🇸🇪 Malmö 2013
Next up, it’s time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2013 contest. These odds were recorded from Oddschecker on April 18th, 30 days before the final on May 18th.
It is important to note that this is the first recording used from Oddschecker. With this website displaying only the best possible odds from a variety of different bookmakers, the range between the odds in the top 15 is much larger. If just a single bookmaker was recorded as in previous years, it is likely the range would be similar to what we have seen between 2007 and 2012.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6/4 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Emmelie de Forest – Only Teardrops | 1st |
| 2 | 8/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Margaret Berger – I Feed You My Love | 4th |
| 3 | 12/1 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Zlata Ognevich – Gravity | 3rd |
| 4 | 16/1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Dina Garipova – What If | 5th |
| 5 | 16/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Robin Stjernberg – You | 14th |
| 6 | 19/1 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | Anouk – Birds | 9th |
| 7 | 25/1 | 🇩🇪 Germany | Cascada – Glorious | 21st |
| 8 | 25/1 | 🇬🇪 Georgia | Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani – Waterfall | 15th |
| 9 | 25/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Marco Mengoni – L’Essenziale | 7th |
| 10 | 33/1 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | Farid Mammadov – Hold Me | 2nd |
| 11 | 40/1 | 🇸🇲 San Marino | Valentina Monetta – Crisalide (Vola) | SF (11th) |
| 12 | 50/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Bonnie Tyler – Believe In Me | 19th |
| 13 | 66/1 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | Ryan Dolan – Only Love Survives | 26th |
| 14 | 66/1 | 🇧🇾 Belarus | Alyona Lanskaya – Solayoh | 16th |
| 15 | 75/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Koza Mostra feat. Agathon Iakovidis – Alcohol Is Free | 6th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 80% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 67% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
This time around Denmark were the runaway favourites and scored a fairly easy victory. The odds were more reliable than ever in 2013, with only Azerbaijan of the eventual top 5 finishers not amongst the top 5 in the odds. Farid’s stage performance is often considered a key reason behind the success of Hold Me. This was, of course, a factor that wouldn’t have been known about the month before. One of the most notable talking points here was San Marino‘s failure to qualify. Fan favourite Valentina Monetta was another returning artist to be over-predicted by the odds. Although “Crisalide (Vola)” was a much more competitive entry than “The Social Network Song” was a year earlier.
The other major talking point was the under-performance of Germany. Cascada was the most well-known act prior the contest alongside the United Kingdom‘s Bonnie Tyler and received significant media coverage particularly in Western Europe where the majority of these bookmakers are based. Both of these acts failed to live up to expectations. When taking into account Engelbert’s performance in 2012, it seems that gamblers are wrongly associating media coverage and artist popularity with good results. After all, it is a song contest!
🇩🇰 Copenhagen 2014
Next up, it’s time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2014 contest. These odds were recorded from Oddschecker on April 7th, 33 days before the final on May 10th.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6/4 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Aram MP3 – Not Alone | 4th |
| 2 | 11/2 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Sanna Nielsen – Undo | 3rd |
| 3 | 12/1 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Basim – Cliché Love Song | 9th |
| 4 | 12/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Carl Espen – Silent Storm | 8th |
| 5 | 18/1 | 🇭🇺 Hungary | András Kállay-Saunders – Running | 5th |
| 6 | 20/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Molly – Children Of The Universe | 17th |
| 7 | 20/1 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Mariya Yaremchuk – Tick-Tock | 6th |
| 8 | 20/1 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | Dilara Kazimova – Start A Fire | 22nd |
| 9 | 25/1 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Axel Hirsoux – Mother | SF (14th) |
| 10 | 25/1 | 🇷🇴 Romania | Paula Seling & OVI – Miracle | 12th |
| 11 | 40/1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Tolmachevy Sisters – Shine | 7th |
| 12 | 66/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Emma Marrone – La Mia Città | 21st |
| 13 | 66/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Freaky Fortune feat. RiskyKidd – Rise Up | 20th |
| 14 | 66/1 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Mei Finegold – Same Heart | SF (14th) |
| 15 | 66/1 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | Can-Linn feat. Kasey Smith – Heartbeat | SF (12th) |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed outside the top 15 in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
2014 has become the go-to contest when it comes to arguing that odds are not always correct. Both Austria and The Netherlands were outside the top 15 of the odds a month prior to them finishing top 2 in Copenhagen. As such, the live performances of the Austrian and Dutch entries have become leading examples in how to perfectly stage a Eurovision entry. As the years have progressed, stages have offered more and more options for delegations to enhance their songs. This is something bookmakers cannot predict and 2014 was the first year they were truly stung.
Elsewhere, Belgium was the key underperformer as Axel Hirsoux failed to progress from his semi-final. Even though these odds are for victory, they perhaps suggested that Ireland and Israel were also expected to make it to the grand final. Arguably the live performance and running order draw respectively led to the failure of two fan favourites.
🇦🇹 Vienna 2015
Now it’s time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2015 contest. These odds were recorded from Oddschecker on April 25th, 28 days before the final on May 23rd.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6/4 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Måns Zelmerlöw – Heroes | 1st |
| 2 | 7/2 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Il Volo – Grande Amore | 3rd |
| 3 | 5/1 | 🇦🇺 Australia | Guy Sebastian – Tonight Again | 5th |
| 4 | 10/1 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Elina Born & Stig Rästa – Goodbye To Yesterday | 7th |
| 5 | 25/1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät – Aina Mun Pitää | SF (16th) |
| 6 | 25/1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Polina Gagarina – A Million Voices | 2nd |
| 7 | 25/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Mørland & Debrah Scarlett – A Monster Like Me | 8th |
| 8 | 25/1 | 🇸🇮 Slovenia | Maraaya – Here For You | 14th |
| 9 | 33/1 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | Elnur Huseynov – Hour Of The Wolf | 12th |
| 10 | 50/1 | 🇮🇸 Iceland | Maria Olafs – Unbroken | SF (15th) |
| 11 | 50/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Electro Velvet – Still In Love With You | 24th |
| 12 | 50/1 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Loïc Nottet – Rhythm Inside | 4th |
| 13 | 66/1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Edurne – Amanecer | 21st |
| 14 | 66/1 | 🇦🇱 Albania | Elhaida Dani – I’m Alive | 17th |
| 15 | 80/1 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Genealogy – Face The Shadow | 16th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
The bookmakers were back on form for 2015, correctly installing Sweden as the slight favourite. Italy was expected to be in close contention and rightly so. Il Volo won the televote only to lose out due to a lower jury ranking. Russia and Belgium were both in and around the top 10 and both gained extra momentum once we set foot in Vienna, something that wouldn’t have been known in April.
The main talking point in 2015 was the shock elimination of Finland in the semi-finals. Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät was the act with the most pre-contest media coverage across Europe and the bookmakers responded accordingly. However, like with Cascada, Bonnie Tyler and Engelbert Humperdinck in recent years, the media coverage did not translate into success at the contest.
Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…
