first ad break will be after Ukraine. “Bird of Pray” will very likely qualify, wherever it is put, and should stand out after “Esa Diva”, a more familiar entry separating it from another original composition, “Espresso Macchiato”.
This little sequence may actually hurt Estonia, potentially marking its Italian-Spanish parody as something “cheap” when followed by an actual, fiery, Mediterranean entry.
After the likely ad-break, Sweden will open what will fill like the second part of the nigh with “Bara Bada Bastu”, and KAJ’s performance will be very effective with the televote. Portugal’s position, right after, will work as a reassurance for more traditional viewers (as “Grito” did in last year’s Final, after (surprise, suprise…) Finland’s “No Rules”), while showcasing two very different but very authentic songs in their respective national languages.
The slower rythms of “Deslocado” will be followed by the midtempo of “Lighter”, making way for the rave energy of Belgium’s “Strobe Lights”. The progression should make each song stand out, and although it could be at the disadvantage of Norway, its proximity to Sweden and the very good stage performance we can expect from Kyle Allesandro should make up for it.
Cake la vie
Albania will close the “Italian bloc”, and make way for The Netherlands. Claude is a seasoned performer, and should keep the people’s attention after the mysterious and ethnic “Zjerm”. It will also appear as a more balanced and traditional entry before “Poison Cake”. Its qualification is safe.
Croatia is a strange one: the fan community is, generally, not very appreciative of “Poison Cake”. Yet its originality may be an advantage: although the Dora staging will be changed, we cannot expect anything boring from Marko Bošnjak. A memorable performance, boosted by a late position in the running-order, make it a stronger contender for qualification than people give it credit for. Yet, in the recap, sandwiched between The Netherlands and Cyprus, the comparison should be at its disadvantage. The lack of strong allies (with only Slovenia around) to also handicaps it.
Who will qualify?
This is by no means ESCXTRA’s prediction, but it is mine with the information we have right now :
- Safe qualifiers
- Sweden
- San Marino
- Ukraine
- Likely qualifiers
- Cyprus
- The Netherlands
- Belgium
- Albania
- Norway
- Tossup qualifiers
- Iceland
- Poland
- Estonia
- Portugal
- Croatia?
What do you think of our analysis? Do you agree with our findings? Who do you think will qualify from this semi-final? Tell us more in the comments below or on social media at @escxtra!
