In addition to our annual Press Poll, this year we worked with ESC Insight, 12 Points From America, Eurovoix and That Eurovision Site to conduct The Eurovision 2025 Audience Poll. Members of the five participating platforms approached audience members leaving the St. Jakobshalle after each evening preview show to ask them who their favourite of the night was. Now we take a further look into the data from each poll and how they stacked up against the Eurovision 2025 results.
Examining the Press Poll and Audience Poll results
In this article, we take a closer inspection of the three Press and Audience Polls conducted over the course of Eurovision week. On the ground in Basel, we asked members of the accredited press to vote for their favourites following each of the three daytime dress rehearsals. Later in the evenings, with the teamwork of five fan media platforms, we approached members of the public leaving the venue to ask for their favourite of the night. Of course, these polls are bit of fun. However, they can provide early clues into the overall results. Think of the Press Poll as a potential indicator of the jury results. Whilst the Audience Poll can be seen as a marker of televote potential; with the election night exit poll snapshot it provides.
How do these polls stack up against the results in a year where the jury and televoters had such strong disagreement?
Semi-Final 1
From analysing the data across both polls to the actual results of Semi-Final 1, there was a fairly agreeable consensus. The polls accurately predicted 8 out 10 qualifiers. The variations of difference between the results, were kept to small margins. Most, only within one or two of their actual finishing position.
The polls correctly called the positions of Albania, Iceland and Norway. However, the polls overestimated Belgium’s chances. This could be due to the native crowd in the audience comprising of strong Belgian allies in French, Dutch and German locals. The largest variation came from the eventual Semi-Final winner. The polls did not predict the effects of the diaspora support for Ukraine.
Since the Audience Poll was conducted in Switzerland and Switzerland voted in this Semi-Final, we decided to look closer at the Swiss televote in comparison to the polls. Also the home nation accounted for the highest number of Eurovision ticket sales.
As the host nation, Switzerland’s televote deviated wildly from the multi-national audience that attended the first evening preview show for Semi-Final 1. Even though Switzerland were the biggest ticket purchasers for Eurovision 2025. However, Switzerland did vote for 8 of the 10 Audience Poll favourites. Of course, one of the obvious deviations is the recognition of Portugal from the Swiss televoters. Otherwise, the neighbourly love for Netherlands held up in both votes and the Albanian diaspora in Switzerland.
Semi-Final 2
In the Semi-Final 2 stats, a more stable picture presents itself. Overall, the combined average of both polls successfully predicted 9 out of 10 qualifiers. Only missing the shock non-qualification for Australia. Of course, Australia were in the top 10 of ticket sales by nation. Many of these tickets will have been for their competing Semi-Final.
Nobody predicted the winner of the Semi-Final. Once again, the anomalies present themselves in the underestimation of the diaspora pull for Latvia and Lithuania. Although their results with the Press indicated their jury appeal. The audience response to Luxembourg proved to be in line with results, with the press overestimating its chances.
In the second Semi-Final Germany and the United Kingdom were able to vote. Since they featured in second and third place respectively in the top 10 of ticket sales, we can see how their televotes look in comparison to the Audience Poll.
Despite Germany being in second place on the list of ticket sales by nation, the televote disagreed wildly with the Audience Poll. Some of this can be attributed to the party atmosphere created in the arena. A live audience becomes drawn to the high energy entries that may not translate as well down the camera to the viewer at home. We see this in the high result for Greece in the German televote. The performance had the emotion and intimacy that appealed to the television viewers.
Although the UK only placed third in the ticket sales list, the UK televote shows a more agreeable nature with the poll. There is obvious appreciation for songs in English from the countries that the UK have close bonds with. Of course, the UK televote favours its diaspora kinship with Lithuania and Latvia. Nearly 200k Lithuanian-born and 100k Latvian-born citizens currently reside in the UK as per the 2021 census statistics. The main deviation is the shock 12th place in the UK televote for Austria, the eventual winner of the contest.
Grand Final
Finally, we move onto the Grand Final. In a year where the televote and jury displayed strong disagreement, the combined average of the polls managed to predict seven of the eventual top 10. However, polls failed to predict the winner of the contest, with polling winner and the bookies favourite, Sweden only finishing in fourth.
Among the notable differences in the results is Finland. Many hoped Käärijä’s magic would manifest once again. Yet it seems the infamous, ‘OGAE Poll curse’ where at least one of top four in the OGAE Poll results, finishes outside the top 10, struck Erika down. Instead it was Käärijä’s other friend, Tommy Cash who benefited. The Audience Poll top 10 showing a tiny indication of what was to come for Estonia. However, neither poll expected the Baltic nation to achieve its best result since winning the contest in 2001.
As is customary, the large contingent of travelling Spanish Eurofans greatly overestimated their chances. This resulted in the largest variation of 18 places in the polls against the actual result. Although it should be noted that a lot of the uptempo entries that engage a live crowd, finished lower in the final table. Besides Spain, this includes San Marino, Denmark, Finland and Malta. This translated into the polling of the Press as well. Similar to the actual jury, the Press responded well to Switzerland and Greece.
Elsewhere, we see that the polls heavily underestimated the impact of the diaspora vote and televote power of Ukraine, Israel, Italy and Latvia. who placed 17, 15, 14 and 11 positions higher respectively.
The pollsters only managed to accurately predict the placement of Armenia. A stark contrast to the five correct placements in the 2024 data. A total of nine entries were predicted to within three places.
Once again we can delve into the televotes of the top three ticket sale nations – Switzerland, Germany and United Kingdom. To compare their results against the polls.
Unsurprisingly, It is Switzerland that is most in line with the Audience Poll as the nation with the largest volume of ticket sales. Overall the Swiss televote has eleven entries within three placements of the poll. Meanwhile the German and UK televotes only have seven within three placements. As well as this, Switzerland’s televote shared six of the live audience’s top 10. The nearest central European neighbours benefiting most across the voting.
Much like the Semi-Final voting, the UK favours the diaspora links in Poland. Lithuania and Latvia and Greece. Again, there is strong aversion to non-diaspora non-English entries. In particular, the UK televote reacting harshly to the French language entries.
About the 2025 Press Poll and Eurovision Audience Poll
You can view the previous results below:
- Audience Poll Results: Semi-Final 1 (12 May)
- Audience Poll Results: Semi-Final 2 (14 May)
- Audience Poll Results: Grand Final (16 May)
In addition, accredited members of the press were able to follow proceedings during a closed set viewing of the dress rehearsal. Only on-site press attending the viewing were able to watch the full run through. No streams were available either in the press centre or on the online press centre.
The results of all three Press Polls and further information can be found below:
- Press Poll Results: Semi-Final 1 (12 May)
- Press Poll Results: Semi-Final 2 (14 May)
- Press Poll Results: Grand Final (16 May)
What are your thoughts on the poll results? Let us know! Be sure to stay updated by following @ESCXTRA on Twitter, @escxtra.bsky.social on Bluesky, @escxtra on Instagram, @escxtra on TikTok and liking our Facebook page for the latest updates! Also, be sure to follow us on Spotify for the latest music from your favourite Eurovision acts. As well as YouTube to see interviews and reactions to the latest news ahead of Eurovision 2026.
