This is an updated version of an article last published in 2021, which had been updated several times previously, by our former editor Ryan Cobb. The comments from before 2021 were written by him and were only edited for aesthetic or topographical purpose (for example, “Turkey” has been changed to “Türkiye”).
For many years now, people have been paying money to predict who would win Eurovision. A full market has been established, and why not? People bet on who would win a sports game, a TV show, an election: it’s only natural they would bet on Eurovision. But how predictable have these odds been? With this updated article, we go back to our year-by-year analysis of Eurovision odds and we try to understand how good they may be at predicting the results of our contest.
Are odds really a good indicator of the eventual results?
For many fans, betting odds are considered the most important ranking when it comes to predicting where entries will finish in May. App rankings or YouTube views can always be skewed by either the often atypical taste of Eurovision fans or the size of the populations of the participating countries. Yet, with odds, people have to put their money where their mouth is. They have to think with their head rather than follow their heart.
To discover how good an indicator betting odds really have been in predicting Eurovision successes prior to action kicking off at rehearsals, we are about to take a look back at the last seventeen years of betting odds which are as far back as buzzjack.com‘s odds archive goes. For each contest, we’ve used recordings of odds from approximately a month before the contest, either from specific bookmakers, Oddschecker, or EurovisionWorld. This is ideal as it doesn’t take into account the effect of rehearsals on odds. However, people will have had weeks to get to know all the entries and make logical predictions.
🇫🇮 Helsinki 2007
Firstly, let’s look back at the odds ahead of the 2007 contest in Helsinki. These odds were recorded from Paddy Power on April 16th, 26 days before the final on May 12th.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5/1 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | DJ Bobo – Vampires Are Alive | SF (20th) |
| 2 | 7/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | The Ark – The Worrying Kind | 18th |
| 3 | 8/1 | 🇷🇸 Serbia | Marija Šerifović – Molitva | 1st |
| 4 | 8/1 | 🇧🇾 Belarus | Koldun – Work Your Magic | 6th |
| 5 | 11/1 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Verka Serduchka – Dancing Lasha Tumbai | 2nd |
| 6 | 11/1 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | Elitsa Todorova and Stoyan Yankoulov – Water | 5th |
| 7 | 12/1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Serebro – Song #1 | 3rd |
| 8 | 14/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Sarbel – Yassou Maria | 7th |
| 9 | 16/1 | 🇷🇴 Romania | Todomondo – Liubi, Liubi, I Love You | 13th |
| 10 | 16/1 | 🇨🇾 Cyprus | Evridiki – Comme ci, Comme ça | SF (15th) |
| 11 | 20/1 | 🇸🇮 Slovenia | Alenka Gotar – Cvet Z Juga | 15th |
| 12 | 20/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Scooch – Flying The Flag (For You) | 22nd |
| 13 | 20/1 | 🇲🇹 Malta | Olivia Lewis – Vertigo | SF (25th) |
| 14 | 25/1 | 🇱🇻 Latvia | Bonaparti.lv – Questa Notte | 16th |
| 15 | 25/1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | D’NASH – I Love You Mi Vida | 20th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 3rd in the odds.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
As we can see, Switzerland were favourites to win the contest prior to the 2007 contest. It was, therefore, an almighty shock for them to not make it through the semi-final in 2007. Indeed, it was an even bigger surprise to see them languish in 20th out of the 28 semi-finalists that year. Sweden was another misfire by the bookmakers, but the rest of the highest placing countries in the odds achieved high placings at the contest.
The other two most overrated entries were from Cyprus and Malta who both failed to make the final. In fact, Malta’s Olivia Lewis found herself in the bottom 4 in the semi-final with “Vertigo”. This result was a major disappointment considering the pre-contest odds ranking of 13th.
🇷🇸 Belgrade 2008
Next, we look back at the odds ahead of the 2008 contest. These odds were recorded from Paddy Power on April 23rd, 31 days before the final on May 24th.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7/2 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Dima Bilan – Believe | 1st |
| 2 | 9/2 | 🇷🇸 Serbia | Jelena Tomašević feat. Bora Dugić – Oro | 6th |
| 3 | 5/1 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | Dustin The Turkey – Irelande Douze Pointe | SF (15th) |
| 4 | 11/2 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Sirusho – Qele, Qele | 4th |
| 5 | 7/1 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Ani Lorak – Shady Lady | 2nd |
| 6 | 9/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Charlotte Perrelli – Hero | 18th |
| 7 | 18/1 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | Deep Zone and Balthazar – DJ, Take Me Away | SF (11th) |
| 8 | 20/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Kalomira – Secret Combination | 3rd |
| 9 | 20/1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Rodolfo Chikilicuatre – Baila El Chiki-Chiki | 16th |
| 10 | 22/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Sébastian Tellier – Divine | 19th |
| 11 | 25/1 | 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina | Laka – Pokušaj | 10th |
| 12 | 25/1 | 🇱🇻 Latvia | Pirates Of The Sea – Wolves Of The Sea | 12th |
| 13 | 25/1 | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | Mor ve Ötesi – Deli | 7th |
| 14 | 25/1 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Paolo Meneguzzi – Era Stupendo | SF (13th) |
| 15 | 25/1 | 🇷🇴 Romania | Nico and Vlad – Pe-o Margine de Lume | 20th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
Eventual winners Russia were long-term favourites back in 2008. Although they were consistently under pressure from Armenia, Serbia and Ukraine who all went on to finish in the top six. Suprisingly, Ireland was also amongst that chasing pack. Dustin The Turkey had received substantial media coverage across Europe, and especially across the UK and Ireland where this betting agency is based. In the end, that coverage did not turn into votes and Ireland failed to make the final.
Returning Eurovision winner Charlotte Perrelli did not quite live up to expectations either, as Sweden required the jury wildcard to make it through the semi-final. “Hero” went on to finish 18th, well down on its odds ranking of 6th. Bulgaria and Switzerland were both considered amongst the front-runners but failed to make it out of the semi-finals. Yet, Greece exceeded expectations as Kalomira battled for victory at the end of the Saturday show.
🇷🇺 Moscow 2009
Next, we look back at the odds ahead of the 2009 contest. These odds were recorded from Paddy Power on April 7th, 39 days before the final on May 16th.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6/4 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Alexander Rybak – Fairytale | 1st |
| 2 | 9/2 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Sakis Rouvas – This Is Our Night | 7th |
| 3 | 8/1 | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | Hadise – Düm Tek Tek | 4th |
| 4 | 8/1 | 🇲🇪 Montenegro | Andrea Demirović – Just Get Out Of My Life | SF (11th) |
| 5 | 10/1 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | AySel and Arash – Always | 3rd |
| 6 | 12/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Malena Ernman – La Voix | 21st |
| 7 | 14/1 | 🇲🇹 Malta | Chiara – What If We? | 22nd |
| 8 | 18/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Jade Ewen – It’s My Time | 5th |
| 9 | 25/1 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Urban Symphony – Rändajad | 6th |
| 10 | 25/1 | 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina | Regina – Bistra Voda | 9th |
| 11 | 25/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Patricia Kaas – Et S’il Fallait Le Faire | 8th |
| 12 | 25/1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Soraya – La Noche Es Para Mí (The Night Is For Me) | 24th |
| 13 | 25/1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Anastasiya Prikhodko – Mamo | 11th |
| 14 | 33/1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Waldo’s People – Lose Control | 25th |
| 15 | 33/1 | 🇮🇸 Iceland | Yohanna – Is It True? | 2nd |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 67% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
Norway were clear favourites in 2009 with only Greece considered any sort of real opposition. Indeed, Norway went on to secure a record-breaking victory. On the other hand, Greece slightly underperformed against expectations. The main talking point here is Montenegro‘s failure to qualify. The country had yet to qualify as an independent nation but Andrea Demirović was one of the most fancied entries of the year. However, performing first in her semi-final could have played a significant part in Montenegro agonisingly missing out on the first qualification by one place.
Yohanna of Iceland was the breakthrough success of the contest, placing a strong second despite being fancied as a mid-table finalist at best. On the other hand, Sweden‘s Malena Ernman and Malta‘s star artist Chiara didn’t live up to expectations and finished in the bottom 5 of the final. Nevertheless, overall the odds predicted 2009 much better than 2007 and 2008. Was this due to the implementation of the jury vote? Perhaps it was a result of Eurovision becoming an increasingly bigger deal on the Internet with more information more easily obtainable? Maybe we will find some answers as we continue our journey.
Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…
