🇮🇹 Turin 2022
It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2022 contest in Turin. These odds were recorded from EurovisionWorld on April 11th, 33 days before the Eurovision final on May 14th. As EurovisionWorld is a comparison site, we’ve taken the shortest odds available for each country.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5/6 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Kalush Orchestra – Stefania | 1st |
| 2 | 11/4 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Mahmood & Blanco – Brividi | 6th |
| 3 | 7/2 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Cornelia Jakobs – Hold me closer | 4th |
| 4 | 12/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Sam Ryder – Spaceman | 2nd |
| 5 | 13/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord – Die Together | 8th |
| 6 | 15/1 | 🇵🇱 Poland | Ochman – River | 12th |
| 7 | 16/1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Chanel – Slomo | 3rd |
| 8 | 22/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Subwoolfer – Give That Wolf a Banana | 10th |
| 9 | 24/1 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | S10 – De Diepte | 11th |
| 10 | 24/1 | 🇵🇹 Portugal | Maro – Saudade, Saudade | 9th |
| 11 | 33/1 | 🇦🇺 Australia | Sheldon Riley – Not The Same | 15th |
| 12 | 33/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Alvan & Ahez – Fulenn | 24th |
| 13 | 40/1 | 🇷🇸 Serbia | Konstrakta – In Corpore Sano | 5th |
| 14 | 49/1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | The Rasmus – Jezebel | 21st |
| 15 | 50/1 | 🇨🇾 Cyprus | Andromache – Ela | SF (12th) |
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 80% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
2022 was, in some way, even more predictable than 2021: 12 out of the top 15 songs in the final were also in the bookmaker’s top 15 a month before. And the winner was easily predicted, with odds inferior to 1, once it was confirmed that Ukraine would participate despite the Russian invasion. In the end, “Stefania” landslided the televote, which ensured its victory.
The top 5 still kept some surprises. Spain may have been 7th with the bookmakers, there were real doubts about Chanel’s ability to appeal to the juries. The staging was not mysterious (it was clear the Benidorm Fest choregraphy would be kept), but its efficiency was not clear. In the end, juries ranked it higher than expected, and it almost reached the second place. Some even believe that without the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Spain would have won. Serbia was another surprise: the song may have been considered too “quirky” for the Eurovision public, but it ended up being distinctive and reached a 5th place.
Among the disapointments were Poland and Cyprus. “River” did not reach the top 10 eventually, and “Andromache” stayed in the semi-final, failing to make an impact. Italy was also affected, finishing 6th at home, far from being a potential dark horse for victory. In addition to the “overprediction” affecting returning artists (in this case, Mahmood), it can also be explained by the weaker vocals from the duo, who had toured extensively in the weeks before the rehearsals.
🇺🇦/🇬🇧 Liverpool 2023
It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2023 contest in Liverpool. These odds were recorded from Eurovisionworld on April 10th 2023, 33 days before the final. As EurovisionWorld is a comparison site, we’ve taken the shortest odds available for each country.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4/5 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Loreen – Tatoo | 1st |
| 2 | 10/3 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Käärijä – Cha Cha Cha | 2nd |
| 3 | 5/1 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Tvorchi – Heart of Steel | 6th |
| 4 | 10/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Alessandra – Queen of Kings | 5th |
| 5 | 12/1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Blanca Paloma – Eaea | 17th |
| 6 | 20/1 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Noa Kirel – Unicorn | 3rd |
| 7 | 20/1 | 🇦🇹 Austria | Teya & Salena – Who the hell is Edgar? | 15th |
| 8 | 22/1 | 🇨🇿 Czechia | Vesna – My Sister’s Crown | 10th |
| 9 | 25/1 | 🇫🇷 France | La Zarra – Évidemment | 16th |
| 10 | 25/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Mae Muller – I Wrote a Song | 25th |
| 11 | 33/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Marco Mengoni – Due Vite | 4th |
| 12 | 40/1 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Remo Forrer – Watergun | 20th |
| 13 | 40/1 | 🇬🇪 Georgia | Iru – Echo | SF (12th) |
| 14 | 40/1 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Brunette – Future Lover | 14th |
| 15 | 40/1 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Alika – Bridges | 8th |
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 66% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
Compared to 2021 and 2022, the 2023 contest was one of the least predictable ones, at least with its top 15. The winner and the runner-up were correctly predicted by the bookmakers, but the rest was a bit more blurry, with a third of the actual top 15 not making it into the top a month in advance.
Italy managed a top 5 finish despite being much further down in the odds, in 11th place. It followed a path similar to their 2018 entry, and for once a returning artist (Marco Mengoni) was actually under-predicted by the bookmakers. But the biggest surprise was Belgium: Gustaph was outside the top 15, and saw a strong shortening in the odds closer in time to the contest. Its queer esthetic worked wonders and pushed “Because of You” to the 7th place, with a strong jury support. Estonia, on a smaller scale, also managed to do much better than expected.
On the other hand, Spain, the United Kingdom and Georgia underperformed. “Eaea” did not have the expected impact, and fell outside the top 10, while “Echo” failed to qualify. Mae Muller was another example of British act being potentially overhyped by bookmakers that are mainly based in the UK and Ireland, with the additional element of being a “host entry”, creating a fake sense of home advantage. The live performance did not live up to the expectations, unfortunately.
🇸🇪 Malmö 2024
It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2024 contest in Malmö. These odds were recorded from Eurovisionworld on April 8th, 33 days before the final. As EurovisionWorld is a comparison site, we’ve taken the shortest odds available for each country.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/5 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Nemo – The Code | 1st |
| 2 | 3/1 | 🇭🇷 Croatia | Baby Lasagna – Rim Tim Tagi Dim | 2nd |
| 3 | 4/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Angelina Mango – La Noia | 7th |
| 4 | 28/5 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | Joost – Europapa | DQ (SF: 2nd) |
| 5 | 6/1 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | alyona alyona & Jerry Heil – Teresa & Maria | 3rd |
| 6 | 12/1 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Mustii – Before the Party’s Over | SF (13th) |
| 7 | 16/1 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Marina Satti – Zari | 11th |
| 8 | 16/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Slimane – Mon Amour | 4th |
| 9 | 18/1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Windows95man – No Rules! | 19th |
| 10 | 20/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Olly – Dizzy | 18th |
| 11 | 21/1 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Eden Golan – Hurricane | 5th |
| 12 | 25/1 | 🇦🇹 Austria | Kaleen – We Will Rave | 24th |
| 13 | 26/1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Marcus & Martinus – Unforgettable | 9th |
| 14 | 27/1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | Gåte – Ulveham | 25th |
| 15 | 31/1 | 🇦🇲 Armenia | Ladaniva – Jako | 8th |
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
- 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.
While Turin 2022 was more predictable than Rotterdam 2021, Malmö 2024 ended up going on a downwards trend after Liverpool 2023. Only 60% of the eventual top 5 and top 15 was placed inside the same top a month in advance.
Once again, though, the winner was correctly guessed. In reality, Switzerland had been a favourite during the promotion season for most bookmakers, but Croatia was the favourite until the end of March, and as Eurovision rehearsals began, and the two were very close (with odds of basically 2/1 and 3/1) during the promotion season. In the end, just as in 2023, the top 2 was correct.
The main surprise in the actual top 15 was of course Ireland : with only a Late Late Show staging to show for most of the season, and a very niche genre for their song, Bambie Thug was just below the top 15. Its odds started to shorten by mid-April and eventually they were much closer to its 6th place in the final, but it was clearly one of the revealation of the season, and especially of the first rehearsals. Another strong surprise was Israel, but the political discourse around its participation, and around the votes for the entry, made it an exceptionnal situation not helping predictions.
On the other hand, quite a few songs did not live up to the expectation of the bookmakers. Austria, Norway, and the United Kingdom most noticeably, with another example of a famour (British) artist being overhyped and overpredicted.
Then, there is of course the strange case of The Netherlands. Disqualified from the contest a few hours before the final, in an event that was not predictable, it does affect these statistics marginally. Considering the jury votes the Netherlands would have obtained (which can be determined from the detailed jury results) and the televote points they would potentially have received (having finished second in a televote-only semi-final), “Europapa” would have likely made it into the Top 15, and possibly into the top 5.
Now without further ado, it’s time to analyse all of the statistics we’ve collected over the past fourteen years and find out just how accurate bookmakers are in predicting the results in May…
Our journey down memory lane and our final analysis continues on the next page…
