Our running order analysis for semi-final 2

The Eurovision channel has released the running order of both semi-finals, including both the countries competing in them and the automatic qualifiers performing during the shows. We look closer to the second semi-final: who are the winners and the losers of this order? What can we expect from it?

The Running order itself

The running order announced tonight for the first semi-final was as follows :

• 1 – 🇦🇺 Australia – Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”
• 2 – 🇲🇪 Montenegro – Nina Žižić – “Dobrodošli”
• 3 – 🇮🇪 Ireland – Emmy – “Laika Party”
• 4 – 🇱🇻 Latvia – Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi”
• 5 – 🇦🇲 Armenia – Parg – “Survivor”
• 6 – 🇦🇹 Austria – JJ – “Wasted Love”
• AQ – 🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Remember Monday – “What the Hell Just Happened?”
• 7 – 🇬🇷 Greece – Klavdia – “Asteromata”
• 8 – 🇱🇹 Lithuania – Katarsis – “Tavo akys”
• 9 – 🇲🇹 Malta – Miriana Conte – “Serving”
• 10 – 🇬🇪 Georgia – Mariam Shangelia – “Freedom”
• AQ – 🇫🇷 France – Louane – “Maman”
• 11 – 🇩🇰 Denmark – Sissal – “Hallucination”
• 12 – 🇨🇿 Czechia – Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”
• 13 – 🇱🇺 Luxembourg – Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”
• 14 – 🇮🇱 Israel – Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”
• AQ – 🇩🇪 Germany – Abor & Tynna – “Baller”
• 15 – 🇷🇸 Serbia – Princ – “Mila”
• 16 – 🇫🇮 Finland – Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”

AQ means “Automatic Qualifier”.

Risqué bookens

A classic start

It is a general rule of thumb that a Eurovision show should start and finish with an uptempo song. With the allocation draw results from late January, Australia, Armenia and Ireland felt like possible openers. In the end, the “Milkshake Man” will welcome audiences back in Basel. It may seem like a risky choice, with the sexual undertones of the song: this likely means the staging will not be too over-the-top in that regard, with younger viewers still up at this time.

The sequence that follows is more in line with the “traditionally held views” in term of running order : following the uptempo song, slot #2 is filled by a ballad that lowers the energy, and brings a female entrant after a male one (Montenegro). Although this spot is less “deadly” than in the final, it remains a ad omen for the Balkan country on its return, despite Serbia’s televote support.

Erika, komming at the close

In the second half, two entries could close the contest with a strong send-off: “Serving” and “Ich Komme”. Both are dance tracks featuring a strong female performer, with spicy stagings incoming. Both had to be very far from each other, and so they are: Malta will open the second half, and Finland will close it. “Ich Komme” was already used as a closer in its national final UMK, to great effect (although with less entries in competition), and should make a very strong impact at the very end, especially after a male Balkan ballad from Serbia.

The way to Austria

Following the first two slot, the semi-final will then gently get us to one of the main favourite of this year, Austria.

• 3 – 🇮🇪 Ireland – Emmy – “Laika Party”
• 4 – 🇱🇻 Latvia – Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi”
• 5 – 🇦🇲 Armenia – Parg – “Survivor”
• 6 – 🇦🇹 Austria – JJ – “Wasted Love”

“Wasted Love” has often been compared to last year’s winner, “The Code”. The comparison has limits, but like “The Code”, it will perform in the middle of the first half, in slot #6 (against #4 for Nemo last year, in the second semi-final too). After the classic contrast of the uptempo opener and the slow number two, viewers will then be set on a strange course to Austria.

Slot #3 would usually be used for “ethnic” or “original” songs in their national language (think Russia 2021, Serbia 2022, or Greece 2024). Latvia could have fit that bill, but is separated from Montenegro by Ireland. The inversion could have created a crescendo of energy : from the slow “Dobrodošli”, to a faster ethnic song with an immersive sound but with limited instrumentals in “Bur man Laimi”, then to the faster “Laika Party” and its enthusiasm, and finally the explosion of “Survivor” followed by what is expected to be an impressive performance by JJ.

Instead, the energy will go up (“Laika Party”) and slightly down (“Bur Man Laimi”), giving more visibility to both entries, before getting to the explosive Armenia, and the even more explosive Austria. An ad-break in-between could give TV viewers the occasion to breathe, and may be made necessary by props on both sides. If not, it would have to follow Austria. In this situation, though, “Survivor” will likely be overshadowed by “Wasted Love”, and may look messier compared to what could be a very “clean”, operatic performance by JJ.

The British bloc

In the first semi-final, the sequence of entries form #9 to #12 formed, in my opinion, an “Italian bloc” which would bolster the Italian vote in favour of its historical friends, San Marino and Albania. In the second semi-final, something similar happens with the United Kingdom, a bit earlier.

• AQ – 🇬🇧 United Kingdom – Remember Monday – “What the Hell Just Happened?”
• 7 – 🇬🇷 Greece – Klavdia – “Asteromata”
• 8 – 🇱🇹 Lithuania – Katarsis – “Tavo akys”
• 9 – 🇲🇹 Malta – Miriana Conte – “Serving”

The UK comes after song #6, Austria, and may come after an ad break (which may alternatively be placed between Armenia and Austria, both likely to need large props or setups). The British public coming just for the performance (as it happens in most countries, there is a surge of TV viewers for one’s own entry) may stay for a few performances : Greece will benefit from its Greek and Cypriot diaspora, and Lithuania will do the same. Malta would not benefit from it in the same way, but it remains an English-speaking country, with a song in English, and potential for the story of its last-minute changes going into the mainstream British media.

The yo-yo of the second half

The second half is a funny business : some of the choices were expected (Finland closing, Israel put late in the order, etc.) but the general trend is one of alternance: uptempo, dance tracks, followed by slower songs, making sure no demographic stays in unfamiliar territory for too long.

The second half opens with Malta, and will then follow with Georgia, which is the perfect foil: one of the wildest song of the year, then one of the most traditional-sounding one. But there is a point when there can be too much contrast…

A second automatic qualifiers follows Georgia: France. “Maman” will likely be a much more impactful entry than “Freedom” as a power ballad, and this sandwich should be enough to destroy Georgia’s remaining chances at qualification.

The rest is pretty self-explanatory : France will be followed by Denmark (female, uptempo, pop), after which will come Czechia (male ballad, despite the dance break), Luxembourg (female, uptempo, pop), Israel (female, ballad), Germany (female, uptempo), Serbia (male, Balkan ballad) and finally Finland (female, spicy pop).

This is a very simple alternance of up and low energy, which does not particularly help any song, except maybe some of the slower ones. Serbia has a good slot in absolute terms, will be sandwiched between “Baller” and “Ich Komme” during the evening, with Israel’s entry replacing Germany’s in the recap : will it stand out or will it be drowned in the comparison? There are good arguments on both sides, but I would lean towards the latter opetion.

Compared to the first semi-final, which has longer crescendo and decrescendo of energy, this may feel much more binary. But this should not be the case, because songs are not just “levels of energy”: this semi-final also shows a diversity of genres and languages that should create the nuances of a lively, interesting competition and TV show.

Who will qualify?

This is by no means ESCXTRA’s prediction, but it is mine with the information we have right now :

• Safe qualifiers
  • Israel
  • Austria
  • Finland
  • Malta
• Likely qualifiers
  • Lithuania
  • Greece
  • Luxembourg
• Tossup qualifiers
  • Australia
  • Denmark
  • Czechia
  • Armenia
  • Latvia
  • Ireland

What do you think of our analysis? Do you agree with our findings? Who do you think will qualify from this semi-final? Tell us more in the comments below or on social media at @escxtra!