Editorials & Opinion

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Rediscovering 14 years of Eurovision odds: We analyse and reminisce

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Stockholm 2016

It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2016 contest. These odds were recorded from Oddschecker on April 13th, 31 days before the final on May 14th.

RankOddsCountryEntryEurovision
Placing
17/4๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ RussiaSergey Lazarev – You Are The Only One3rd
213/2๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท FranceAmir – J’ai cherchรฉ6th
311/1๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช SwedenFrans – If I Were Sorry5th
414/1๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ AustraliaDami Im – Sound Of Silence2nd
520/1๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น MaltaIra Losco – Walk On Water12th
620/1๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ UkraineJamala – 19441st
722/1๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ ArmeniaIveta Mukuchyan – LoveWave7th
822/1๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป LatviaJusts – Heartbeat15th
925/1๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ SerbiaSanja Vuฤiฤ‡ ZAA – Goodbye (Shelter)18th
1033/1๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ SpainBarei – Say Yay!22nd
1135/1๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ BulgariaPoli Genova – If Love Was A Crime4th
1240/1๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น ItalyFrancesca Michielin – No Degree Of Separation16th
1345/1๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท CroatiaNina Kraljiฤ‡ – Lighthouse23rd
1450/1๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ PolandMichaล‚ Szpak – Color Of Your Life8th
1550/1๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ The NetherlandsDouwe Bob – Slow Down11th

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 6th in the odds.
  • 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
  • 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.

Since 2007, 2016 is the most predictable contest so far according to the odds. 11 of the top 15 at Eurovision were placed inside the top 15 of the odds a month prior to the contest. Nevertheless, Ukraine‘s eventual victory wasn’t quite on the horizon with the odds seemingly suggesting Jamala be more of an each-way contender rather than an outright winner. Malta‘s Ira Losco is the next returning artist to have been overhyped by the odds. Although for a change, Poli Genova’s return for Bulgaria was under-predicted by the odds and surprised many by going top 5 despite being a fan favourite.

The biggest positive surprises last year were the top 10 finishes for Lithuania and Belgium. Neither Donny Montell or Laura Tesoro was in the top 15 of the odds. Nevertheless, their slick, professional and upbeat performances wowed audiences on the night to overachieve against their odds!

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Kyiv 2017

It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2017 contest in Kyiv. These odds were recorded from Oddschecker on April 21st, 22 days before the final on May 13th.

RankOddsCountryEntryEurovision
Placing
113/10๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น ItalyFrancesco Gabbani – Occidentali’s Karma6th
213/2๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ BulgariaKristian Kostov – Beautiful Mess2nd
39/1๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช SwedenRobin Bengtsson – I Can’t Go On5th
414/1๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น PortugalSalvador Sobral – Amar Pelos Dois1st
520/1๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช BelgiumBlanche – City Lights4th
633/1๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ AustraliaIsaiah – Don’t Come Easy9th
733/1๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ ArmeniaArtsvik – Fly With Me18th
840/1๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท FranceAlma – Requiem12th
950/1๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ AzerbaijanDihaj – Skeletons14th
1050/1๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ DenmarkAnja – Where I Am20th
1150/1๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ HungaryJoci Pรกpai – Origo8th
1266/1๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท GreeceDemy – This Is Love19th
1380/1๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด RomaniaIlinca ft. Alex Florea – Yodel It!7th
14100/1๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ The NetherlandsOG3NE – Lights And Shadows11th
15100/1๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช EstoniaKoit Toome & Laura – VeronaSF (14th)

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 4th in the odds.
  • 80% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
  • 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.

Stockholm 2016’s odds were the first to correctly predict 11 of the top 15 finishers. Nevertheless, Kyiv 2017 managed the exact same feat while also predicting four of the top 5 – one more than Stockholm’s pre-contest odds predicted. Therefore, it seems that the contest really is becoming more predictable…

However, clear favourites Italy were not able to live up to the hype placing 6th in the grand final. The success of the rest of the top 5 was foreseen, with the clear exception of Moldova. Indeed, Sunstroke Project was available at over 100/1 to win the contest and could’ve been a great each-way bet for those who believed in Hey Mamma. Portugal‘s record-breaking victory wasn’t always destined to be on the cards, with Salvador only 4th favourite to win prior to rehearsals kicking off at the end of April.

Norway‘s JOWST was never considered to be in contention, so the 10th place for Grab the Moment would have been a positive surprise for the Norwegians. On the other hand, it was Koit Toome & Laura from Estonia, both returnees to Eurovision, who was the fan favourites to fall. The jury was not impressed with Verona in the second semi-final, ultimately causing the biggest shock from the 2017 semi-finals.

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Lisbon 2018

It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2018 contest in Lisbon. These odds were recorded from Skybet on April 16th, 26 days before the final on May 12th.

RankOddsCountryEntryEurovision
Placing
17/4๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ IsraelNetta – TOY1st
211/2๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ BulgariaEQUINOX – Bones14th
313/2๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech RepublicMikolas Josef – Lie To Me6th
48/1๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ AustraliaJessica Mauboy – We Got Love20th
59/1๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช EstoniaElina Nechayeva – La Forza8th
616/1๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช SwedenBenjamin Ingrosso – Dance You Off7th
720/1๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท FranceMadame Monsieur – Mercy13th
820/1๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด NorwayAlexander Rybak – That’s How You Write A Song15th
925/1๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช BelgiumSennek – A Matter Of TimeSF (12th)
1025/1๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ SpainAmaia & Alfred – Tu Canciรณn23rd
1128/1๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท GreeceYianna Terzi – Oniro MouSF (14th)
1233/1๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น ItalyErmal Meta & Fabrizio Moro – Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente5th
1340/1๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ The NetherlandsWaylon – Outlaw In ‘Em18th
1450/1๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ FinlandSaara Aalto – Monsters25th
1566/1๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น AustriaCesรกr Sampson – Nobody But You3rd

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
  • 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
  • 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.

After Stockholm and Kyiv were two of the most predictable contests in memory in terms of similarities to the pre-contest betting odds, Lisbon was arguably one of the most unpredictable. Whilst Israel was correctly predicted as the winner, the rest of the eventual top five were much further down the odds.

Most notably we must point out Cyprus and Germany, neither of which were inside the top 15 of the betting odds less than a month before the Eurovision 2018 grand final. This is even more extraordinary when you consider that on the day of the final, Eleni Foureira was even favourite to take the crown! Both of these acts had arguably two of the strongest stage shows in Lisbon, with Eleni’s outrageous energy and Michael’s emotional LED screen.

Austria‘s Cesรกr Sampson was almost a third name to add to the list of top 5 shockers, only 15th in the odds a month before his eventual top three finish. No one expected Austria’s jury victory in Lisbon, and this largely was the cause of Austria’s podium placing.

Belgium and Greece, both in and around the top 10 of the odds, both failed to make it out of the so-called “bloodbath” that was the first semi-final in 2018. Although lacklustre stage presentations from both meant that it was perhaps the unfancied ZiBBZ from Switzerland that became the most surprising non-qualifiers.

Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…

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