🇨🇭 Basel 2025
It’s now time to look at the odds for the upcoming contest. These odds were recorded from Eurovisionworld on April 12th, 35 days before the final. As EurovisionWorld is a comparison site, we’ve taken the shortest odds available for each country.
| Rank | Odds | Country | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3/2 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | KAJ – Bara Bada Bastu |
| 2 | 9/4 | 🇦🇹 Austria | JJ – Wasted Love |
| 3 | 5/1 | 🇫🇷 France | Louane – Maman |
| 4 | 10/1 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Yuval Rafael – New Day Will Rise |
| 5 | 12/1 | 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | Claude – C’est la vie |
| 6 | 16/1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Erika Vikman – Ich Komme |
| 7 | 16/1 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Red Sebastian – Strobe Lights |
| 8 | 16/1 | 🇦🇱 Albania | Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm |
| 9 | 20/1 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Tommy Cash – Espresso macchiato |
| 10 | 25/1 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Ziferblat – Bird of Pray |
| 11 | 25/1 | 🇸🇲 San Marino | Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia |
| 12 | 28/1 | 🇨🇿 Czechia | Adonxs – Kiss Kiss Goodbye |
| 13 | 33/1 | 🇲🇹 Malta | Miriana Conte – Serving |
| 14 | 33/1 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Remember Monday – What The Hell Just Happened |
| 15 | 33/1 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Lucio Corsi – Volevo essere un duro |
Key findings
The mathematical stuff
It’s nice just to reminisce and look back at the past, but it’s also nice to try and make a couple of conclusions here and there! I’m not going to pretend to be any mathematical genius but I’ve plotted the percentages calculated below each chart in the paragraphs above into a graph.
The orange line shows what percentage of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds that year. The grey line shows what percentage of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds that year. The dotted red and black lines show the overall trends over the past 17 years regarding how accurate the top 5 and 15 of the odds have been in predicting the top 5 and top 15 finishers respectively in any order.
Odds have become increasingly more accurate indicators
Overall, this tells us that over the past seventeen years, odds-to-win have become increasingly reliable at predicting which countries will finish both inside the top 5 and those inside the top 15. This is shown by both trend lines trending upwards over the decade. However, after a very predictable 2019 for the top 5, and 2021-2023 for the top 15, the trend seems to have slowed down, and may be on the verge of reversing.
Taking the figures at face value, we can discover the following:
- 14 times out of 17, at least three of the top 5 in the odds a month prior the contest has finished in the top 5 at Eurovision.
- Excluding 2010 where the dataset was smaller, on all sixteen occasions more than half of the top 15 in the odds have gone on to finish in the top 15 at the contest.
- On only three occasions have the top 5 odds matched more than three entries in the eventual Eurovision top 5, in 2013, 2017 and 2019.
- However, only five times has the top 15 in the odds matched more than ten of the eventual top 15 finishers at Eurovision. Noticeably, this was in recent contests, in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2022.
Other observations
The two most notable patterns when it came to discovering which type of entries tended to underperform at Eurovision were those countries who were being represented by returning artists, and those being represented by famous artists with a strong media coverage around them.
Perhaps because Eurovision fans are already familiar with returning artists, they therefore pay their entries more attention then they would do otherwise. Returning artists often result in more fanfare on various media websites. Particularly the likes of Charlotte Perrelli, Niamh Kavanagh or Ira Losco who were previous winners and runner-ups returning for their nations.
As for media coverage, well-known artists are also susceptible to being overhyped in the odds. A well-known artist being selected for Eurovision immediately results in more media coverage, whether it be Blue, Engelbert Humperdinck or Cascada. This seems to immediately translate into more betting support than they should probably be getting, particularly when these acts are from Western European countries. As the bookmakers we are analysing here are largely based in Western Europe, these acts are likely to have more effect on the odds than a major star from an Eastern European country for example due to a lack of name recognition amongst the users of these betting agencies.
Let’s revisit in May
We look forward to revisiting these conclusions in May when we can compare the results from the 2025 contest with what we have discovered here. Will KAJ manage to be the fourth winner in a row to turn a lead in the odds into a Eurovision victory? If so, would JJ be the predicted runner-up, as Baby Lasagna and Kääarijä have been previously? The data
Do let us know in the comments section below or via our social media pages if you have any thoughts about all of these statistics! Were you surprised to see DJ Bobo topping the odds in 2007? Perhaps you’d forgotten Dustin The Turkey was deemed a potential winner in 2008? Had you also forgotten that Destiny was the favourite for most of the season in 2021? Make sure you visit us @ESCXTRA!
