Editorials & Opinion

🇪🇺 Rediscovering 14 years of Eurovision odds: We analyse and reminisce

🇮🇱 Tel Aviv 2019

It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2019 contest in Tel Aviv. These odds were recorded from Eurovision World on April 13th, 35 days before the final on May 18th. As Eurovision World is a comparison site, we’ve taken the shortest odds available for each country.

RankOddsCountryEntryEurovision
Placing
13/2🇳🇱 The NetherlandsDuncan Laurence – Arcade1st
219/4🇨🇭 SwitzerlandLuca Hänni – She Got Me4th
35/1🇷🇺 RussiaSergey Lazarev – Scream3rd
413/2🇮🇹 ItalyMahmood – Soldi2nd
57/1🇸🇪 SwedenJohn Lundvik – Too Late For Love5th
612/1🇮🇸 IcelandHatari – Hatrið mun sigra10th
720/1🇨🇾 CyprusTamta – Replay13th
825/1🇳🇴 NorwayKEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky6th
925/1🇵🇹 PortugalConan Osíris – TelemóveisSF (15th)
1028/1🇬🇷 GreeceKaterine Duska – Better Love21st
1128/1🇲🇹 MaltaMichela – Chameleon14th
1233/1🇦🇲 ArmeniaSrbuk – Walking OutSF (16th)
1333/1🇩🇰 DenmarkLeonora – Love Is Forever12th
1433/1🇫🇷 FranceBilal Hassani – Roi16th
1533/1🇸🇮 SloveniaZala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi15th

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.
  • 100% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.
  • 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.

The most recent completed contest, Tel Aviv in 2019, was arguably the most predictable contest of those that we have analysed in this article. For the first time, the odds predicted the top 5 nations with 100% accuracy… and almost in order to with just Switzerland and Italy swapping places in the final results.

The biggest surprise of 2019 was North Macedonia‘s Tamara Todevska whose victory in the jury vote took her to an impressive seventh place for her nation, a personal best finish for the Balkan nation. Also making the top 10 despite not featuring in the top 15 of the odds a month before were eighth-placed Chingiz from Azerbaijan and ninth-placed Kate Miller-Heidke from Australia. Interestingly, both of these nations were amongst those most praised for their innovative staging performances, something that couldn’t have been anticipated prior to rehearsals.

On the other hand, Armenia and Portugal were the nations fancied to do well that failed to qualify for the final in Tel Aviv. Whilst Srbuk from Armenia could’ve suffered from opening the second semi-final, Portugal’s Conan Osíris had no such disadvantage. Both Walking Out and Telemóveis were amongst the entries most unique in style and perhaps dark and inaccessible staging concepts were too much for the Eurovision voters to enjoy. Greece‘s underperformance relative to the odds could also be linked to these reasons, with the artistry and quirkiness of Better Love finishing towards the lower end in the final.

🇪🇺 Eurovision 2020

It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the eventually cancelled 2020 contest. These odds were recorded from Eurovision World on March 18th, the day of the contest’s cancellation. As Eurovision World is a comparison site, we’ve taken the shortest odds available for each country excluding those bookmakers that hadn’t updated the odds in the days preceding the cancellation.

RankOddsCountryEntry
14/1🇧🇬 BulgariaVICTORIA – Tears Getting Sober
24/1🇷🇺 RussiaLittle Big – Uno
34/1🇨🇭 SwitzerlandGjon’s Tears – Répondez-moi
422/5🇱🇹 LithuaniaThe Roop – On Fire
59/2🇮🇸 IcelandDaði og Gagnamagnið – Think About Things
611/2🇮🇹 ItalyDiodato – Fai Rumore
78/1🇩🇪 GermanyBen Dolic – Violent Thing
89/1🇷🇴 RomaniaROXEN – Alcohol You
910/1🇲🇹 MaltaDestiny – All Of My Love
1012/1🇦🇿 AzerbaijanEfendi – Cleopatra
1118/1🇸🇪 SwedenThe Mamas – Move
1219/1🇳🇴 NorwayUlrikke – Attention
1320/1🇦🇺 AustraliaMontaigne – Don’t Break Me
1425/1🇩🇰 DenmarkBen & Tan – YES
1525/1🇳🇱 The NetherlandsJeangu Macrooy – Grow

Analysis

Whilst we will not include this contest in our analysis for obvious reasons, I’m sure you’ll find it fascinating to look back at what could have been!

🇳🇱 Rotterdam 2021

It’s now time to look forward to the 2021 contest in Rotterdam and record the odds ready for analysis this time next year! These odds were recorded from bet365 on March 29th, 54 days before the final on May 22nd.

RankOddsCountryEntry
110/3🇲🇹 MaltaDestiny – Je Me Casse
210/3🇨🇭 SwitzerlandGjon’s Tears – Tout l’Univers
313/2🇫🇷 FranceBarbara Pravi – Voilà
48/1🇧🇬 BulgariaVICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old
59/1🇮🇹 ItalyMåneskin – Zitti E Buoni
611/1🇸🇪 SwedenTusse – Voices
714/1🇮🇸 IcelandDaði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years
814/1🇱🇹 LithuaniaThe Roop – Discoteque
922/1🇨🇾 CyprusElena Tsagrinou – El Diablo
1033/1🇫🇮 FinlandBlind Channel – Dark Side
1133/1🇳🇴 NorwayTIX – Fallen Angel
1240/1🇬🇷 GreeceStefania – Last Dance
1340/1🇲🇩 MoldovaNatalia Gordienko – Sugar
1440/1🇷🇺 RussiaManizha – Russian Woman
1540/1🇸🇲 San MarinoSenhit – Adrenalina

Now without further ado, it’s time to analyse all of the statistics we’ve collected over the past fourteen years and find out just how accurate bookmakers are in predicting the results in May…

Our journey down memory lane and our final analysis continues on the next page…

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