🇮🇱 Tel Aviv 2019
It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2019 contest in Tel Aviv. These odds were recorded from Eurovision World on April 13th, 35 days before the final on May 18th. As EurovisionWorld is a comparison site, we’ve taken the shortest odds available for each country.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3/2 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | Duncan Laurence – Arcade | 1st |
| 2 | 19/4 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Luca Hänni – She Got Me | 4th |
| 3 | 5/1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Sergey Lazarev – Scream | 3rd |
| 4 | 13/2 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Mahmood – Soldi | 2nd |
| 5 | 7/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | John Lundvik – Too Late For Love | 5th |
| 6 | 12/1 | 🇮🇸 Iceland | Hatari – Hatrið mun sigra | 10th |
| 7 | 20/1 | 🇨🇾 Cyprus | Tamta – Replay | 13th |
| 8 | 25/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky | 6th |
| 9 | 25/1 | 🇵🇹 Portugal | Conan Osíris – Telemóveis | SF (15th) |
| 10 | 28/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Katerine Duska – Better Love | 21st |
| 11 | 28/1 | 🇲🇹 Malta | Michela – Chameleon | 14th |
| 12 | 33/1 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Srbuk – Walking Out | SF (16th) |
| 13 | 33/1 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Leonora – Love Is Forever | 12th |
| 14 | 33/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Bilal Hassani – Roi | 16th |
| 15 | 33/1 | 🇸🇮 Slovenia | Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi | 15th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 100% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
Tel Aviv 2019 was arguably the most predictable contest of those analysed so far in this article. For the first time, the odds predicted the top 5 nations with 100% accuracy… and almost in order to with just Switzerland and Italy swapping places in the final results.
The biggest surprise of 2019 was North Macedonia‘s Tamara Todevska whose victory in the jury vote took her to an impressive seventh place for her nation, a best finish for the Balkan nation. Also making the top 10 despite not featuring in the top 15 of the odds a month before were eighth-placed Chingiz from Azerbaijan and ninth-placed Kate Miller-Heidke from Australia. Interestingly, both of these nations were amongst those most praised for their innovative staging performances, something that couldn’t have been anticipated prior to rehearsals.
On the other hand, Armenia and Portugal were the nations fancied to do well that failed to qualify for the final in Tel Aviv. Whilst Srbuk from Armenia could’ve suffered from opening the second semi-final, Portugal’s Conan Osíris had no such disadvantage. Both “Walking Out” and “Telemóveis” were amongst the entries most unique in style and perhaps dark and inaccessible staging concepts were too much for the Eurovision voters to enjoy. Greece‘s underperformance relative to the odds could also be linked to these reasons, with the artistry and quirkiness of “Better Love” finishing towards the lower end in the final.
🇪🇺 Eurovision 2020
It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the eventually cancelled 2020 contest. These odds were recorded from EurovisionWorld on March 18th, the day of the contest’s cancellation. As EurovisionWorld is a comparison site, we’ve taken the shortest odds available for each country excluding those bookmakers that hadn’t updated the odds in the days preceding the cancellation.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4/1 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | VICTORIA – Tears Getting Sober |
| 2 | 4/1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Little Big – Uno |
| 3 | 4/1 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Gjon’s Tears – Répondez-moi |
| 4 | 22/5 | 🇱🇹 Lithuania | The Roop – On Fire |
| 5 | 9/2 | 🇮🇸 Iceland | Daði og Gagnamagnið – Think About Things |
| 6 | 11/2 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Diodato – Fai Rumore |
| 7 | 8/1 | 🇩🇪 Germany | Ben Dolic – Violent Thing |
| 8 | 9/1 | 🇷🇴 Romania | ROXEN – Alcohol You |
| 9 | 10/1 | 🇲🇹 Malta | Destiny – All Of My Love |
| 10 | 12/1 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | Efendi – Cleopatra |
| 11 | 18/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | The Mamas – Move |
| 12 | 19/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Ulrikke – Attention |
| 13 | 20/1 | 🇦🇺 Australia | Montaigne – Don’t Break Me |
| 14 | 25/1 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Ben & Tan – YES |
| 15 | 25/1 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | Jeangu Macrooy – Grow |
Analysis
Whilst we will not include this contest in our analysis for obvious reasons, it is fascinating to look back at what could have been!
🇳🇱 Rotterdam 2021
It’s now time to look forward to the 2021 contest in Rotterdam and record the odds ready for analysis this time next year! These odds were recorded from bet365 on March 29th, 54 days before the final on May 22nd.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10/3 | 🇲🇹 Malta | Destiny – Je Me Casse | 7th |
| 2 | 10/3 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’Univers | 3rd |
| 3 | 13/2 | 🇫🇷 France | Barbara Pravi – Voilà | 2nd |
| 4 | 8/1 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old | 11th |
| 5 | 9/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Måneskin – Zitti E Buoni | 1st |
| 6 | 11/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Tusse – Voices | 14th |
| 7 | 14/1 | 🇮🇸 Iceland | Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years | 4th |
| 8 | 14/1 | 🇱🇹 Lithuania | The Roop – Discoteque | 8th |
| 9 | 22/1 | 🇨🇾 Cyprus | Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo | 16th |
| 10 | 33/1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Blind Channel – Dark Side | 6th |
| 11 | 33/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | TIX – Fallen Angel | 18th |
| 12 | 40/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Stefania – Last Dance | 10th |
| 13 | 40/1 | 🇲🇩 Moldova | Natalia Gordienko – Sugar | 13th |
| 14 | 40/1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Manizha – Russian Woman | 9th |
| 15 | 40/1 | 🇸🇲 San Marino | Senhit – Adrenalina | 22th |
- The winning entry was placed 5th in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 80% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
Interestingly, although 2021 was seen as unpredictable at the time (and indeed, the top 3 contenders were close in the table above), the bookmakers actually predicted 80% of the eventual top 15, the best performance since the beginning of our analysis. It was also the third year (after 2012 and 2016) in which no song from the top 15 of the bookmakers failed to qualify to the final (with only two automatic qualifiers in the list).
The biggest surprise from these odds was the absence of Ukraine, who was outside the top 15 at the time but managed a 15th place. Like many entries before, it was likely a question of staging: when the first rehearsals came around, odds shortened dramatically for “Shum”. Italy was not a surprise winner at the end of Eurovision week, but a month before, it was still considered a dark horse, sitting in 6th place with the bookmakers.
In terms of over-prediction and overhype, Bulgaria fell from the position of contender to outside the final’s top 10, but San Marino was also an example. Although not placed in the top 10 by the odds, the presence of Flo Rida created a hype around the song that did not live up in the actual results.
Our journey down memory lane
