Welcome back to XTRA Odds! Our ultimate look at the betting odds for the Eurovision Song Contest is back for 2025. In today’s XTRA Odds, we take a closer look at the odds right before the start of the first rehearsals, tomorrow.
How does this work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Belgium are noted as sixth favourites to win. They have odds of around 25/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €25 if Red Sebastian does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Basel. At the other end of the scale, you may find countries like Croatia. Marko Bošnjak finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 300/1, 400/1 and even further down for some bookmakers. If Marko were to win Eurovision 2023, you’d get €300 for every €1 you bet.
What are the current standings?
| Rank | Entry |
| 1 | 🇸🇪 Sweden |
| 2 | 🇦🇹 Austria |
| 3 | 🇫🇷 France |
| 4 | 🇮🇱 Israel |
| 5 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands |
| 6 | 🇧🇪 Belgium |
| 7 | 🇫🇮 Finland |
| 8 | 🇨🇿 Czechia |
| 9 | 🇪🇪 Estonia |
| 10 | 🇦🇱 Albania |
| 11 | 🇨🇾 Cyprus |
| 12 | 🇲🇹 Malta |
| 13 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine |
| 14 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom |
| 15 | 🇮🇹 Italy |
| 16 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland |
| 17 | 🇮🇪 Ireland |
| 18 | 🇦🇺 Australia |
| 19 | 🇬🇷 Greece |
| 20 | 🇸🇲 San Marino |
| 21 | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| 22 | 🇪🇦 Spain |
| 23 | 🇳🇴 Norway |
| 24 | 🇱🇹 Lithuania |
| 25 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan |
| 26 | 🇵🇱 Poland |
| 27 | 🇩🇰 Denmark |
| 28 | 🇸🇮 Slovenia |
| 29 | 🇷🇸 Serbia |
| 30 | 🇱🇺 Luxembourg |
| 31 | 🇵🇹 Portugal |
| 32 | 🇦🇲 Armenia |
| 33 | 🇮🇸 Iceland |
| 34 | 🇱🇻 Latvia |
| 35 | 🇬🇪 Georgia |
| 36 | 🇲🇪 Montenegro |
| 37 | 🇭🇷 Croatia |
These odds were taken from Eurovisionworld on May 2, at 5:20pm CEST.
Odds Analysis: 2 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not? Today, we’ll be providing you with our first analysis. It draws from comparisons with the odds as they have been taken for our “historical odds” analysis, as well as the evolution since the selection season.
So, what do we see currently in the odds?
- Sweden are the clear favourites, and have been so for most of the season. At first, it was Måns Zelmerlöw who drove these odds, and Sweden’s odds drifted a bit, putting it in second place for a day, after his defeat in the Melodifestivalen’s final. But it quickly appeared that KAJ was ready to take on the mantle, and their odds have been shortening ever since. The Fennoswede band is entering the Eurovision weeks as the solid favourites. They are the ones to beat.
- Austria, a clear second, has been drifting throughout the promotion season. JJ’s performances during the pre-parties have confirmed that he must be perfect vocally if he has to stand a chance, and he was not always perfect. The precedent of Amaury Vassili (France 2011), a favourite who went too big during his rehearsals and had no vocal power left for the actual shows, is also still very much present. And “Wasted Love” may lack the televote appeal required to win. A mysterious elements remain: the staging, with much being teased about it by JJ and his stage director Sergio Jaeen (who worked with Bambie Thug in 2024).
- The rest of the top 5, France, Israel and The Netherlands, have been in relatively stable positions, with odds drifting and shortening throughout the season with no strong variations
- Bookmakers have shown more and more interest towards other entries though, like Belgium, who led the odds until the beginning of February (thanks to either Mentissa or Red Sebastian), but then drifted to the 10th place, before slowly climbing back to 6th with shortening odds. Czechia has seen a similar journey, being high after the acoustic performance dropped during Malta’s national selection, before drifting after the actual reveal, and getting back to a respectable 8th position after the pre-parties. Adonxs’ performances have been selling the dance break, which was a source of doubts for many fans (and bettors). Switzerland has also risen in the ranks, despite a limited number of promotion appearances by Zoë.
- On the other hand of the spectrum, some countries like Italy or Germany have drifted and remain much lower in the ranks than they were during the selection season. Lucio Corsi’s entry does not have the appeal of previous Italian entries, and Tynna’s health issues have cast doubts about her ability to sing “Baller” in the best conditions in Basel. Lithuania have also seen a drift since the selection season, from 14th to 24th place, with more and more doubts cast on Katarsys’ qualifications prospect.
We will update these odds several times throughout the next two weeks, until the Grand Final, to help you understand how the markets react to rehearsals and live shows! Don’t forget to follow ESCXTRA during this intense period for the Eurovision community. We will be live blogging from Basel, bringing you the latest news from the Media centre, the arena, and the different animations of the host city!
