🇳🇴 Oslo 2010
Next, we look back at the odds ahead of the 2010 contest. These odds were recorded from William Hill on May 6th, 23 days before the final on May 29th. Only the top 10 ranked countries were recorded in this instance.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5/2 | 🇩🇪 Germany | Lena – Satellite | 1st |
| 2 | 5/2 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | Safura – Drip Drop | 5th |
| 3 | 8/1 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Chanée & N’evergreen – In A Moment Like This | 4th |
| 4 | 8/1 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Harel Skaat – Milim | 14th |
| 5 | 14/1 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Eva Rivas – Apricot Stone | 7th |
| 6 | 16/1 | 🇭🇷 Croatia | Feminnem – Lako Je Sve | SF (13th) |
| 7 | 20/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Didrik Solli-Tangen – My Heart Is Yours | 20th |
| 8 | 22/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Anna Bergendahl – This Is My Life | SF (11th) |
| 9 | 25/1 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | Niamh Kavanagh – It’s For You | 23rd |
| 10 | 28/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Giorgos Alkaios and Friends – OPA | 8th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 50% of the eventual top 10 at Eurovision placed inside the top 10 of the odds.
Germany and Azerbaijan were clear betting leaders in 2010. The former matched that expectation by taking the victory. Azerbaijan may have been able to put up a close fight but was drawn to open the show whereas Lena performed four songs from the end. Two outsiders completed the top three with Türkiye and Romania not fancied at all prior to the contest. We also saw two key favourites from Croatia and Sweden fail to qualify for the final.
Furthermore, there was an under-performance from returning Eurovision winner Niamh Kavanagh for Ireland. When factoring in this result, plus Croatia’s returning artist Feminnem and Sweden’s returning winner Charlotte Perrelli in 2008 who both also failed to live up to their odds, it does seem that there is a tendency for returning artists to be over-hyped by betting odds. Both Sakis Rouvas and Chiara would also fit this pattern in 2009.
🇩🇪 Düsseldorf 2011
Now it’s time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2011 contest. These odds were recorded from Paddy Power on April 24th, 20 days before the final on May 14th.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Amaury Vassili – Sognu | 15th |
| 2 | 13/2 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Getter Jaani – Rockefeller Street | 24th |
| 3 | 7/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Blue – I Can | 11th |
| 4 | 8/1 | 🇭🇺 Hungary | Kati Wolf – What About My Dreams? | 22nd |
| 5 | 10/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Eric Saade – Popular | 3rd |
| 6 | 10/1 | 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina | Dino Merlin – Love In Rewind | 6th |
| 7 | 12/1 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | Ell & Nikki – Running Scared | 1st |
| 8 | 12/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Stella Mwangi – Haba Haba | SF (17th) |
| 9 | 12/1 | 🇩🇪 Germany | Lena – Taken By A Stranger | 10th |
| 10 | 20/1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Alexej Vorobjov – Get You | 16th |
| 11 | 20/1 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | Jedward – Lipstick | 8th |
| 12 | 20/1 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | A Friend In London – New Tomorrow | 5th |
| 13 | 33/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Raphael Gualazzi – Madness Of Love | 2nd |
| 14 | 40/1 | 🇷🇴 Romania | Hotel FM – Change | 17th |
| 15 | 40/1 | 🇵🇱 Poland | Magdalena Tul – Jestem | SF (19th) |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 7th in the odds.
- 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
2011 is often deemed to be one of the most open contests in the recent decades and the statistics certainly prove this. Only Sweden lived up to the pre-contest odds of being a contender. Whereas the other countries amongst the top 5 favourites all failed to make the top 10. While Estonia and Hungary failing to break out of the bottom 5 in the final would’ve shocked many bookmakers, Norway‘s failure to qualify by some distance is the ultimate overestimation in the odds this time around.
Going against recent patterns, Germany‘s returning winner Lena was the 9th favourite to win and finished 10th. We have already discovered that returning artists tend to be over-predicted. However, with Lena returning immediately after her first appearance, perhaps the hype around her wasn’t quite as significant as it would’ve been if she returned a few years later on. Furthermore, fans probably realised that two wins in a row for the same artist do seem quite an unlikely outcome.
🇦🇿 Baku 2012
Next up, it’s time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2012 contest. These odds were recorded from Sky Bet on April 25th, 31 days before the final on May 26th.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/4 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Loreen – Euphoria | 1st |
| 2 | 8/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Nina Zilli – L’amore è femmina (Out Of Love) | 9th |
| 3 | 10/1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Buranovskiye Babushki – Party For Everybody | 2nd |
| 4 | 11/1 | 🇷🇸 Serbia | Željko Joksimović – Nije Ljubav Stvar | 3rd |
| 5 | 14/1 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Soluna Samay – Should’ve Known Better | 23rd |
| 6 | 14/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Engelbert Humperdinck – Love Will Set You Free | 25th |
| 7 | 16/1 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | Jedward – Waterline | 19th |
| 8 | 18/1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Pastora Soler – Quédate Conmigo (Stay With Me) | 10th |
| 9 | 20/1 | 🇩🇪 Germany | Roman Lob – Standing Still | 8th |
| 10 | 20/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Tooji – Stay | 26th |
| 11 | 22/1 | 🇮🇸 Iceland | Greta Salóme and Jónsi – Never Forget | 20th |
| 12 | 25/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Eleftheria Eleftheriou – Aphrodisiac | 17th |
| 13 | 28/1 | 🇷🇴 Romania | Mandinga – Zaleilah | 12th |
| 14 | 28/1 | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | Can Bonomo – Love Me Back | 7th |
| 15 | 33/1 | 🇨🇾 Cyprus | Ivi Adamou – La La Love | 16th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
Sweden were runaway favourites. Thus, it was, therefore, no surprise Loreen secured a landslide victory in Baku. Russia and Serbia were both tipped to be amongst the front-runners and both finished in the top 3. Most notably, the other top 6 finishers at Eurovision, Azerbaijan, Albania and Estonia were nowhere to be seen in the top 15. All three were powerful ballads which many agree benefited from live performances. Therefore, maybe this isn’t such a surprise.
Ireland is the latest to fall into the trap of an overhyped returning artist as Jedward fell way below expectations with their second entry in as many years. Denmark and the United Kingdom were the other countries who failed to live up to their odds. With the very well-known Engelbert Humperdinck representing the latter, people perhaps expected that name power and the subsequent media coverage to translate into votes.
Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…
