Analysis: How accurate were the Press Poll and Audience Poll for Eurovision 2024?

In addition to our annual Press Poll, this year we worked with ESC Insight, The Euro Trip Podcast, That Eurovision Site, 12 Points From America and OGAE Sweden to conduct The Eurovision 2024 Audience Poll. Members of the six participating platforms approached audience members leaving the Malmö Arena after each evening preview show to ask them who their favourite of the night was. Now we take a further look into the data from each poll and how they stacked up against the Eurovision 2024 results.

Examining the Press Poll and Audience Poll results

In this article, we take a closer inspection of the three Press and Audience Polls conducted over the course of last week. On the ground in Malmö, we asked members of the accredited press to vote for their favourites following each of the three daytime dress rehearsals. Later in the evenings, with the teamwork of six fan media platforms, we approached members of the public leaving the venue to ask for their favourite of the night. Now of course, these polls are bit of fun. However, they can provide early clues into the overall results. Think of the Press Poll as a potential indicator of the jury results. Whilst the Audience Poll can be seen as a marker of televote potential, with the election night exit poll snapshot it provides.

Semi-Final 1

From analysing the data across both polls to the actual results of Semi-Final 1, there was a fairly agreeable consensus. The polls accurately predicted 9 out 10 qualifiers. As well as correctly predicting the surprise non-qualification for Poland. The variations of difference between the results, were kept to small margins. Most, only within one or two of their actual finishing position.

However, the polls failed to account for the Balkan solidarity that pulled Serbia over the line into 10th spot. Also, both polls overestimated Australia’s chances, whilst the polls underestimated the effect of Luxembourg’s return after 31-years. Meanwhile, the audience correctly called Croatia as the winner of Semi-Final 1.

Since the Audience Poll was conducted in Sweden and Sweden voted in this Semi-Final, we decided to look closer at the Swedish televote in comparison to the polls. As well as this, we can compare the results against the United Kingdom televote. Curiously, the UK ranked as the number one country for Eurovision 2024 ticket sales, surpassing host nation Sweden in second place.

As the host nation, Sweden’s televote deviated wildly from the multi-national audience that attended the first evening preview show for Semi-Final 1. Even though Sweden were among the biggest ticket purchasers for Eurovision 2024. However, Sweden did vote for 9 of the 10 Audience Poll favourites. Of course, one of the obvious deviations is the neighbourly appreciation for Iceland in Sweden’s televote.

Meanwhile, it is a completely different story when we compare the poll to the UK televote. Overall, the UK televote picked the same top 10 as the audience in the arena. As the biggest ticket buyers of Eurovision 2024, this comes as little surprise. Moreover, there is a minimal disparity between the UK televote and the polling. The most notable differences are the UK televote heavily favouring Lithuania and Poland. As we know, Poland is estimated to total 7% of the UK’s foreign-born population. With Lithuania also having strong diaspora in the UK.

Semi-Final 2

In the Semi-Final 2 stats, the unpredictable nature of this show was clear. Despite this, the combined average of both polls successfully predicted 9 out of 10 qualifiers. Only missing the shock qualification for Latvia over Belgium. The variation of difference is much larger in Semi-Final 2. Nobody predicted the winner of Semi-Final 2, whilst Latvia was greatly underestimated. The audience response to Norway proved to be closer to the actual results, with the press overestimating its chances.

Grand Final

Finally, we move onto the Grand Final. Impressively, the combined average of the polls called the same top two as the actual results. In total, the combined results of the polls predicted 7 of the top 10. Overall, the results broadly reflected the eventual results with minimal variation. However, there are a few notable exceptions. At the lower end of the actual scoreboard Austria, Spain and Norway failed to resonate with the TV audience and jurors. Overrated by 14, 13 and 12 places, respectively. Yet the Press had been wowed by the staging of Norway in rehearsals. Meanwhile, it is clear Austria and Spain engaged the live arena crowds in a way that didn’t appeal when it comes to building voting support.

Elsewhere, we see that the polls underestimated the return of Luxembourg, with Tali finishing a staggering 11 places higher. Furthermore, the ballads of Germany, Portugal, Serbia and Latvia, received more appreciation in the true results.

The pollsters accurately placed five entries in total – Switzerland, Croatia, France, Finland and Slovenia.

*Note: The Netherlands originally placed third in the Audience Poll before the official confirmation of Joost’s disqualification from the Grand Final of Eurovision 2024.

Once again, we can delve further into the televote results of both Sweden and the United Kingdom to compare their results against the polls.

Only 6 of the Audience Poll top 10 made it into the Swedish televote during the Grand Final. Almost sneaking into Sweden’s points, Latvia was highly underestimated by the pollsters. Resulting in the largest deviation of 13 placements. Similarly, Sweden also showed high appreciation to Lithuania, with a variation of 10 placings. Preferring to back the Baltics and Nordic neighbour, Finland over their Scandinavian sister in Norway. Meanwhile, the Audience Poll overestimated the lack of wider appeal for Austria, Spain and the UK for audiences watching at home.

In contrast to Sweden, the UK televote follows the trends in the Audience Poll much more closely. This is partly due to the UK purchasing the highest amount of tickets for Eurovision 2024. However, there are some outliers if we look closer. The standouts are the UK televote giving Lithuania 8 points and Latvia 4 points. Resulting in variations of 15 and 17 respectively. Of course, some of this can be attributed to the large Lithuanian diaspora in the UK. This has a knock-on benefit to Lithuania’s Baltic neighbour, Latvia as well. In the eleven appearances Latvia has made in Eurovision finals, only once have they not received points from the UK.

About the 2024 Press Poll and Eurovision Audience Poll

You can view the previous results below:

In addition, accredited members of the press were able to follow proceedings, either at the press centre in Malmö or via the online press centre. After today’s acts took to the stage, we invited members of the media to vote for their THREE favourite rehearsals of the day.

The results of all three Press Polls and further information can be found below:

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