A grand total of 26 acts will be competing to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 in Basel tonight. The all important jury rehearsal took place on Friday night and, like on Monday and Wednesday, the team of the Eurovision Audience Poll was present outside the arena to ask the general public attending the show the burning question: Who was your favourite? The answer was a clear victory for Sweden’s KAJ.
KAJ remain the leaders ahead of tonight’s Grand Final
In this third edition of the Eurovision Audience Poll, run by a collective of five fan media platforms (ESC Insight, 12 Points From America, ESCXTRA, Eurovoix and That Eurovision Site), KAJ topped the poll with 245 votes, (11.8%). Once again showing why it’s top of the odds after also winning the Semi-Final 1 poll on Monday. Not far behind is Finland in second place. Erika Vikman backing up her victory in the Semif-Fnal 2 poll on Wednesday with 221 votes, (10.6%). Completing the podium is the Big Five country Spain, who amassed a total of 181 votes, (8.7%).
Despite only being three votes behind Erika on Wednesday, Austria’s JJ now finds himself sinking to a distant fourth in the Grand Final Poll. A surprising result for a country tipped for overall victory. Wasted Love received 161 votes, (7.7%).
Following on, we see fellow jury contender, France one vote behind (7.7%). Next, we see the crowd pleasers of the show, Germany (5.3^%), Netherlands (4.5%) and Albania (4.3%). The remainder of the top ten consisted of the televote magnates, Malta (4.1%) and Estonia (3.9%). The latter only narrowing making the top ten on count-back ahead of San Marino. The lowest placement for an automatic qualifier was the United Kingdom in nineteenth place with 1.6%).
As is typical for a crowd that wants to party, the ballads underperformed with the voting audience. At the bottom of the table are, Portugal (1.0%), Ukraine (0.7%) and Poland (0.7%). In a shock last place with 13 votes is Armenia (0.6%). Back in the Semi-Final 2 poll they were voted through as a safe qualifier.
Overall, the poll received 2085 votes. This equates to roughly a third of the overall audience in attendance at the show.
Analysing the Grand Final results
Compared to previous expectations from bookmakers, fans and the ESCXTRA.com Press Poll, there are some surprising conclusions. Comparing the two polls against the odds and social media trends tells us that the pathway to victory is still uncertain. There are three obvious challengers – Sweden, Austria and France, with Finland also lurking as an outside contender.
Sweden who are currently leading the odds, have topped both Audience Polls and shown its hand as the main competitor from the first Semi-Final. Meanwhile the runner-up in the odds, Austria found itself narrowly losing out in the second Semi-Final poll. Last night, JJ had to settle for fourth place in the poll for the Grand Final. The earlier slot in the running order may play a part in this.
The success story of every Press Poll and Audience Poll this week is undoubtedly, Finland. Tonight, Erika Vikman will be hoping that Finland’s recent history as a Eurovision power-house continues. So far, Finland has topped the Semi-Final 2 Press Poll and Audience Poll. Backing that up with a runner-up spot in both Grand Final polls. Thus, it is as an outsider due to its placement in the ‘Käärijä slot’ in the running order. The producers will always place a strong staging package and odds contender as late in the first half that they have drawn, as possible.
Another contender to consider is France. Louane who placed fifth in the Audience Poll and first in the Press Poll. The highest placing traditional ballad. If you take the Audience Poll as an indicator of the televote, it suggests there is an opportunity for a well performed and heartfelt ballad to cut through the noise and appeal to the voting viewers. Whilst the Press Poll shows Louane is very much in contention to win the jury vote. However, as a cautionary note. That long wait while waiting for France’s staging to be prepared, allows enough time for both jurors and televoters to dwell on their votes.
Although there’s a lot of variation between the results of the Press Poll and Audience Poll, one act they do both agree on is The Netherlands. Claude placed seventh in both. Even though he precedes Finland’s bold presentation, he remains consistent and has space to breathe in that mid-pack of the running order. Usually the jury candidates benefit from that not too early, not too late section of the running order around sixth to twelfth. Therefore Claude’s results this week show a very solid top ten is on the cards to make up for the disappointment The Netherlands face last year with the shock disqualification from the Grand Final.
One interesting discrepancy is Germany’s result. In the Audience Poll they placed sixth. However in the Press Poll it was almost last in 22nd place. Of course, it’s worth noting that German’s rank second in the ticket sales by country. Much of its audience success can be attributed to that data and its crowd pleasing nature. It will likely have a stronger showing in its televote compared to its jury score based on this.
Once again Spain dominate the poll. Last year, Nebulossa came sixth. This time around it’s a stronger showing for Melody, who placed third. Many pollsters on the ground reported that a large number of the respondents were Spanish. Spain are number five in the ticket purchase rankings. Meanwhile the bookies currently have Spain in contention for last place in the Grand Final. Are Spain destined for their usual polling and OGAE curse? Or are the bookies underestimating Spain somewhat. Especially given that is surrounded by multiple lower tempo songs before and after it.
Yet again, Ukraine struggles to find any impact in the Audience Poll, after their last place in the Press Poll. It is clear the diaspora are being put to the test here and Ukraine could have their lowest result since Under The Ladder which placed 17th in 2018.
Next we look at the battle of Balkans. With only Albania and Greece left standing they place Eighth and 17th respectively in the poll. Meanwhile they had a more impressive showing the Press Poll. Albania came fourth and Greece placed ninth. Perhaps outlining their jury ability. Moreover, Albania achieves this despite performing last when many in the crowd would have been preparing to leave early to get to Euroclub. Many consider last on to be a poisoned chalice, especially now voting opens from the start of the show. However, top ten results for Armenia 2016 and Italy 2018 show that if the song is strong enough, it can resonate with the jury and televote.
In regards to Greece. Based on the odds boost and streaming stats the diaspora is alerted. The top ten ticket countries are all of Western origin, with the UK and Australia being the two standouts with Greek diaspora. With the Ex-Yugo wipeout in the Semi-Finals, this vote will galvanise towards Greece and Albania. In 2013 this resulted in a sixth place result in the Grand Final for Greece.
Finally, we turn to the host nation Switzerland. The hosts are performing 19th in the running order with Voyage. In the last four contest, this position in the running order has achieved top ten results. However, the home crowd only managed to place Zoë Më in 12th. A surprise, when Swiss fans rank in first place for overall ticket sales, with France in fourth. Maybe this can attributed to Switzerland needing to be seen down the camera for its camera trickery. It is also a slower tempo entry for a party crowd to engage with.
The Eurovision Audience Poll thanks you!
The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 will take place tonight at 20:00 BST. Twenty-six acts will battle for Eurovision glory. Make sure you tune in to find out who will take the trophy home and to see where we’ll be travelling for Eurovision next year!
On behalf of the five partaking fan media platforms ESC Insight,12 Points From America, ESCXTRA, Eurovix and That Eurovision Site, we would like to thank you all for your interest and engagement with the third edition of the Eurovision Audience Polls. It is safe to say: We will be back next year!
