🇸🇪 Stockholm 2016
It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2016 contest. These odds were recorded from Oddschecker on April 13th, 31 days before the final on May 14th.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7/4 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Sergey Lazarev – You Are The Only One | 3rd |
| 2 | 13/2 | 🇫🇷 France | Amir – J’ai cherché | 6th |
| 3 | 11/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Frans – If I Were Sorry | 5th |
| 4 | 14/1 | 🇦🇺 Australia | Dami Im – Sound Of Silence | 2nd |
| 5 | 20/1 | 🇲🇹 Malta | Ira Losco – Walk On Water | 12th |
| 6 | 20/1 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Jamala – 1944 | 1st |
| 7 | 22/1 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Iveta Mukuchyan – LoveWave | 7th |
| 8 | 22/1 | 🇱🇻 Latvia | Justs – Heartbeat | 15th |
| 9 | 25/1 | 🇷🇸 Serbia | Sanja Vučić ZAA – Goodbye (Shelter) | 18th |
| 10 | 33/1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Barei – Say Yay! | 22nd |
| 11 | 35/1 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | Poli Genova – If Love Was A Crime | 4th |
| 12 | 40/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Francesca Michielin – No Degree Of Separation | 16th |
| 13 | 45/1 | 🇭🇷 Croatia | Nina Kraljić – Lighthouse | 23rd |
| 14 | 50/1 | 🇵🇱 Poland | Michał Szpak – Color Of Your Life | 8th |
| 15 | 50/1 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | Douwe Bob – Slow Down | 11th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 6th in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
Since 2007, 2016 is the most predictable contest so far according to the odds. 11 of the top 15 at Eurovision were placed inside the top 15 of the odds a month prior to the contest. Nevertheless, Ukraine‘s eventual victory wasn’t quite on the horizon with the odds seemingly suggesting Jamala be more of an each-way contender rather than an outright winner. Malta‘s Ira Losco is the next returning artist to have been overhyped by the odds. Although for a change, Poli Genova’s return for Bulgaria was under-predicted by the odds and surprised many by going top 5 despite being a fan favourite.
The biggest positive surprises last year were the top 10 finishes for Lithuania and Belgium. Neither Donny Montell or Laura Tesoro was in the top 15 of the odds. Nevertheless, their slick, professional and upbeat performances wowed audiences on the night to overachieve against their odds!
🇺🇦 Kyiv 2017
It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2017 contest in Kyiv. These odds were recorded from Oddschecker on April 21st, 22 days before the final on May 13th.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13/10 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Francesco Gabbani – Occidentali’s Karma | 6th |
| 2 | 13/2 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | Kristian Kostov – Beautiful Mess | 2nd |
| 3 | 9/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Robin Bengtsson – I Can’t Go On | 5th |
| 4 | 14/1 | 🇵🇹 Portugal | Salvador Sobral – Amar Pelos Dois | 1st |
| 5 | 20/1 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Blanche – City Lights | 4th |
| 6 | 33/1 | 🇦🇺 Australia | Isaiah – Don’t Come Easy | 9th |
| 7 | 33/1 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Artsvik – Fly With Me | 18th |
| 8 | 40/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Alma – Requiem | 12th |
| 9 | 50/1 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | Dihaj – Skeletons | 14th |
| 10 | 50/1 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Anja – Where I Am | 20th |
| 11 | 50/1 | 🇭🇺 Hungary | Joci Pápai – Origo | 8th |
| 12 | 66/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Demy – This Is Love | 19th |
| 13 | 80/1 | 🇷🇴 Romania | Ilinca ft. Alex Florea – Yodel It! | 7th |
| 14 | 100/1 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | OG3NE – Lights And Shadows | 11th |
| 15 | 100/1 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Koit Toome & Laura – Verona | SF (14th) |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 4th in the odds.
- 80% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
Stockholm 2016’s odds were the first to correctly predict 11 of the top 15 finishers. Nevertheless, Kyiv 2017 managed the exact same feat while also predicting four of the top 5 – one more than Stockholm’s pre-contest odds predicted. It seemed that the contest really was becoming more predictable…
However, clear favourites Italy were not able to live up to the hype placing 6th in the grand final. The success of the rest of the top 5 was foreseen, with the clear exception of Moldova. Indeed, Sunstroke Project was available at over 100/1 to win the contest and could’ve been a great each-way bet for those who believed in “Hey Mamma”. Portugal‘s record-breaking victory wasn’t always destined to be on the cards, with Salvador only 4th favourite to win prior to rehearsals kicking off.
Norway‘s JOWST was never considered to be in contention, so the 10th place for “Grab the Moment” would have been a positive surprise for the Norwegians. On the other hand, it was Koit Toome & Laura from Estonia, both returnees to Eurovision, who was the fan favourites to fall. The jury was not impressed with Verona in the second semi-final, ultimately causing the biggest shock from the 2017 semi-finals.
🇵🇹 Lisbon 2018
It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2018 contest in Lisbon. These odds were recorded from Skybet on April 16th, 26 days before the final on May 12th.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7/4 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Netta – TOY | 1st |
| 2 | 11/2 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | EQUINOX – Bones | 14th |
| 3 | 13/2 | 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | Mikolas Josef – Lie To Me | 6th |
| 4 | 8/1 | 🇦🇺 Australia | Jessica Mauboy – We Got Love | 20th |
| 5 | 9/1 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Elina Nechayeva – La Forza | 8th |
| 6 | 16/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Benjamin Ingrosso – Dance You Off | 7th |
| 7 | 20/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Madame Monsieur – Mercy | 13th |
| 8 | 20/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Alexander Rybak – That’s How You Write A Song | 15th |
| 9 | 25/1 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Sennek – A Matter Of Time | SF (12th) |
| 10 | 25/1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Amaia & Alfred – Tu Canción | 23rd |
| 11 | 28/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Yianna Terzi – Oniro Mou | SF (14th) |
| 12 | 33/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro – Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente | 5th |
| 13 | 40/1 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | Waylon – Outlaw In ‘Em | 18th |
| 14 | 50/1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Saara Aalto – Monsters | 25th |
| 15 | 66/1 | 🇦🇹 Austria | Cesár Sampson – Nobody But You | 3rd |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
After Stockholm and Kyiv, two of the most predictable contests in memory in terms of similarities to the pre-contest betting odds, Lisbon was arguably one of the most unpredictable. Whilst Israel was correctly predicted as the winner, the rest of the eventual top five were much further down the odds.
Most notably we must point out Cyprus and Germany, neither of which were inside the top 15 of the betting odds less than a month before the Eurovision 2018 grand final. This is even more extraordinary when you consider that on the day of the final, Eleni Foureira was even favourite to take the crown! Both of these acts had arguably two of the strongest stage shows in Lisbon, with Eleni’s outrageous energy and Michael’s emotional LED screen.
Austria‘s Cesár Sampson was a third name to add to the list of top 5 shockers, only 15th in the odds a month before his eventual top three finish. No one expected Austria’s jury victory in Lisbon, and this largely was the cause of Austria’s podium placing.
Belgium and Greece, both in and around the top 10 of the odds, both failed to make it out of the so-called “bloodbath” that was the first semi-final in 2018. Although lacklustre stage presentations from both meant that it was perhaps the unfancied ZiBBZ from Switzerland that became the most surprising non-qualifiers.
Our journey down memory lane
